Articles | Volume 16, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1409-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1409-2025
Research article
 | 
04 Sep 2025
Research article |  | 04 Sep 2025

Future changes in runoff over western and central Europe: disentangling the hydrological behavior of CMIP6 models

Juliette Deman and Julien Boé

Related authors

Compound winter low-wind and cold events impacting the French electricity system: observed evolution and role of large-scale circulation
François Collet, Margot Bador, Julien Boé, Laurent Dubus, and Bénédicte Jourdier
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 25, 843–856, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-843-2025, 2025
Short summary
Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy
Colin G. Jones, Fanny Adloff, Ben B. B. Booth, Peter M. Cox, Veronika Eyring, Pierre Friedlingstein, Katja Frieler, Helene T. Hewitt, Hazel A. Jeffery, Sylvie Joussaume, Torben Koenigk, Bryan N. Lawrence, Eleanor O'Rourke, Malcolm J. Roberts, Benjamin M. Sanderson, Roland Séférian, Samuel Somot, Pier Luigi Vidale, Detlef van Vuuren, Mario Acosta, Mats Bentsen, Raffaele Bernardello, Richard Betts, Ed Blockley, Julien Boé, Tom Bracegirdle, Pascale Braconnot, Victor Brovkin, Carlo Buontempo, Francisco Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Italo Epicoco, Pete Falloon, Sandro Fiore, Thomas Frölicher, Neven S. Fučkar, Matthew J. Gidden, Helge F. Goessling, Rune Grand Graversen, Silvio Gualdi, José M. Gutiérrez, Tatiana Ilyina, Daniela Jacob, Chris D. Jones, Martin Juckes, Elizabeth Kendon, Erik Kjellström, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Matthew Mizielinski, Paola Nassisi, Michael Obersteiner, Pierre Regnier, Romain Roehrig, David Salas y Mélia, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michael Schulz, Enrico Scoccimarro, Laurent Terray, Hannes Thiemann, Richard A. Wood, Shuting Yang, and Sönke Zaehle
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1319–1351, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024, 2024
Short summary
An updated assessment of past and future warming over France based on a regional observational constraint
Aurélien Ribes, Julien Boé, Saïd Qasmi, Brigitte Dubuisson, Hervé Douville, and Laurent Terray
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 1397–1415, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1397-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1397-2022, 2022
Short summary

Cited articles

Allan, R. P., Barlow, M., Byrne, M. P., Cherchi, A., Douville, H., Fowler, H. J., Gan, T. Y., Pendergrass, A. G., Rosenfeld, D., Swann, A. L. S., Wilcox, L. J., and Zolina, O.: Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change, Ann. NY Acad. Sci., 1472, 49–75, https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14337, 2020. 
Berg, A. and Sheffield, J.: Evapotranspiration Partitioning in CMIP5 Models: Uncertainties and Future Projections, J. Clim., 32, 2653–2671, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0583.1, 2019. 
Boé, J.: Modulation of the summer hydrological cycle evolution over western Europe by anthropogenic aerosols and soil-atmosphere interactions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 7678–7685, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069394, 2016. 
Boé, J.: Interdependency in multimodel climate projections: Component replication and result similarity, Geophys. Res. Lett., 45, 2771–277, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL076829, 2018. 
Boé, J.: The physiological effect of CO2 on the hydrological cycle in summer over Europe and land-atmosphere interactions, Climatic Change, 167, 21, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03173-2, 2021. 
Download
Short summary
This article investigates the large uncertainties in future runoff changes over western and central Europe in projections from global climate models under a high-emissions scenario. Two main types of response are identified among the models, with half of them projecting a decrease in annual runoff and the other half showing little or no change. The outlier behavior observed in some models can be largely attributed to changes in large-scale circulation or to the physiological effect of CO2.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint