Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review
| 
30 Jul 2025
Review |
| 30 Jul 2025
| 30 Jul 2025
Tipping cascades between conflict and cooperation in climate change
Jürgen Scheffran
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Geography, Universität Hamburg, 20144 Hamburg, Germany
Weisi Guo
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Cranfield University, Bedford, MK43 0AL, UK
Florian Krampe
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Solna, 169 72, Sweden
Uche Okpara
Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Medway Campus, Chatham Maritime ME4 4TB, Kent, UK
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Short summary
To study tipping cascades in the climate–conflict nexus, a bi-stable tipping model analyses transitions between conflict and cooperation. The Lake Chad case demonstrates climate change as a risk multiplier combined with poor governance, lowering resilience and barriers of communities to conflict. Adaptive and anticipative governance can prevent tipping to violent conflict and induce positive tipping towards cooperation through civil conflict transformation and environmental peacebuilding.
To study tipping cascades in the climate–conflict nexus, a bi-stable tipping model analyses...
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