Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review
| 
30 Jul 2025
Review |
| 30 Jul 2025
| 30 Jul 2025
Tipping cascades between conflict and cooperation in climate change
Jürgen Scheffran
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Geography, Universität Hamburg, 20144 Hamburg, Germany
Weisi Guo
School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Cranfield University, Bedford, MK43 0AL, UK
Florian Krampe
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Solna, 169 72, Sweden
Uche Okpara
Natural Resources Institute, University of Greenwich, Medway Campus, Chatham Maritime ME4 4TB, Kent, UK
Related authors
Viktoria Spaiser, Sirkku Juhola, Sara M. Constantino, Weisi Guo, Tabitha Watson, Jana Sillmann, Alessandro Craparo, Ashleigh Basel, John T. Bruun, Krishna Krishnamurthy, Jürgen Scheffran, Patricia Pinho, Uche T. Okpara, Jonathan F. Donges, Avit Bhowmik, Taha Yasseri, Ricardo Safra de Campos, Graeme S. Cumming, Hugues Chenet, Florian Krampe, Jesse F. Abrams, James G. Dyke, Stefanie Rynders, Yevgeny Aksenov, and Bryan M. Spears
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1179–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024, 2024
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Short summary
In this paper, we identify potential negative social tipping points linked to Earth system destabilization and draw on related research to understand the drivers and likelihood of these negative social tipping dynamics, their potential effects on human societies and the Earth system, and the potential for cascading interactions and contribution to systemic risks.
Sibel Eker, Timothy M. Lenton, Tom Powell, Jürgen Scheffran, Steven R. Smith, Deepthi Swamy, and Caroline Zimm
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 789–800, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-789-2024, 2024
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Cascading effects through cross-system interactions are one of the biggest promises of positive tipping points to create rapid climate and sustainability action. Here, we review these in terms of their interactions with sociotechnical systems such as energy, transport, agriculture, society, and policy.
Grace W. Ngaruiya and Jürgen Scheffran
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 441–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-441-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-441-2016, 2016
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Climate change complicates rural conflict resolution dynamics and institutions. There is urgent need for conflict-sensitive adaptation in Africa. The study of social network data reveals three forms of fused conflict resolution arrangements in Loitoktok, Kenya. Where, extension officers, council of elders, local chiefs and private investors are potential conduits of knowledge. Efficiency of rural conflict resolution can be enhanced by diversification in conflict resolution actors and networks.
J. Schilling, R. Locham, T. Weinzierl, J. Vivekananda, and J. Scheffran
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 703–717, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-703-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-703-2015, 2015
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This article first discusses the effects of oil exploration on the vulnerability of pastoral communities to climate change. The effects are
found to be ambivalent, but mostly aggravating. Second, the article explores the (potential) effects of oil exploration on local conflict dynamics.
Findings suggest a risk of escalating company-community conflicts. These conflicts are mostly driven by unfulfilled community expectations for
employment, water and development.
M. Abid, J. Scheffran, U. A. Schneider, and M. Ashfaq
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 225–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-225-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-225-2015, 2015
Short summary
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Based on a farm household survey of 450 farmers, this study examined the adaptation to climate change and factors affecting the adoption of various adaptation measures at the farm level in Pakistan. The study demonstrates that awareness of climate change is widespread in the area, and farmers are adapting their crops to climate variability. However the adaptation process is constrained due to several factors such as lack of information, lack of money, lack of resources and shortage of water.
Viktoria Spaiser, Sirkku Juhola, Sara M. Constantino, Weisi Guo, Tabitha Watson, Jana Sillmann, Alessandro Craparo, Ashleigh Basel, John T. Bruun, Krishna Krishnamurthy, Jürgen Scheffran, Patricia Pinho, Uche T. Okpara, Jonathan F. Donges, Avit Bhowmik, Taha Yasseri, Ricardo Safra de Campos, Graeme S. Cumming, Hugues Chenet, Florian Krampe, Jesse F. Abrams, James G. Dyke, Stefanie Rynders, Yevgeny Aksenov, and Bryan M. Spears
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1179–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we identify potential negative social tipping points linked to Earth system destabilization and draw on related research to understand the drivers and likelihood of these negative social tipping dynamics, their potential effects on human societies and the Earth system, and the potential for cascading interactions and contribution to systemic risks.
Sibel Eker, Timothy M. Lenton, Tom Powell, Jürgen Scheffran, Steven R. Smith, Deepthi Swamy, and Caroline Zimm
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 789–800, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-789-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-789-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Cascading effects through cross-system interactions are one of the biggest promises of positive tipping points to create rapid climate and sustainability action. Here, we review these in terms of their interactions with sociotechnical systems such as energy, transport, agriculture, society, and policy.
Parya Broomandi, Xueyu Geng, Weisi Guo, Jong Ryeol Kim, Alessio Pagani, and David Topping
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-342, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-342, 2020
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
As a result of our novel graph-based reduced modeling, we are able to represent high-dimensional knowledge into a causal inference and stability framework.
Grace W. Ngaruiya and Jürgen Scheffran
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 441–452, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-441-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-441-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Climate change complicates rural conflict resolution dynamics and institutions. There is urgent need for conflict-sensitive adaptation in Africa. The study of social network data reveals three forms of fused conflict resolution arrangements in Loitoktok, Kenya. Where, extension officers, council of elders, local chiefs and private investors are potential conduits of knowledge. Efficiency of rural conflict resolution can be enhanced by diversification in conflict resolution actors and networks.
J. Schilling, R. Locham, T. Weinzierl, J. Vivekananda, and J. Scheffran
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 703–717, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-703-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-703-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
This article first discusses the effects of oil exploration on the vulnerability of pastoral communities to climate change. The effects are
found to be ambivalent, but mostly aggravating. Second, the article explores the (potential) effects of oil exploration on local conflict dynamics.
Findings suggest a risk of escalating company-community conflicts. These conflicts are mostly driven by unfulfilled community expectations for
employment, water and development.
M. Abid, J. Scheffran, U. A. Schneider, and M. Ashfaq
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 225–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-225-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-225-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Based on a farm household survey of 450 farmers, this study examined the adaptation to climate change and factors affecting the adoption of various adaptation measures at the farm level in Pakistan. The study demonstrates that awareness of climate change is widespread in the area, and farmers are adapting their crops to climate variability. However the adaptation process is constrained due to several factors such as lack of information, lack of money, lack of resources and shortage of water.
Related subject area
Topics: Climate change | Interactions: Human/Earth system interactions | Methods: Other methods
The aerosol pathway is crucial for observationally constraining climate sensitivity and anthropogenic forcing
Negative social tipping dynamics resulting from and reinforcing Earth system destabilization
Missing the (tipping) point: the effect of information about climate tipping points on public risk perceptions in Norway
ESD Ideas: Exoplanet, origins of life and biosphere researchers offer a perspective fundamental to ensuring humanity's future
Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Magne Aldrin, Terje K. Berntsen, Marit Holden, Ragnar Bang Huseby, Gunnar Myhre, and Trude Storelvmo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1435–1458, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1435-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1435-2024, 2024
Short summary
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Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing are central quantities in climate science that are uncertain and contribute to the spread in climate projections. To constrain them, we use observations of temperature and ocean heat content as well as prior knowledge of radiative forcings over the industrialized period. The estimates are sensitive to how aerosol cooling evolved over the latter part of the 20th century, and a strong aerosol forcing trend in the 1960s–1970s is not supported by our analysis.
Viktoria Spaiser, Sirkku Juhola, Sara M. Constantino, Weisi Guo, Tabitha Watson, Jana Sillmann, Alessandro Craparo, Ashleigh Basel, John T. Bruun, Krishna Krishnamurthy, Jürgen Scheffran, Patricia Pinho, Uche T. Okpara, Jonathan F. Donges, Avit Bhowmik, Taha Yasseri, Ricardo Safra de Campos, Graeme S. Cumming, Hugues Chenet, Florian Krampe, Jesse F. Abrams, James G. Dyke, Stefanie Rynders, Yevgeny Aksenov, and Bryan M. Spears
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1179–1206, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1179-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we identify potential negative social tipping points linked to Earth system destabilization and draw on related research to understand the drivers and likelihood of these negative social tipping dynamics, their potential effects on human societies and the Earth system, and the potential for cascading interactions and contribution to systemic risks.
Christina Nadeau, Manjana Milkoreit, Thomas Hylland Eriksen, and Dag Olav Hessen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 969–985, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-969-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-969-2024, 2024
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The paper examines how knowledge about climate tipping points (CTPs) influences public risk perceptions in Norway. Using an online survey, the study finds that only 13 % of Norwegians have good knowledge of climate tipping points. Communication about these tipping points had a modest effect, slightly increasing concern compared to general climate change information. The study highlights the need for further research on this topic, especially how to effectively communicate knowledge about CTPs.
Daniel Duzdevich, Arwen E. Nicholson, and Raphaëlle D. Haywood
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 929–932, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-929-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-929-2024, 2024
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Scientists exploring the histories of planets and life are uniquely positioned to communicate a perspective that is fundamental to our survival: humanity is wholly embedded in Earth and its biosphere. There is no escaping our planet and its history. Only policies that build on this perspective will contribute to a flourishing future for humanity. We offer a few brief glimpses of this cosmic perspective and call on our colleagues to acknowledge the powerful stories emanating from their work.
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Short summary
To study tipping cascades in the climate–conflict nexus, a bi-stable tipping model analyses transitions between conflict and cooperation. The Lake Chad case demonstrates climate change as a risk multiplier combined with poor governance, lowering resilience and barriers of communities to conflict. Adaptive and anticipative governance can prevent tipping to violent conflict and induce positive tipping towards cooperation through civil conflict transformation and environmental peacebuilding.
To study tipping cascades in the climate–conflict nexus, a bi-stable tipping model analyses...
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