Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025
Review
 | 
30 Jul 2025
Review |  | 30 Jul 2025

Tipping cascades between conflict and cooperation in climate change

Jürgen Scheffran, Weisi Guo, Florian Krampe, and Uche Okpara

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Interactive discussion

Status: closed

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1766', Anonymous Referee #1, 17 Oct 2023
    • AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Jürgen Scheffran, 23 Feb 2024
  • RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-1766', Anonymous Referee #2, 26 Jan 2024
    • AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Jürgen Scheffran, 23 Feb 2024

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (01 Mar 2024) by Jonathan Donges
AR by Jürgen Scheffran on behalf of the Authors (27 Apr 2024)  Author's response   Author's tracked changes   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (12 Jul 2024) by Jonathan Donges
RR by Anonymous Referee #3 (31 Jul 2024)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (01 Aug 2024)
RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (06 Aug 2024)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (11 Sep 2024) by Jonathan Donges
AR by Jürgen Scheffran on behalf of the Authors (23 Oct 2024)  Author's response 
EF by Anna Mirena Feist-Polner (28 Oct 2024)  Manuscript   Author's tracked changes 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (28 Jan 2025) by Jonathan Donges
RR by Anonymous Referee #5 (13 Feb 2025)
RR by Anonymous Referee #4 (27 Mar 2025)
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (17 Apr 2025) by Jonathan Donges
ED: Publish subject to technical corrections (20 Apr 2025) by Gabriele Messori (Chief editor)
AR by Jürgen Scheffran on behalf of the Authors (28 Apr 2025)  Author's response   Manuscript 
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Short summary
To study tipping cascades in the climate–conflict nexus, a bi-stable tipping model analyses transitions between conflict and cooperation. The Lake Chad case demonstrates climate change as a risk multiplier combined with poor governance, lowering resilience and barriers of communities to conflict. Adaptive and anticipative governance can prevent tipping to violent conflict and induce positive tipping towards cooperation through civil conflict transformation and environmental peacebuilding.
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