Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1197-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
Review
 | 
30 Jul 2025
Review |  | 30 Jul 2025

Tipping cascades between conflict and cooperation in climate change

Jürgen Scheffran, Weisi Guo, Florian Krampe, and Uche Okpara

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Short summary
To study tipping cascades in the climate–conflict nexus, a bi-stable tipping model analyses transitions between conflict and cooperation. The Lake Chad case demonstrates climate change as a risk multiplier combined with poor governance, lowering resilience and barriers of communities to conflict. Adaptive and anticipative governance can prevent tipping to violent conflict and induce positive tipping towards cooperation through civil conflict transformation and environmental peacebuilding.
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Tipping points in the Anthropocene
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