Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 16, issue 4
Research article
 | 
14 Jul 2025
Research article |  | 14 Jul 2025

A multi-model analysis of the decadal prediction skill for the North Atlantic ocean heat content

Teresa Carmo-Costa, Roberto Bilbao, Jon Robson, Ana Teles-Machado, and Pablo Ortega

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Short summary
Climate models can be used to skilfully predict decadal changes in North Atlantic ocean heat content. However, significant regional differences among these models reveal large uncertainties in the influence of external forcings. This study examines eight climate models to understand the differences in their predictive capacity for the North Atlantic, investigating the importance of external forcings and key model characteristics such as ocean stratification and the local atmospheric forcing.
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