A multi-model analysis of the decadal prediction skill for the North Atlantic ocean heat content

Carmo-Costa, Teresa; Bilbao, Roberto; Robson, Jon; Teles-Machado, Ana; Ortega, Pablo

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025

Articles | Volume 16, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1001-2025

© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 4

Research article

|

14 Jul 2025

Research article |

| 14 Jul 2025

A multi-model analysis of the decadal prediction skill for the North Atlantic ocean heat content

Teresa Carmo-Costa, Roberto Bilbao, Jon Robson, Ana Teles-Machado, and Pablo Ortega

Data sets

Quality-controlled ocean temperature and salinity profiles and monthly objective analyses with uncertainty estimates Met Office https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/en4/download-en4-2-2.html

Complete ERA5 from 1940: Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.143582cf

HadISST2.2.0.0: Monthly global sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature data Met Office https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst2

CMIP6 ESGF https://aims2.llnl.gov/search

Short summary

Climate models can be used to skilfully predict decadal changes in North Atlantic ocean heat content. However, significant regional differences among these models reveal large uncertainties in the influence of external forcings. This study examines eight climate models to understand the differences in their predictive capacity for the North Atlantic, investigating the importance of external forcings and key model characteristics such as ocean stratification and the local atmospheric forcing.