Articles | Volume 15, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-547-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-547-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
02 May 2024
Research article |
| 02 May 2024
| 02 May 2024
First comprehensive assessment of industrial-era land heat uptake from multiple sources
Faculty of Physical Sciences, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Geosciences Institute (IGEO, CSIC-UCM), Madrid, Spain
Jesús Fidel González-Rouco
Faculty of Physical Sciences, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain
Geosciences Institute (IGEO, CSIC-UCM), Madrid, Spain
Camilo Melo-Aguilar
Balearic Ocean Centre, Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO-CSIC), Palma de Mallorca, Spain
Norman Julius Steinert
NORCE, Norwegian Research Centre, Climate and Environment, Bergen, Norway
Elena García-Bustamante
Department of Energy, Research Centre for Energy, Environment and Technology (CIEMAT), Madrid, Spain
Philip de Vrese
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Johann Jungclaus
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Stephan Lorenz
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Stefan Hagemann
Institute of Coastal Systems – Analysis and Modeling, Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Geesthacht, Germany
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero
Department of Remote Sensing, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
Remote Sensing Centre for Earth System Research, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
Almudena García-García
Department of Remote Sensing, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Leipzig, Germany
Remote Sensing Centre for Earth System Research, Leipzig University, Leipzig, Germany
Hugo Beltrami
Climate and Atmospheric Sciences Institute, St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, Canada
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Evelien van Dijk, Johann Jungclaus, Stephan Lorenz, Claudia Timmreck, and Kirstin Krüger
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Xiaoxu Shi, Martin Werner, Carolin Krug, Chris M. Brierley, Anni Zhao, Endurance Igbinosa, Pascale Braconnot, Esther Brady, Jian Cao, Roberta D'Agostino, Johann Jungclaus, Xingxing Liu, Bette Otto-Bliesner, Dmitry Sidorenko, Robert Tomas, Evgeny M. Volodin, Hu Yang, Qiong Zhang, Weipeng Zheng, and Gerrit Lohmann
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Since the orbital parameters of the past are different from today, applying the modern calendar to the past climate can lead to an artificial bias in seasonal cycles. With the use of multiple model outputs, we found that such a bias is non-ignorable and should be corrected to ensure an accurate comparison between modeled results and observational records, as well as between simulated past and modern climates, especially for the Last Interglacial.
Almudena García-García, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, J. Fidel González-Rouco, and Elena García-Bustamante
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 413–428, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-413-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-413-2022, 2022
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Tobias Stacke and Stefan Hagemann
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7795–7816, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7795-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7795-2021, 2021
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Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Stephan J. Lorenz, Michael Sigl, Matthew Toohey, and Ulrike Herzschuh
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Matthias Gröger, Christian Dieterich, Jari Haapala, Ha Thi Minh Ho-Hagemann, Stefan Hagemann, Jaromir Jakacki, Wilhelm May, H. E. Markus Meier, Paul A. Miller, Anna Rutgersson, and Lichuan Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 939–973, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-939-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-939-2021, 2021
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Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, and Joel Finnis
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 581–600, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-581-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-581-2021, 2021
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Oliver Gutjahr, Nils Brüggemann, Helmuth Haak, Johann H. Jungclaus, Dian A. Putrasahan, Katja Lohmann, and Jin-Song von Storch
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 2317–2349, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2317-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-2317-2021, 2021
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Philipp de Vrese, Tobias Stacke, Thomas Kleinen, and Victor Brovkin
The Cryosphere, 15, 1097–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021, 2021
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With large amounts of carbon stored in frozen soils and a highly energy-limited vegetation the Arctic is very sensitive to changes in climate. Here our simulations with the land surface model JSBACH reveal a number of offsetting factors moderating the Arctic's net response to global warming. More importantly we find that the effects of climate change may not be fully reversible on decadal timescales, leading to substantially different CH4 emissions depending on whether the Arctic warms or cools.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, J. Fidel González-Rouco, and Elena García-Bustamante
Clim. Past, 17, 451–468, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-451-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-17-451-2021, 2021
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We provide new global estimates of changes in surface temperature, surface heat flux, and continental heat storage since preindustrial times from geothermal data. Our analysis includes new measurements and a more comprehensive description of uncertainties than previous studies. Results show higher continental heat storage than previously reported, with global land mean temperature changes of 1 K and subsurface heat gains of 12 ZJ during the last half of the 20th century.
Richard Essery, Hyungjun Kim, Libo Wang, Paul Bartlett, Aaron Boone, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Eleanor Burke, Matthias Cuntz, Bertrand Decharme, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Yeugeniy Gusev, Stefan Hagemann, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Gerhard Krinner, Matthieu Lafaysse, Yves Lejeune, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Christoph Marty, Cecile B. Menard, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, John Pomeroy, Gerd Schädler, Vladimir Semenov, Tatiana Smirnova, Sean Swenson, Dmitry Turkov, Nander Wever, and Hua Yuan
The Cryosphere, 14, 4687–4698, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-4687-2020, 2020
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Climate models are uncertain in predicting how warming changes snow cover. This paper compares 22 snow models with the same meteorological inputs. Predicted trends agree with observations at four snow research sites: winter snow cover does not start later, but snow now melts earlier in spring than in the 1980s at two of the sites. Cold regions where snow can last until late summer are predicted to be particularly sensitive to warming because the snow then melts faster at warmer times of year.
Marvin Heidkamp, Felix Ament, Philipp de Vrese, and Andreas Chlond
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-75, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-75, 2020
Publication in ESD not foreseen
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This study deals with leaf thermoregulation, a process that describes the ability of leaves to buffer against ambient temperatures. In the past, this effect has been investigated at the leaf scale, but not on the canopy or global scale. Here we try to close this scientific gap by studying the large-scale effect of leaf thermoregulation using the Max Planck Institute's Earth system model. We believe that our study provides valuable insights for modelers and observers.
George C. Hurtt, Louise Chini, Ritvik Sahajpal, Steve Frolking, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Katherine Calvin, Jonathan C. Doelman, Justin Fisk, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Tomoko Hasegawa, Peter Havlik, Andreas Heinimann, Florian Humpenöder, Johan Jungclaus, Jed O. Kaplan, Jennifer Kennedy, Tamás Krisztin, David Lawrence, Peter Lawrence, Lei Ma, Ole Mertz, Julia Pongratz, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Keywan Riahi, Elena Shevliakova, Elke Stehfest, Peter Thornton, Francesco N. Tubiello, Detlef P. van Vuuren, and Xin Zhang
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5425–5464, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5425-2020, 2020
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To estimate the effects of human land use activities on the carbon–climate system, a new set of global gridded land use forcing datasets was developed to link historical land use data to eight future scenarios in a standard format required by climate models. This new generation of land use harmonization (LUH2) includes updated inputs, higher spatial resolution, more detailed land use transitions, and the addition of important agricultural management layers; it will be used for CMIP6 simulations.
Almudena García-García, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Fidel González-Rouco, Elena García-Bustamante, and Joel Finnis
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5345–5366, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5345-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5345-2020, 2020
Andrea N. Hahmann, Tija Sīle, Björn Witha, Neil N. Davis, Martin Dörenkämper, Yasemin Ezber, Elena García-Bustamante, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Jorge Navarro, Bjarke T. Olsen, and Stefan Söderberg
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5053–5078, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5053-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5053-2020, 2020
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Wind energy resource assessment routinely uses numerical weather prediction model output. We describe the evaluation procedures used for picking the suitable blend of model setup and parameterizations for simulating European wind climatology with the WRF model. We assess the simulated winds against tall mast measurements using a suite of metrics, including the Earth Mover's Distance, which diagnoses the performance of each ensemble member using the full wind speed and direction distribution.
Martin Dörenkämper, Bjarke T. Olsen, Björn Witha, Andrea N. Hahmann, Neil N. Davis, Jordi Barcons, Yasemin Ezber, Elena García-Bustamante, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Jorge Navarro, Mariano Sastre-Marugán, Tija Sīle, Wilke Trei, Mark Žagar, Jake Badger, Julia Gottschall, Javier Sanz Rodrigo, and Jakob Mann
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5079–5102, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5079-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5079-2020, 2020
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This is the second of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). The paper includes a detailed description of the technical and practical aspects that went into running the mesoscale simulations and the microscale downscaling for generating the climatology. A comprehensive evaluation of each component of the NEWA model chain is presented using observations from a large set of tall masts located all over Europe.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lijing Cheng, Matthew D. Palmer, James Hansen, Caterina Tassone, Valentin Aich, Susheel Adusumilli, Hugo Beltrami, Tim Boyer, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Damien Desbruyères, Catia Domingues, Almudena García-García, Pierre Gentine, John Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Masayoshi Ishii, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian A. King, Gottfried Kirchengast, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, John Lyman, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Maeva Monier, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Axel Schweiger, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Andrew Shepherd, Donald A. Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Fiammetta Straneo, Mary-Louise Timmermans, and Susan E. Wijffels
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2013–2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, 2020
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Understanding how much and where the heat is distributed in the Earth system is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming oceans, atmosphere and land, rising temperatures and sea level, and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to obtain the Earth heat inventory over the period 1960–2018.
Veronika Eyring, Lisa Bock, Axel Lauer, Mattia Righi, Manuel Schlund, Bouwe Andela, Enrico Arnone, Omar Bellprat, Björn Brötz, Louis-Philippe Caron, Nuno Carvalhais, Irene Cionni, Nicola Cortesi, Bas Crezee, Edouard L. Davin, Paolo Davini, Kevin Debeire, Lee de Mora, Clara Deser, David Docquier, Paul Earnshaw, Carsten Ehbrecht, Bettina K. Gier, Nube Gonzalez-Reviriego, Paul Goodman, Stefan Hagemann, Steven Hardiman, Birgit Hassler, Alasdair Hunter, Christopher Kadow, Stephan Kindermann, Sujan Koirala, Nikolay Koldunov, Quentin Lejeune, Valerio Lembo, Tomas Lovato, Valerio Lucarini, François Massonnet, Benjamin Müller, Amarjiit Pandde, Núria Pérez-Zanón, Adam Phillips, Valeriu Predoi, Joellen Russell, Alistair Sellar, Federico Serva, Tobias Stacke, Ranjini Swaminathan, Verónica Torralba, Javier Vegas-Regidor, Jost von Hardenberg, Katja Weigel, and Klaus Zimmermann
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 3383–3438, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-3383-2020, 2020
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The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool designed to improve comprehensive and routine evaluation of earth system models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). It has undergone rapid development since the first release in 2016 and is now a well-tested tool that provides end-to-end provenance tracking to ensure reproducibility.
Pedro José Roldán-Gómez, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Camilo Melo-Aguilar, and Jason E. Smerdon
Clim. Past, 16, 1285–1307, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1285-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-1285-2020, 2020
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This work analyses the behavior of atmospheric dynamics and hydroclimate in climate simulations of the last millennium. In particular, how external forcing factors, like solar and volcanic activity and greenhouse gas emissions, impact variables like temperature, pressure, wind, precipitation, and soil moisture is assessed. The results of these analyses show that changes in the forcing could alter the zonal circulation and the intensity and distribution of monsoons and convergence zones.
Ignacio Hermoso de Mendoza, Hugo Beltrami, Andrew H. MacDougall, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 1663–1683, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1663-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-1663-2020, 2020
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We study the impact that the thickness of the subsurface and the geothermal gradient have in land models for climate simulations. To do this, we modify the Community Land Model version 4.5. In a scenario of rising atmospheric temperatures, the temperature of an insufficiently deep subsurface rises faster than it would in the real land. For the model, this produces faster permafrost thawing and increased emissions of land carbon to the atmosphere.
Camilo Melo-Aguilar, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Elena García-Bustamante, Norman Steinert, Johann H. Jungclaus, Jorge Navarro, and Pedro J. Roldán-Gómez
Clim. Past, 16, 453–474, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-453-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-453-2020, 2020
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This study explores potential sources of bias on borehole-based temperature reconstruction from both methodological and physical factors using pseudo-proxy experiments that consider ensembles of simulations from the Community Earth System Model. The results indicate that both methodological and physical factors may have an impact on the estimation of the recent temperature trends at different spatial scales. Internal variability arises also as an important issue influencing pseudo-proxy results.
Anne Dallmeyer, Martin Claussen, Stephan J. Lorenz, and Timothy Shanahan
Clim. Past, 16, 117–140, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-117-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-16-117-2020, 2020
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We analyse the end of the African humid period (AHP) in a transient Holocene simulation performed with the comprehensive Earth system model MPI-ESM1.2. The model reproduces the time-transgressive end of the AHP evident in proxy data and indicates that changes in moisture can be attributed to the retreat of the summer monsoon and to changes in the extratropical troughs. The spatially varying impact of these systems imposes regionally different responses to the Holocene insolation change.
Tine Nilsen, Dmitry V. Divine, Annika Hofgaard, Andreas Born, Johann Jungclaus, and Igor Drobyshev
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-123, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2019-123, 2019
Revised manuscript not accepted
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Using a set of three climate model simulations we cannot find a consistent relationship between atmospheric conditions favorable for forest fire activity in northern Scandinavia and weaker ocean circulation in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre on seasonal timescales. In the literature there is support of such a relationship for longer timescales. With the motivation to improve seasonal prediction systems, we conclude that the gyre circulation alone does not indicate forthcoming model drought.
Oliver Gutjahr, Dian Putrasahan, Katja Lohmann, Johann H. Jungclaus, Jin-Song von Storch, Nils Brüggemann, Helmuth Haak, and Achim Stössel
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 3241–3281, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3241-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-3241-2019, 2019
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We analyse how climatic mean states of the atmosphere and ocean change with increasing the horizontal model resolution of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM1.2) and how they are affected by the representation of vertical mixing in the ocean. It is in particular a high-resolution ocean that reduces biases not only in the ocean but also in the atmosphere. The vertical mixing scheme affects the strength and stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC).
Victor Brovkin, Stephan Lorenz, Thomas Raddatz, Tatiana Ilyina, Irene Stemmler, Matthew Toohey, and Martin Claussen
Biogeosciences, 16, 2543–2555, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-2543-2019, 2019
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Mechanisms of atmospheric CO2 growth by 20 ppm from 6000 BCE to the pre-industrial period are still uncertain. We apply the Earth system model MPI-ESM-LR for two transient simulations of the climate–carbon cycle. An additional process, e.g. carbonate accumulation on shelves, is required for consistency with ice-core CO2 data. Our simulations support the hypothesis that the ocean was a source of CO2 until the late Holocene when anthropogenic CO2 sources started to affect atmospheric CO2.
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Almudena García-García, Hugo Beltrami, Eduardo Zorita, and Fernando Jaume-Santero
Clim. Past, 15, 1099–1111, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1099-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-15-1099-2019, 2019
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A database of North American long-term ground surface temperatures, from approximately 1300 CE to 1700 CE, was assembled from geothermal data. These temperatures are useful for studying the future stability of permafrost, as well as for evaluating simulations of preindustrial climate that may help to improve estimates of climate models’ equilibrium climate sensitivity. The database will be made available to the climate science community.
Gerhard Krinner, Chris Derksen, Richard Essery, Mark Flanner, Stefan Hagemann, Martyn Clark, Alex Hall, Helmut Rott, Claire Brutel-Vuilmet, Hyungjun Kim, Cécile B. Ménard, Lawrence Mudryk, Chad Thackeray, Libo Wang, Gabriele Arduini, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Paul Bartlett, Julia Boike, Aaron Boone, Frédérique Chéruy, Jeanne Colin, Matthias Cuntz, Yongjiu Dai, Bertrand Decharme, Jeff Derry, Agnès Ducharne, Emanuel Dutra, Xing Fang, Charles Fierz, Josephine Ghattas, Yeugeniy Gusev, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Kontu, Matthieu Lafaysse, Rachel Law, Dave Lawrence, Weiping Li, Thomas Marke, Danny Marks, Martin Ménégoz, Olga Nasonova, Tomoko Nitta, Masashi Niwano, John Pomeroy, Mark S. Raleigh, Gerd Schaedler, Vladimir Semenov, Tanya G. Smirnova, Tobias Stacke, Ulrich Strasser, Sean Svenson, Dmitry Turkov, Tao Wang, Nander Wever, Hua Yuan, Wenyan Zhou, and Dan Zhu
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 5027–5049, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-5027-2018, 2018
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This paper provides an overview of a coordinated international experiment to determine the strengths and weaknesses in how climate models treat snow. The models will be assessed at point locations using high-quality reference measurements and globally using satellite-derived datasets. How well climate models simulate snow-related processes is important because changing snow cover is an important part of the global climate system and provides an important freshwater resource for human use.
Hanna Paulsen, Tatiana Ilyina, Johann H. Jungclaus, Katharina D. Six, and Irene Stemmler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 1283–1300, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1283-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1283-2018, 2018
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We use an Earth system model to study the effects of light absorption by marine cyanobacteria on climate. We find that cyanobacteria have a considerable cooling effect on tropical SST with implications for ocean and atmosphere circulation patterns as well as for climate variability. The results indicate the importance of considering phytoplankton light absorption in climate models, and specifically highlight the role of cyanobacteria due to their regulative effect on tropical SST and climate.
Camilo Melo-Aguilar, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Elena García-Bustamante, Jorge Navarro-Montesinos, and Norman Steinert
Clim. Past, 14, 1583–1606, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1583-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-1583-2018, 2018
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Air–ground temperature coupling is the central assumption of borehole temperature reconstructions. Here, this premise is assessed from a pseudo-reality perspective by considering last millennium ensembles of simulations from the Community Earth System Model. The results show that long-term variations in the energy fluxes at the surface during industrial times, due to the influence of external forcings, impact the long-term air–ground temperature coupling.
Thomas Riddick, Victor Brovkin, Stefan Hagemann, and Uwe Mikolajewicz
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 4291–4316, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4291-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4291-2018, 2018
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During the Last Glacial Maximum, many rivers were blocked by the presence of large ice sheets and thus found new routes to the sea. This resulted in changes in the pattern of freshwater discharge into the oceans and thus would have significantly affected ocean circulation. Also, rivers found routes across the vast exposed continental shelves to the lower coastlines of that time. We propose a model for such changes in river routing suitable for use in wider models of the last glacial cycle.
Carolyne Pickler, Edmundo Gurza Fausto, Hugo Beltrami, Jean-Claude Mareschal, Francisco Suárez, Arlette Chacon-Oecklers, Nicole Blin, Maria Teresa Cortés Calderón, Alvaro Montenegro, Rob Harris, and Andres Tassara
Clim. Past, 14, 559–575, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-559-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-14-559-2018, 2018
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We compiled 31 temperature–depth profiles to reconstruct the ground surface temperature of the last 500 years in northern Chile. They suggest that the region experienced a cooling from 1850 to 1980 followed by a warming of 1.9 K. The cooling could coincide with a cooling interval in 1960. The warming is greater than that of proxy reconstructions for nearby regions and model simulations. These differences could be due to differences in spatial and temporal resolution between data and models.
Philipp de Vrese, Tobias Stacke, and Stefan Hagemann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 393–412, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-393-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-393-2018, 2018
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The potential food supply depends strongly on climatic conditions, while agricultural activity has substantial impacts on climate. Using an Earth system model, we investigate the climate–agriculture interactions resulting from a maximization of the global cropland area during the 21st century. We find that the potential food supply can be increased substantially, but guaranteeing food security in dry areas in Northern Africa, the Middle East and South Asia will become increasingly difficult.
Masa Kageyama, Pascale Braconnot, Sandy P. Harrison, Alan M. Haywood, Johann H. Jungclaus, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Samuel Albani, Patrick J. Bartlein, Chris Brierley, Michel Crucifix, Aisling Dolan, Laura Fernandez-Donado, Hubertus Fischer, Peter O. Hopcroft, Ruza F. Ivanovic, Fabrice Lambert, Daniel J. Lunt, Natalie M. Mahowald, W. Richard Peltier, Steven J. Phipps, Didier M. Roche, Gavin A. Schmidt, Lev Tarasov, Paul J. Valdes, Qiong Zhang, and Tianjun Zhou
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1033–1057, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1033-2018, 2018
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The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) takes advantage of the existence of past climate states radically different from the recent past to test climate models used for climate projections and to better understand these climates. This paper describes the PMIP contribution to CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, 6th phase) and possible analyses based on PMIP results, as well as on other CMIP6 projects.
Axel Lauer, Colin Jones, Veronika Eyring, Martin Evaldsson, Stefan Hagemann, Jarmo Mäkelä, Gill Martin, Romain Roehrig, and Shiyu Wang
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 33–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-33-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-33-2018, 2018
PAGES Hydro2k Consortium
Clim. Past, 13, 1851–1900, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-13-1851-2017, 2017
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Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations in hydroclimate (including extreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited due to a paucity of modern instrumental observations. We review how proxy records of past climate and climate model simulations can be used in tandem to understand hydroclimate variability over the last 2000 years and how these tools can also inform risk assessments of future hydroclimatic extremes.
Johann H. Jungclaus, Edouard Bard, Mélanie Baroni, Pascale Braconnot, Jian Cao, Louise P. Chini, Tania Egorova, Michael Evans, J. Fidel González-Rouco, Hugues Goosse, George C. Hurtt, Fortunat Joos, Jed O. Kaplan, Myriam Khodri, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Natalie Krivova, Allegra N. LeGrande, Stephan J. Lorenz, Jürg Luterbacher, Wenmin Man, Amanda C. Maycock, Malte Meinshausen, Anders Moberg, Raimund Muscheler, Christoph Nehrbass-Ahles, Bette I. Otto-Bliesner, Steven J. Phipps, Julia Pongratz, Eugene Rozanov, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hauke Schmidt, Werner Schmutz, Andrew Schurer, Alexander I. Shapiro, Michael Sigl, Jason E. Smerdon, Sami K. Solanki, Claudia Timmreck, Matthew Toohey, Ilya G. Usoskin, Sebastian Wagner, Chi-Ju Wu, Kok Leng Yeo, Davide Zanchettin, Qiong Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 4005–4033, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4005-2017, 2017
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Climate model simulations covering the last millennium provide context for the evolution of the modern climate and for the expected changes during the coming centuries. They can help identify plausible mechanisms underlying palaeoclimatic reconstructions. Here, we describe the forcing boundary conditions and the experimental protocol for simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium. We describe the PMIP4 past1000 simulations as contributions to CMIP6 and additional sensitivity experiments.
Carolyne Pickler, Hugo Beltrami, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 2215–2227, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2215-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2215-2016, 2016
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The ground surface temperature histories of the past 500 years were reconstructed at 10 sites in northern Ontario and Quebec. The regions experienced a warming of ~1–2 K for the past 150 years, agreeing with borehole reconstructions for southern Ontario and Quebec and proxy data. Permafrost maps locate the sites in a region of discontinuous permafrost but our reconstructions suggest that the potential for permafrost was minimal to absent over the past 500 years.
Fernando Jaume-Santero, Carolyne Pickler, Hugo Beltrami, and Jean-Claude Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 2181–2194, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2181-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-2181-2016, 2016
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Within the framework of the PAGES NAm2k project, we estimated regional trends in the ground surface temperature change for the past 500 years in North America. The mean North American ground surface temperature history suggests a warming of 1.8 °C between preindustrial times and 2000. A regional analysis of mean temperature changes over the last 5 centuries shows that all regions experienced warming, but this warming displays large spatial variability and is more marked in high-latitude regions.
Jarmo Mäkelä, Jouni Susiluoto, Tiina Markkanen, Mika Aurela, Heikki Järvinen, Ivan Mammarella, Stefan Hagemann, and Tuula Aalto
Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 23, 447–465, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-447-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-23-447-2016, 2016
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The land-based hydrological cycle is one of the key processes controlling the growth and wilting of plants and the amount of carbon vegetation can assimilate. Recent studies have shown that many land surface models have biases in this area. We optimized parameters in one such model (JSBACH) and were able to enhance the model performance in many respects, but the response to drought remained unaffected. Further studies into this aspect should include alternative stomatal conductance formulations.
Ignacio Hermoso de Mendoza, Jean-Claude Mareschal, and Hugo Beltrami
Clim. Past Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-116, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-2016-116, 2016
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We simulated ice flow and heat conduction at the Dome C site in Antarctica with a 1D numerical model, using as inputs past conditions at the site over the past 800Ky. Several model parameters (basal heat flux, flux function parameter, ice surface velocity and air-ice temperature offset) are set as free parameters whose values yield different temperature profiles that we can compare to that at Dome C. Using this criteria, we estimate these free parameters through Montecarlo methods.
Jonathan M. Gregory, Nathaelle Bouttes, Stephen M. Griffies, Helmuth Haak, William J. Hurlin, Johann Jungclaus, Maxwell Kelley, Warren G. Lee, John Marshall, Anastasia Romanou, Oleg A. Saenko, Detlef Stammer, and Michael Winton
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3993–4017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3993-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3993-2016, 2016
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As a consequence of greenhouse gas emissions, changes in ocean temperature, salinity, circulation and sea level are expected in coming decades. Among the models used for climate projections for the 21st century, there is a large spread in projections of these effects. The Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP) aims to investigate and explain this spread by prescribing a common set of changes in the input of heat, water and wind stress to the ocean in the participating models.
Stephen M. Griffies, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Paul J. Durack, Alistair J. Adcroft, V. Balaji, Claus W. Böning, Eric P. Chassignet, Enrique Curchitser, Julie Deshayes, Helge Drange, Baylor Fox-Kemper, Peter J. Gleckler, Jonathan M. Gregory, Helmuth Haak, Robert W. Hallberg, Patrick Heimbach, Helene T. Hewitt, David M. Holland, Tatiana Ilyina, Johann H. Jungclaus, Yoshiki Komuro, John P. Krasting, William G. Large, Simon J. Marsland, Simona Masina, Trevor J. McDougall, A. J. George Nurser, James C. Orr, Anna Pirani, Fangli Qiao, Ronald J. Stouffer, Karl E. Taylor, Anne Marie Treguier, Hiroyuki Tsujino, Petteri Uotila, Maria Valdivieso, Qiang Wang, Michael Winton, and Stephen G. Yeager
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3231–3296, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3231-2016, 2016
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The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) aims to provide a framework for evaluating, understanding, and improving the ocean and sea-ice components of global climate and earth system models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This document defines OMIP and details a protocol both for simulating global ocean/sea-ice models and for analysing their output.
Bart van den Hurk, Hyungjun Kim, Gerhard Krinner, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Chris Derksen, Taikan Oki, Hervé Douville, Jeanne Colin, Agnès Ducharne, Frederique Cheruy, Nicholas Viovy, Michael J. Puma, Yoshihide Wada, Weiping Li, Binghao Jia, Andrea Alessandri, Dave M. Lawrence, Graham P. Weedon, Richard Ellis, Stefan Hagemann, Jiafu Mao, Mark G. Flanner, Matteo Zampieri, Stefano Materia, Rachel M. Law, and Justin Sheffield
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 2809–2832, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2809-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-2809-2016, 2016
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This manuscript describes the setup of the CMIP6 project Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison Project (LS3MIP).
Stefan Hagemann, Tanja Blome, Altug Ekici, and Christian Beer
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 611–625, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-611-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-611-2016, 2016
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The present study analyses how cold-region physical soil processes, especially freezing of soil water, impact large-scale hydrology and climate over Northern Hemisphere high-latitude land areas. For this analysis, an atmosphere–land global climate model was used. It is shown that including these processes in the model leads to improved discharge in spring and a positive land–atmosphere feedback to precipitation over the high latitudes that has previously not been noted for the high latitudes.
Anastasios Matsikaris, Martin Widmann, and Johann Jungclaus
Clim. Past, 12, 1555–1563, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1555-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-1555-2016, 2016
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We have assimilated proxy-based (PAGES 2K) and instrumental (HadCRUT3v) observations into a General Circulation Model (MPI-ESM-CR). Assimilating instrumental data improves the performance of Data Assimilation. No skill on small spatial scales is however found for either of the two schemes. Errors in the assimilated data are therefore not the main reason for this lack of skill; continental mean temperatures cannot provide skill on small spatial scales in palaeoclimate reconstructions.
Veronika Eyring, Mattia Righi, Axel Lauer, Martin Evaldsson, Sabrina Wenzel, Colin Jones, Alessandro Anav, Oliver Andrews, Irene Cionni, Edouard L. Davin, Clara Deser, Carsten Ehbrecht, Pierre Friedlingstein, Peter Gleckler, Klaus-Dirk Gottschaldt, Stefan Hagemann, Martin Juckes, Stephan Kindermann, John Krasting, Dominik Kunert, Richard Levine, Alexander Loew, Jarmo Mäkelä, Gill Martin, Erik Mason, Adam S. Phillips, Simon Read, Catherine Rio, Romain Roehrig, Daniel Senftleben, Andreas Sterl, Lambertus H. van Ulft, Jeremy Walton, Shiyu Wang, and Keith D. Williams
Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1747–1802, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, 2016
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A community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for the evaluation of Earth system models (ESMs) in CMIP has been developed that allows for routine comparison of single or multiple models, either against predecessor versions or against observations.
C. Pickler, H. Beltrami, and J.-C. Mareschal
Clim. Past, 12, 115–127, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-115-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-12-115-2016, 2016
Y. Gao, T. Markkanen, T. Thum, M. Aurela, A. Lohila, I. Mammarella, M. Kämäräinen, S. Hagemann, and T. Aalto
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 175–191, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-175-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-175-2016, 2016
T. Stacke and S. Hagemann
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 1–19, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-1-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-1-2016, 2016
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This study evaluates the lifetime of soil moisture perturbations using an atmosphere-land GCM. We find memory of up to 9 months for root zone soil moisture. Interactions with other surface states result in significant but short-lived anomalies in surface temperature and more stable anomalies in leaf carbon content. As these anomalies can recur repeatedly, e.g. due to interactions with a deep-soil moisture reservoir, we conclude that soil moisture initialization may impact climate predictions.
B. Poulter, N. MacBean, A. Hartley, I. Khlystova, O. Arino, R. Betts, S. Bontemps, M. Boettcher, C. Brockmann, P. Defourny, S. Hagemann, M. Herold, G. Kirches, C. Lamarche, D. Lederer, C. Ottlé, M. Peters, and P. Peylin
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2315–2328, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2315-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2315-2015, 2015
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Land cover is an essential variable in earth system models and determines conditions driving biogeochemical, energy and water exchange between ecosystems and the atmosphere. A methodology is presented for mapping plant functional types used in global vegetation models from a updated land cover classification system and open-source conversion tool, resulting from a consultative process among map producers and modelers engaged in the European Space Agency’s Land Cover Climate Change Initiative.
K. Lohmann, J. Mignot, H. R. Langehaug, J. H. Jungclaus, D. Matei, O. H. Otterå, Y. Q. Gao, T. L. Mjell, U. S. Ninnemann, and H. F. Kleiven
Clim. Past, 11, 203–216, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-203-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-203-2015, 2015
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We use model simulations to investigate mechanisms of similar Iceland--Scotland overflow (outflow from the Nordic seas) and North Atlantic sea surface temperature variability, suggested from palaeo-reconstructions (Mjell et al., 2015). Our results indicate the influence of Nordic Seas surface temperature on the pressure gradient across the Iceland--Scotland ridge, not a large-scale link through the meridional overturning circulation, is responsible for the (simulated) co-variability.
A. Matsikaris, M. Widmann, and J. Jungclaus
Clim. Past, 11, 81–93, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-81-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-11-81-2015, 2015
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We compare an off-line and an on-line ensemble-based data assimilation method, for the climate of the 17th century. Both schemes perform better than the simulations without DA, and similar skill on the continental and hemispheric scales is found. This indicates either a lack of control of the slow components in our setup or a lack of skill in the information propagation on decadal timescales. The temporal consistency of the analysis in the on-line method makes it generally more preferable.
H. Beltrami, G. S. Matharoo, L. Tarasov, V. Rath, and J. E. Smerdon
Clim. Past, 10, 1693–1706, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1693-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-10-1693-2014, 2014
A. Ekici, C. Beer, S. Hagemann, J. Boike, M. Langer, and C. Hauck
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 631–647, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-631-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-631-2014, 2014
K. Lohmann, J. H. Jungclaus, D. Matei, J. Mignot, M. Menary, H. R. Langehaug, J. Ba, Y. Gao, O. H. Otterå, W. Park, and S. Lorenz
Ocean Sci., 10, 227–241, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-227-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-227-2014, 2014
O. Bothe, J. H. Jungclaus, and D. Zanchettin
Clim. Past, 9, 2471–2487, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-2471-2013, 2013
J. C. S. Davie, P. D. Falloon, R. Kahana, R. Dankers, R. Betts, F. T. Portmann, D. Wisser, D. B. Clark, A. Ito, Y. Masaki, K. Nishina, B. Fekete, Z. Tessler, Y. Wada, X. Liu, Q. Tang, S. Hagemann, T. Stacke, R. Pavlick, S. Schaphoff, S. N. Gosling, W. Franssen, and N. Arnell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 359–374, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-359-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-359-2013, 2013
A. Loew, T. Stacke, W. Dorigo, R. de Jeu, and S. Hagemann
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3523–3542, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3523-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-3523-2013, 2013
O. Bothe, J. H. Jungclaus, D. Zanchettin, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 1089–1110, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1089-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-1089-2013, 2013
S. Hagemann, C. Chen, D. B. Clark, S. Folwell, S. N. Gosling, I. Haddeland, N. Hanasaki, J. Heinke, F. Ludwig, F. Voss, and A. J. Wiltshire
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 129–144, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-129-2013, 2013
P. Ortega, M. Montoya, F. González-Rouco, H. Beltrami, and D. Swingedouw
Clim. Past, 9, 547–565, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-547-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-547-2013, 2013
L. Fernández-Donado, J. F. González-Rouco, C. C. Raible, C. M. Ammann, D. Barriopedro, E. García-Bustamante, J. H. Jungclaus, S. J. Lorenz, J. Luterbacher, S. J. Phipps, J. Servonnat, D. Swingedouw, S. F. B. Tett, S. Wagner, P. Yiou, and E. Zorita
Clim. Past, 9, 393–421, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-393-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-9-393-2013, 2013
J. Segschneider, A. Beitsch, C. Timmreck, V. Brovkin, T. Ilyina, J. Jungclaus, S. J. Lorenz, K. D. Six, and D. Zanchettin
Biogeosciences, 10, 669–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-669-2013, 2013
S. Tietsche, D. Notz, J. H. Jungclaus, and J. Marotzke
Ocean Sci., 9, 19–36, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-19-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-19-2013, 2013
Related subject area
Topics: Climate change | Interactions: Land/atmosphere interactions | Methods: Earth system and climate modeling
Intensified future heat extremes linked with increasing ecosystem water limitation
Detecting the human fingerprint in the summer 2022 western–central European soil drought
Jasper M. C. Denissen, Adriaan J. Teuling, Sujan Koirala, Markus Reichstein, Gianpaolo Balsamo, Martha M. Vogel, Xin Yu, and René Orth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 717–734, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-717-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-717-2024, 2024
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Heat extremes have severe implications for human health and ecosystems. Heat extremes are mostly introduced by large-scale atmospheric circulation but can be modulated by vegetation. Vegetation with access to water uses solar energy to evaporate water into the atmosphere. Under dry conditions, water may not be available, suppressing evaporation and heating the atmosphere. Using climate projections, we show that regionally less water is available for vegetation, intensifying future heat extremes.
Dominik L. Schumacher, Mariam Zachariah, Friederike Otto, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Maja Vahlberg, Roop Singh, Dorothy Heinrich, Julie Arrighi, Maarten van Aalst, Mathias Hauser, Martin Hirschi, Verena Bessenbacher, Lukas Gudmundsson, Hiroko K. Beaudoing, Matthew Rodell, Sihan Li, Wenchang Yang, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Luke J. Harrington, Flavio Lehner, Gianpaolo Balsamo, and Sonia I. Seneviratne
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 131–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-131-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-131-2024, 2024
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The 2022 summer was accompanied by widespread soil moisture deficits, including an unprecedented drought in Europe. Combining several observation-based estimates and models, we find that such an event has become at least 5 and 20 times more likely due to human-induced climate change in western Europe and the northern extratropics, respectively. Strong regional warming fuels soil desiccation; hence, projections indicate even more potent future droughts as we progress towards a 2 °C warmer world.
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Short summary
According to climate model estimates, the land stored 2 % of the system's heat excess in the last decades, while observational studies show it was around 6 %. This difference stems from these models using land components that are too shallow to constrain land heat uptake. Deepening the land component does not affect the surface temperature. This result can be used to derive land heat uptake estimates from different sources, which are much closer to previous observational reports.
According to climate model estimates, the land stored 2 % of the system's heat excess in the...
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