The aerosol pathway is crucial for observationally constraining climate sensitivity and anthropogenic forcing

Skeie, Ragnhild Bieltvedt; Aldrin, Magne; Berntsen, Terje K.; Holden, Marit; Huseby, Ragnar Bang; Myhre, Gunnar; Storelvmo, Trude

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1435-2024

Articles | Volume 15, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1435-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1435-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 15, issue 6

Research article

|

13 Nov 2024

Research article |

| 13 Nov 2024

The aerosol pathway is crucial for observationally constraining climate sensitivity and anthropogenic forcing

Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Magne Aldrin, Terje K. Berntsen, Marit Holden, Ragnar Bang Huseby, Gunnar Myhre, and Trude Storelvmo

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1435-2024-supplement

Data sets

ragnhibs/climsens_24 Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13837268

Figure and data generation for Chapter 7 of the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report, Working Group 1 (plus assorted other contributions) Chris Smith et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5211357

Model code and software

ragnhibs/climsens_24 Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13837268

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Short summary

Climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing are central quantities in climate science that are uncertain and contribute to the spread in climate projections. To constrain them, we use observations of temperature and ocean heat content as well as prior knowledge of radiative forcings over the industrialized period. The estimates are sensitive to how aerosol cooling evolved over the latter part of the 20th century, and a strong aerosol forcing trend in the 1960s–1970s is not supported by our analysis.