Articles | Volume 15, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1401-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1401-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
08 Nov 2024
Research article |
| 08 Nov 2024
| 08 Nov 2024
Dakar Niño under global warming investigated by a high-resolution regionally coupled model
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, 5007 Bergen, Norway
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, 5007 Bergen, Norway
Rubén Vázquez
Departamento de Física y Matemáticas, Universidad de Alcalá, 28801 Alcalá de Henares, Spain
Instituto Universitario de Investigación Marina (INMAR), Universidad de Cádiz, 11510 Cádiz, Spain
William Cabos
Departamento de Física y Matemáticas, Universidad de Alcalá, 28801 Alcalá de Henares, Spain
Claudia Gutiérrez
Departamento de Física y Matemáticas, Universidad de Alcalá, 28801 Alcalá de Henares, Spain
Dmitry V. Sein
Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, 27570 Bremerhaven, Germany
Shirshov Institute of Oceanography, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, 117218, Russia
Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Moscow, 141701, Russia
Marie-Lou Bachèlery
Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, 5007 Bergen, Norway
CMCC Foundation – Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, 40127 Bologna, Italy
Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, 5007 Bergen, Norway
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Anton Y. Dvornikov, Stanislav D. Martyanov, Vladimir A. Ryabchenko, Tatjana R. Eremina, Alexey V. Isaev, and Dmitry V. Sein
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N. Sudarchikova, U. Mikolajewicz, C. Timmreck, D. O'Donnell, G. Schurgers, D. Sein, and K. Zhang
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Related subject area
Topics: Oceans | Interactions: Ocean/atmosphere interactions | Methods: Earth system and climate modeling
Generalized stability landscape of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
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Matteo Willeit and Andrey Ganopolski
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Using a fast Earth system model we trace the stability landscape of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the combined freshwater forcing – atmospheric CO2 space. We find four different AMOC states that are stable under different conditions and a generally increasing equilibrium AMOC strength with increasing CO2 concentrations.
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Even after the concentration of greenhouse gases is stabilized, the climate will continue to adapt, seeking a new equilibrium. We study this long-term stabilization through a set of 1000-year simulations, obtained by suddenly "freezing" the atmospheric composition at different levels. If frozen at the current state, global warming surpasses 3° in the long term with our model. We then study how climate impacts will change after various centuries and how the deep ocean will warm.
Justin Gérard and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 293–306, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-293-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-293-2024, 2024
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We used cGENIE, a climate model, to investigate the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) slowdown under a warming scenario. We apply a diagnostic that was used in a previous study (Levang and Schmitt, 2020) to separate the temperature from salinity contribution to this slowdown. We find that, in our model, the initial slowdown of the AMOC was driven by temperature and that salinity takes the lead for the termination of the circulation.
Lara Wallberg, Laura Suarez-Gutierrez, Daniela Matei, and Wolfgang A. Müller
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1–14, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1-2024, 2024
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European summer temperatures are influenced by mechanisms on different timescales. We find that timescales of 5 to 10 years dominate the changes in summer temperature over large parts of the continent. Further, we find that specific processes within the North Atlantic, affecting the storage and transport of heat, cause changes in the atmosphere and extremely warm European summers. Our findings could be used for better forecasts of extremely warm European summers several years ahead.
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Short summary
Using a high-resolution regionally coupled model, we suggest that Dakar Niño variability will be reinforced under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. This may be induced by intensified surface heat flux anomalies and, secondarily, by anomalies in horizontal and vertical advection. Increased sea surface temperature (SST) variability can be associated with stronger wind variability, attributed to amplified surface temperature anomalies between ocean and land.
Using a high-resolution regionally coupled model, we suggest that Dakar Niño variability will be...
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