Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways

Jäger, Felix; Schwaab, Jonas; Quilcaille, Yann; Windisch, Michael; Doelman, Jonathan; Frank, Stefan; Gusti, Mykola; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Andrey; Müller, Christoph; Narayan, Kanishka Balu; Padrón, Ryan Sebastian; Popp, Alexander; van Vuuren, Detlef; Wögerer, Michael; Seneviratne, Sonia Isabelle

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024

Articles | Volume 15, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 15, issue 4

Perspective

|

15 Aug 2024

Perspective |

| 15 Aug 2024

Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways

Felix Jäger, Jonas Schwaab, Yann Quilcaille, Michael Windisch, Jonathan Doelman, Stefan Frank, Mykola Gusti, Petr Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik, Christoph Müller, Kanishka Balu Narayan, Ryan Sebastian Padrón, Alexander Popp, Detlef van Vuuren, Michael Wögerer, and Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024-supplement

Data sets

Data used in "Fire Weather Compromises Forestation-reliant Climate Mitigation Pathways" (Jaeger et al. 2024a) Felix Jäger https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.12627389

A 29-year time series of annual 300 m resolution plant-functional-type maps for climate models (http://maps.elie.ucl.ac.be/CCI/viewer/download.php) K. L. Harper et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1465-2023

Copernicus Global Land Service: Land Cover 100m: Version~3 Globe 2015-2019: Product User Manual M. Buchhorn et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3938963

GCAM-Demeter-LU M. Chen and C. R. Vernon https://doi.org/10.25584/data.2020-04.1188/1614678

AIM-SSP/RCP Gridded Emissions and Land-use data National Institute for Environmental Studies https://doi.org/10.18959/20180403.001

Harmonization of Global Land Use Change and Management for the Period 2015–2300 G. Hurtt et al. https://doi.org/10.22033/ESGF/input4MIPs.10468

Fire weather index data under historical and SSP projections in CMIP6 from 1850 to 2100 Y. Quilcaille and F. Batibeniz https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000583391

Interactive computing environment

Code for data preprocessing, analysis and plotting in "Fire Weather Compromises Forestation-reliant Climate Mitigation Pathways" (Jaeger et al. 2024a) Felix Jäger https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11068957

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Short summary

Climate change mitigation strategies developed with socioeconomic models rely on the widespread (re)planting of trees to limit global warming below 2°. However, most of these models neglect climate-driven shifts in forest damage like fires. By assessing existing mitigation scenarios, we show the exposure of projected forestation areas to fire-promoting weather conditions. Our study highlights the problem of ignoring climate-driven shifts in forest damage and ways to address it.