Articles | Volume 15, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Perspective
| 
15 Aug 2024
Perspective |
| 15 Aug 2024
| 15 Aug 2024
Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Jonas Schwaab
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Yann Quilcaille
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Michael Windisch
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Jonathan Doelman
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, the Netherlands
Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Stefan Frank
Integrated Biosphere Futures Research Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Mykola Gusti
Integrated Biosphere Futures Research Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Petr Havlik
Integrated Biosphere Futures Research Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Florian Humpenöder
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Andrey Lessa Derci Augustynczik
Integrated Biosphere Futures Research Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Christoph Müller
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Kanishka Balu Narayan
Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, USA
Ryan Sebastian Padrón
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Hydrological Forecasts, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Birmensdorf, Switzerland
Alexander Popp
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
Detlef van Vuuren
PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, the Netherlands
Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Michael Wögerer
Integrated Biosphere Futures Research Group, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Sonia Isabelle Seneviratne
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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Latest update: 01 Dec 2024
Short summary
Climate change mitigation strategies developed with socioeconomic models rely on the widespread (re)planting of trees to limit global warming below 2°. However, most of these models neglect climate-driven shifts in forest damage like fires. By assessing existing mitigation scenarios, we show the exposure of projected forestation areas to fire-promoting weather conditions. Our study highlights the problem of ignoring climate-driven shifts in forest damage and ways to address it.
Climate change mitigation strategies developed with socioeconomic models rely on the widespread...
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