Articles | Volume 14, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-955-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-955-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Review
| 
13 Sep 2023
Review |
| 13 Sep 2023
| 13 Sep 2023
Weather persistence on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales: a methodological review
Alexandre Tuel
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute of Geography and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Olivia Martius
Institute of Geography and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Cited
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Dynamics and model representation of the boreal spring subseasonal variability over North America J. Hwang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07859-6
- Seasonal to decadal variability and persistence properties of the Euro-Atlantic jet streams characterized by complementary approaches H. Banderier et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-715-2025
- Generalized divergences for statistical evaluation of uncertainty in long-memory processes H. Yoshioka & Y. Yoshioka https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2024.114627
- Leveraging external atmospheric conditions to enhance the drought predictability over the Vietnamese Mekong Delta K. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.110035
- Nowcasting convective cores using deep learning J. Ahmad et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70284
- Analyzing the influence of large-scale weather patterns on renewable energy systems: A review K. Layer et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2026.117034
- How rainy weather and social influence shape consumers’ online evaluation behavior: mediating effects of negative mood and conformity tendency Y. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12144-025-08901-w
- Assessing the plausibility of unprecedented events: a process-based approach applied to month-long heatwaves in Western Europe F. Roemer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1919-2026
- June persistence barrier of tropical land precipitation R. An et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07901-7
- Long vs. short: understanding the dynamics of persistent summer hot spells in Europe D. Pappert et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-769-2025
- Enhanced weather persistence due to amplified Arctic warming R. Graversen et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03050-1
- Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes E. Holmberg et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4885
- Linking Meteo-Marine Forcing and Spatial Damage Patterns in Calabria After Cyclone Harry (Southern Italy) C. Vennari et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth7040129
- Stratospheric polar vortex, wave absorption/reflection and effect on surface climate A. Hannachi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07610-1
- Persistent warm and cold spells in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics: regionalisation, synoptic-scale dynamics and temperature budget A. Tuel & O. Martius https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024
- Atmospheric Circulation Evolution and Recurrence During Boreal Summers Revealed by ISOMAP Trajectory Distances J. Tseng https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70616
- A tale of two hot spells: dominant circulation patterns favouring persistent high temperatures in western Europe D. Pappert & O. Martius https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae7f34
17 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Dynamics and model representation of the boreal spring subseasonal variability over North America J. Hwang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07859-6
- Seasonal to decadal variability and persistence properties of the Euro-Atlantic jet streams characterized by complementary approaches H. Banderier et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-715-2025
- Generalized divergences for statistical evaluation of uncertainty in long-memory processes H. Yoshioka & Y. Yoshioka https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2024.114627
- Leveraging external atmospheric conditions to enhance the drought predictability over the Vietnamese Mekong Delta K. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.110035
- Nowcasting convective cores using deep learning J. Ahmad et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.70284
- Analyzing the influence of large-scale weather patterns on renewable energy systems: A review K. Layer et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2026.117034
- How rainy weather and social influence shape consumers’ online evaluation behavior: mediating effects of negative mood and conformity tendency Y. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12144-025-08901-w
- Assessing the plausibility of unprecedented events: a process-based approach applied to month-long heatwaves in Western Europe F. Roemer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-7-1919-2026
- June persistence barrier of tropical land precipitation R. An et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07901-7
- Long vs. short: understanding the dynamics of persistent summer hot spells in Europe D. Pappert et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-769-2025
- Enhanced weather persistence due to amplified Arctic warming R. Graversen et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-03050-1
- Forecasting atmospheric persistence and implications for the predictability of temperature and temperature extremes E. Holmberg et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4885
- Linking Meteo-Marine Forcing and Spatial Damage Patterns in Calabria After Cyclone Harry (Southern Italy) C. Vennari et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/earth7040129
- Stratospheric polar vortex, wave absorption/reflection and effect on surface climate A. Hannachi et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07610-1
- Persistent warm and cold spells in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics: regionalisation, synoptic-scale dynamics and temperature budget A. Tuel & O. Martius https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-263-2024
- Atmospheric Circulation Evolution and Recurrence During Boreal Summers Revealed by ISOMAP Trajectory Distances J. Tseng https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70616
- A tale of two hot spells: dominant circulation patterns favouring persistent high temperatures in western Europe D. Pappert & O. Martius https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae7f34
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 24 Oct 2026
Short summary
Weather persistence on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales has been a topic of research since the early days of meteorology. Stationary or recurrent behavior are common features of weather dynamics and are strongly related to fundamental physical processes, weather predictability and surface weather impacts. In this review, we propose a typology for the broad concepts related to persistence and discuss various methods that have been used to characterize persistence in weather data.
Weather persistence on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales has been a topic of research since...
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