Articles | Volume 14, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-549-2023
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-549-2023
Research article
 | 
05 May 2023
Research article |  | 05 May 2023

Opening Pandora's box: reducing global circulation model uncertainty in Australian simulations of the carbon cycle

Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Gab Abramowitz, Andrew J. Pitman, Anna M. Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Bastien François, and Benjamin Smith

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Cited articles

Abramowitz, G., Herger, N., Gutmann, E., Hammerling, D., Knutti, R., Leduc, M., Lorenz, R., Pincus, R., and Schmidt, G. A.: ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing, Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 91–105, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-91-2019, 2019. a, b
Ahlström, A., Schurgers, G., Arneth, A., and Smith, B.: Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 044008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044008, 2012. a, b, c
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Ahlström, A., Schurgers, G., and Smith, B.: The large influence of climate model bias on terrestrial carbon cycle simulations, Environ. Res. Lett., 12, 014004, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/12/1/014004, 2017. a, b, c
Annan, J. D. and Hargreaves, J. C.: On the meaning of independence in climate science, Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 211–224, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-211-2017, 2017. a, b
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Short summary
Studies analyzing the impact of the future climate on ecosystems employ climate projections simulated by global circulation models. These climate projections display biases that translate into significant uncertainty in projections of the future carbon cycle. Here, we test different methods to constrain the uncertainty in simulations of the carbon cycle over Australia. We find that all methods reduce the bias in the steady-state carbon variables but that temporal properties do not improve.
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