Opening Pandora's box: reducing global  circulation model uncertainty in  Australian simulations of the carbon cycle

Teckentrup, Lina; De Kauwe, Martin G.; Abramowitz, Gab; Pitman, Andrew J.; Ukkola, Anna M.; Hobeichi, Sanaa; François, Bastien; Smith, Benjamin

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-549-2023

Articles | Volume 14, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-549-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-549-2023

© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 14, issue 3

Research article

|

05 May 2023

Research article |

| 05 May 2023

Opening Pandora's box: reducing global circulation model uncertainty in Australian simulations of the carbon cycle

Lina Teckentrup, Martin G. De Kauwe, Gab Abramowitz, Andrew J. Pitman, Anna M. Ukkola, Sanaa Hobeichi, Bastien François, and Benjamin Smith

Data sets

CRU JRA v2.0: A forcings dataset of gridded land surface blend of Climatic Research Unit (CRU) and Japanese reanalysis (JRA) data; Jan.1901–Dec.2018 I. Harris https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/7f785c0e80aa4df2b39d068ce7351bbb

Model code and software

SBCK (Statistical Bias Correction Kit) Y. Robin https://github.com/yrobink/SBCK

lteckentrup/CMIP6_australia: Analysis code submission (v1.0.0) L. Teckentrup https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7882380

Short summary

Studies analyzing the impact of the future climate on ecosystems employ climate projections simulated by global circulation models. These climate projections display biases that translate into significant uncertainty in projections of the future carbon cycle. Here, we test different methods to constrain the uncertainty in simulations of the carbon cycle over Australia. We find that all methods reduce the bias in the steady-state carbon variables but that temporal properties do not improve.