Articles | Volume 14, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1085-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1085-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
25 Oct 2023
Research article |
| 25 Oct 2023
| 25 Oct 2023
A quantitative assessment of air–sea heat flux trends from ERA5 since 1950 in the North Atlantic basin
Johannes Mayer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Leopold Haimberger
Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
Michael Mayer
Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Bonn, Germany
Related authors
Jonathan Andrew Baker, Richard Renshaw, Laura Claire Jackson, Clotilde Dubois, Doroteaciro Iovino, Hao Zuo, Renellys C. Perez, Shenfu Dong, Marion Kersalé, Michael Mayer, Johannes Mayer, Sabrina Speich, and Tarron Lamont
State Planet, 1-osr7, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-4-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-4-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use ocean reanalyses, in which ocean models are combined with observations, to infer past changes in ocean circulation and heat transport in the South Atlantic. Comparing these estimates with other observation-based estimates, we find differences in their trends, variability, and mean heat transport but closer agreement in their mean overturning strength. Ocean reanalyses can help us understand the cause of these differences, which could improve estimates of ocean transports in this region.
Susanna Winkelbauer, Michael Mayer, and Leopold Haimberger
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 4603–4620, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4603-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-4603-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Oceanic transports shape the global climate, but the evaluation and validation of this key quantity based on reanalysis and model data are complicated by the distortion of the used modelling grids and the large number of different grid types. We present two new methods that allow the calculation of oceanic fluxes of volume, heat, salinity, and ice through almost arbitrary sections for various models and reanalyses that are independent of the used modelling grids.
Ulrich Voggenberger, Leopold Haimberger, Federico Ambrogi, and Paul Poli
Geosci. Model Dev., 17, 3783–3799, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3783-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-3783-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents a method for calculating balloon drift from historical radiosonde ascent data. The drift can reach distances of several hundred kilometres and is often neglected. Verification shows the beneficial impact of the more accurate balloon position on model assimilation. The method is not limited to radiosondes but would also work for dropsondes, ozonesondes, or any other in situ sonde carried by the wind in the pre-GNSS era, provided the necessary information is available.
Michael Mayer, Takamasa Tsubouchi, Susanna Winkelbauer, Karin Margretha H. Larsen, Barbara Berx, Andreas Macrander, Doroteaciro Iovino, Steingrímur Jónsson, and Richard Renshaw
State Planet, 1-osr7, 14, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-14-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-14-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper compares oceanic fluxes across the Greenland–Scotland Ridge (GSR) from ocean reanalyses to largely independent observational data. Reanalyses tend to underestimate the inflow of warm waters of subtropical Atlantic origin and hence oceanic heat transport across the GSR. Investigation of a strong negative heat transport anomaly around 2018 highlights the interplay of variability on different timescales and the need for long-term monitoring of the GSR to detect forced climate signals.
Jonathan Andrew Baker, Richard Renshaw, Laura Claire Jackson, Clotilde Dubois, Doroteaciro Iovino, Hao Zuo, Renellys C. Perez, Shenfu Dong, Marion Kersalé, Michael Mayer, Johannes Mayer, Sabrina Speich, and Tarron Lamont
State Planet, 1-osr7, 4, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-4-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-4-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We use ocean reanalyses, in which ocean models are combined with observations, to infer past changes in ocean circulation and heat transport in the South Atlantic. Comparing these estimates with other observation-based estimates, we find differences in their trends, variability, and mean heat transport but closer agreement in their mean overturning strength. Ocean reanalyses can help us understand the cause of these differences, which could improve estimates of ocean transports in this region.
Magdalena Fritz, Michael Mayer, Leopold Haimberger, and Susanna Winkelbauer
Ocean Sci., 19, 1203–1223, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1203-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-19-1203-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
The interaction between the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) and regional climate phenomena indicates the high relevance for monitoring the ITF. Observations remain temporally and spatially limited; hence near-real-time monitoring is only possible with reanalyses. We assess how well ocean reanalyses depict the intensity of the ITF via comparison to observations. The results show that reanalyses agree reasonably well with in situ observations; however, some aspects require higher-resolution products.
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-1675-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Earth's climate is out of energy balance, and this study quantifies how much heat has consequently accumulated over the past decades (ocean: 89 %, land: 6 %, cryosphere: 4 %, atmosphere: 1 %). Since 1971, this accumulated heat reached record values at an increasing pace. The Earth heat inventory provides a comprehensive view on the status and expectation of global warming, and we call for an implementation of this global climate indicator into the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake.
Susanna Winkelbauer, Michael Mayer, Vanessa Seitner, Ervin Zsoter, Hao Zuo, and Leopold Haimberger
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 279–304, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-279-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-279-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We evaluate Arctic river discharge using in situ observations and state-of-the-art reanalyses, inter alia the most recent Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) river discharge reanalysis version 3.1. Furthermore, we combine reanalysis data, in situ observations, ocean reanalyses, and satellite data and use a Lagrangian optimization scheme to close the Arctic's volume budget on annual and seasonal scales, resulting in one reliable and up-to-date estimate of every volume budget term.
Noemi Imfeld, Leopold Haimberger, Alexander Sterin, Yuri Brugnara, and Stefan Brönnimann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 2471–2485, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2471-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-2471-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Upper-air data form the backbone of reanalysis products, particularly in the pre-satellite era. However, historical upper-air data are error-prone because measurements at high altitude were especially challenging. Here, we present a collection of data from historical intercomparisons of radiosondes and error assessments reaching back to the 1930s that may allow us to better characterize such errors. The full database, including digitized data, images, and metadata, is made publicly available.
Beena Balan-Sarojini, Steffen Tietsche, Michael Mayer, Magdalena Balmaseda, Hao Zuo, Patricia de Rosnay, Tim Stockdale, and Frederic Vitart
The Cryosphere, 15, 325–344, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-325-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-15-325-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Our study for the first time shows the impact of measured sea ice thickness (SIT) on seasonal forecasts of all the seasons. We prove that the long-term memory present in the Arctic winter SIT is helpful to improve summer sea ice forecasts. Our findings show that realistic SIT initial conditions to start a forecast are useful in (1) improving seasonal forecasts, (2) understanding errors in the forecast model, and (3) recognizing the need for continuous monitoring of world's ice-covered oceans.
Anne Tipka, Leopold Haimberger, and Petra Seibert
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 5277–5310, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5277-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-5277-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Flex_extract v7.1 is an open-source software to retrieve and prepare meteorological fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) MARS archive to serve as input for the FLEXTRA–FLEXPART atmospheric transport modelling system. It can be used by public as well as member-state users and enables the retrieval of a variety of different data sets, including the new reanalysis ERA5. Instructions are given for installation along with typical usage scenarios.
Karina von Schuckmann, Lijing Cheng, Matthew D. Palmer, James Hansen, Caterina Tassone, Valentin Aich, Susheel Adusumilli, Hugo Beltrami, Tim Boyer, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Damien Desbruyères, Catia Domingues, Almudena García-García, Pierre Gentine, John Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Masayoshi Ishii, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian A. King, Gottfried Kirchengast, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, John Lyman, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Maeva Monier, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Axel Schweiger, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Andrew Shepherd, Donald A. Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Fiammetta Straneo, Mary-Louise Timmermans, and Susan E. Wijffels
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 2013–2041, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-2013-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Understanding how much and where the heat is distributed in the Earth system is fundamental to understanding how this affects warming oceans, atmosphere and land, rising temperatures and sea level, and loss of grounded and floating ice, which are fundamental concerns for society. This study is a Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) concerted international effort to obtain the Earth heat inventory over the period 1960–2018.
Ignacio Pisso, Espen Sollum, Henrik Grythe, Nina I. Kristiansen, Massimo Cassiani, Sabine Eckhardt, Delia Arnold, Don Morton, Rona L. Thompson, Christine D. Groot Zwaaftink, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Harald Sodemann, Leopold Haimberger, Stephan Henne, Dominik Brunner, John F. Burkhart, Anne Fouilloux, Jerome Brioude, Anne Philipp, Petra Seibert, and Andreas Stohl
Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 4955–4997, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4955-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-4955-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We present the latest release of the Lagrangian transport model FLEXPART, which simulates the transport, diffusion, dry and wet deposition, radioactive decay, and 1st-order chemical reactions of atmospheric tracers. The model has been recently updated both technically and in the representation of physicochemical processes. We describe the changes, document the most recent input and output files, provide working examples, and introduce testing capabilities.
Hao Zuo, Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda, Steffen Tietsche, Kristian Mogensen, and Michael Mayer
Ocean Sci., 15, 779–808, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-779-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-15-779-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
OCEAN5 is the fifth generation of the ocean and sea-ice analysis system at ECMWF. It was used for production of historical ocean and sea-ice states from 1979 onwards and is also used for generating real-time ocean and sea-ice states responsible for initializing the operational ECMWF weather forecasting system. This is a valuable data set with broad applications. A description of the OCEAN5 system and an assessment of the historical data set have been documented in this reference paper.
Christopher D. Roberts, Retish Senan, Franco Molteni, Souhail Boussetta, Michael Mayer, and Sarah P. E. Keeley
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 3681–3712, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3681-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-3681-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
This paper presents climate model configurations of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecast System (ECMWF-IFS) for different combinations of ocean and atmosphere resolution. These configurations are used to perform multi-decadal experiments following the protocols of the High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) and phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).
Marianne Pietschnig, Michael Mayer, Takamasa Tsubouchi, Andrea Storto, Sebastian Stichelberger, and Leopold Haimberger
Ocean Sci. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2017-98, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-2017-98, 2017
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
New estimates of volume and temperature transports into the Arctic Ocean through the four major gateways (Davis, Fram and Bering Strait and the Barents Sea Opening) have recently become available. These estimates are derived from moored observations. In this study, the same transports derived from a recent ocean reanalysis are compared to the observation-based estimates in the straits. In addition, cross-section plots of velocity, temperature and temperature flux density are investigated.
L. Ramella Pralungo and L. Haimberger
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 297–316, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-297-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-297-2014, 2014
L. Ramella Pralungo, L. Haimberger, A. Stickler, and S. Brönnimann
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 185–200, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-185-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-6-185-2014, 2014
Related subject area
Topics: Climate dynamics and variability | Interactions: Ocean/atmosphere interactions | Methods: Earth system and climate modeling
Similar North Pacific variability despite suppressed El Niño variability in the warm mid-Pliocene climate
Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions
An overview of the E3SM version 2 large ensemble and comparison to other E3SM and CESM large ensembles
Impact of Atlantic multidecadal variability on rainfall intensity distribution and timing of the West African monsoon
Arthur Merlijn Oldeman, Michiel L. J. Baatsen, Anna S. von der Heydt, Frank M. Selten, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 1037–1054, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1037-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-1037-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We might be able to constrain uncertainty in future climate projections by investigating variations in the climate of the past. In this study, we investigate the interactions of climate variability between the tropical Pacific (El Niño) and the North Pacific in a warm past climate – the mid-Pliocene, a period roughly 3 million years ago. Using model simulations, we find that, although the variability in El Niño was reduced, the variability in the North Pacific atmosphere was not.
Soufiane Karmouche, Evgenia Galytska, Gerald A. Meehl, Jakob Runge, Katja Weigel, and Veronika Eyring
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 689–715, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-689-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-689-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This study explores Atlantic–Pacific interactions and their response to external factors. Causal analysis of 1950–2014 data reveals a shift from a Pacific- to an Atlantic-driven regime. Contrasting impacts between El Niño and tropical Atlantic temperatures are highlighted, along with different pathways connecting the two oceans. The findings also suggest increasing remote contributions of forced Atlantic responses in modulating local Pacific responses during the most recent analyzed decades.
John T. Fasullo, Jean-Christophe Golaz, Julie M. Caron, Nan Rosenbloom, Gerald A. Meehl, Warren Strand, Sasha Glanville, Samantha Stevenson, Maria Molina, Christine A. Shields, Chengzhu Zhang, James Benedict, Hailong Wang, and Tony Bartoletti
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 367–386, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-367-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-367-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Climate model large ensembles provide a unique and invaluable means for estimating the climate response to external forcing agents and quantify contrasts in model structure. Here, an overview of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 2 large ensemble is given along with comparisons to large ensembles from E3SM version 1 and versions 1 and 2 of the Community Earth System Model. The paper provides broad and important context for users of these ensembles.
Elsa Mohino, Paul-Arthur Monerie, Juliette Mignot, Moussa Diakhaté, Markus Donat, Christopher David Roberts, and Francisco Doblas-Reyes
Earth Syst. Dynam., 15, 15–40, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-15-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-15-15-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The impact of the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) on the rainfall distribution and timing of the West African monsoon is not well known. Analysing model output, we find that a positive AMV enhances the number of wet days, daily rainfall intensity, and extremes over the Sahel and tends to prolong the monsoon length through later demise. Heavy rainfall events increase all over the Sahel, while moderate ones only occur in the north. Model biases affect the skill in simulating AMV impact.
Cited articles
Baehr, J., Haak, H., Alderson, S., Cunningham, S. A., Jungclaus, J. H., and Marotzke, J.: Timely Detection of Changes in the Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26∘ N in the Atlantic, J. Clim., 20, 5827–5841, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1686.1, 2007. a
Baker, J. A., Renshaw, R., Jackson, L. C., Dubois, C., Iovino, D., Zuo, H., Perez, R. C., Dong, S., Kersalé, M., Mayer, M., Mayer, J., Speich, S., and Lamont, T.: Overturning and heat transport variations in the South Atlantic in an ocean reanalysis ensemble, State Planet, 1-osr7, 4 pp., https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-1-osr7-4-2023, 2022. a
Bell, B., Hersbach, H., Simmons, A., Berrisford, P., Dahlgren, P., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Soci, C., Villaume, S., Bidlot, J.-R., Haimberger, L., Woollen, J., Buontempo, C., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 global reanalysis: Preliminary extension to 1950, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 147, 4186–4227, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4174, 2021. a
Bengtsson, L., Hagemann, S., and Hodges, K. I.: Can climate trends be calculated from reanalysis data?, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 109, D11111, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JD004536, 2004. a
Boers, N.: Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 680–688, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4, 2021. a
Bryden, H. L., Johns, W. E., King, B. A., McCarthy, G., McDonagh, E. L., Moat, B. I., and Smeed, D. A.: Reduction in Ocean Heat Transport at 26∘ N since 2008 Cools the Eastern Subpolar Gyre of the North Atlantic Ocean, J. Clim., 33, 1677–1689, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0323.1, 2020. a
Caesar, L., Rahmstorf, S., Robinson, A., Feulner, G., and Saba, V.: Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation, Nature, 556, 191–196, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5, 2018. a
Chemke, R., Zanna, L., and Polvani, L. M.: Identifying a human signal in the North Atlantic warming hole, Nat. Commun., 11, 1–7, 2020. a
Chen, J., Carlson, B. E., and Genio, A. D. D.: Evidence for Strengthening of the Tropical General Circulation in the 1990s, Science, 295, 838–841, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1065835, 2002. a
Cheng, L. and Zhu, J.: Benefits of CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble in Reconstructing Historical Ocean Subsurface Temperature Variations, J. Clim., 29, 5393–5416, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0730.1, 2016. a
Cheng, L., Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J., Boyer, T., Abraham, J., and Zhu, J.: Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015, Sci. Adv., 3, e1601545, https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601545, 2017. a, b, c, d
Chiodo, G. and Haimberger, L.: Interannual changes in mass consistent energy budgets from ERA-Interim and satellite data, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 115, D02112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JD012049, 2010. a
Cohen, J. and Barlow, M.: The NAO, the AO, and Global Warming: How Closely Related?, J. Clim., 18, 4498–4513, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3530.1, 2005. a
Cronin, M. F., Gentemann, C. L., Edson, J., Ueki, I., Bourassa, M., Brown, S., Clayson, C. A., Fairall, C. W., Farrar, J. T., Gille, S. T., Gulev, S., Josey, S. A., Kato, S., Katsumata, M., Kent, E., Krug, M., Minnett, P. J., Parfitt, R., Pinker, R. T., Stackhouse, P. W., Swart, S., Tomita, H., Vandemark, D., Weller, A. R., Yoneyama, K., Yu, L., and Zhang, D.: air-sea Fluxes With a Focus on Heat and Momentum, Front. Mar. Sci., 6, 430, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00430, 2019. a
Docquier, D. and Koenigk, T.: A review of interactions between ocean heat transport and Arctic sea ice, Environ. Res. Lett., 16, 123002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac30be, 2021. a
Douville, H., Raghavan, K., Renwick, J., Allan, R., Arias, P., Barlow, M., Cerezo-Mota, R., Cherchi, A., Gan, T., Gergis, J., Jiang, D., Khan, A., Mba, W. P., Rosenfeld, D., Tierney, J., and Zolina, O.: Water Cycle Changes, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 1055–1210, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.010, 2021. a
ECMWF: IFS Documentation CY47R3 – Part IV Physical processes, ECMWF, 1–232, https://doi.org/10.21957/eyrpir4vj, 2021. a, b, c
Fairall, C. W., Bradley, E. F., Hare, J. E., Grachev, A. A., and Edson, J. B.: Bulk Parameterization of Air–Sea Fluxes: Updates and Verification for the COARE Algorithm, J. Clim., 16, 571–591, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<0571:BPOASF>2.0.CO;2, 2003. a
Fasullo, J. T. and Trenberth, K. E.: The Annual Cycle of the Energy Budget, Part I: Global Mean and Land–Ocean Exchanges, J. Clim., 21, 2297–2312, https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1935.1, 2008. a
Fox-Kemper, B., Hewitt, H., Xiao, C., Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., Drijfhout, S., Edwards, T., Golledge, N., Hemer, M., Kopp, R., Krinner, G., Mix, A., Notz, D., Nowicki, S., Nurhati, I., Ruiz, L., Sallée, J.-B., Slangen, A., and Yu, Y.: Ocean, Cryosphere and Sea Level Change, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, 1211–1362, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.011, 2021. a, b, c, d, e, f
Gillett, N. P., Graf, H. F., and Osborn, T. J.: Climate Change and the North Atlantic Oscillation, American Geophysical Union (AGU), 193–209, https://doi.org/10.1029/134GM09, 2003. a
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R. J., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: The ERA5 Global Reanalysis, Q. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 146, 1999–2049, https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803, 2020. a, b, c, d, e
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford,, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz‐Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., Soci, C., Abdalla, S., Abellan, X., Balsamo, G., Bechtold, P., Biavati, G., Bidlot, J., Bonavita, M., De Chiara, G., Dahlgren, P., Dee, D., Diamantakis, M., Dragani, R., Flemming, J., Forbes, R., Fuentes, M., Geer, A., Haimberger, L., Healy, S., Hogan, R., Hólm, E., Janisková, M., Keeley, S., Laloyaux, P., Lopez, P., Lupu, C., Radnoti, G., de Rosnay, P., Rozum, I., Vamborg, F., Villaume, S., and Thépaut, J.-N.: Complete ERA5 global atmospheric reanalyis: Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/CDS.143582CF, 2023. a, b
Hodson, D. L. R., Robson, J. I., and Sutton, R. T.: An Anatomy of the Cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean in the 1960s and 1970s, J. Clim., 27, 8229–8243, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00301.1, 2014. a
Hurrell, J. W.: Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional Temperatures and Precipitation, Science, 269, 676–679, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.269.5224.676, 1995. a, b
Hurrell, J. W. and Deser, C.: North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation, J. Mar. Syst., 78, 28–41, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.11.026, 2009. a
Johns, W. E., Baringer, M. O., Beal, L. M., Cunningham, S. A., Kanzow, T., Bryden, H. L., Hirschi, J. J. M., Marotzke, J., Meinen, C. S., Shaw, B., and Curry, R.: Continuous, Array-Based Estimates of Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport at 26.5∘ N, J. Clim., 24, 2429–2449, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3997.1, 2011. a, b
Kerr, R. A.: A North Atlantic Climate Pacemaker for the Centuries, Science, 288, 1984–1985, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.288.5473.1984, 2000. a, b
Kossin, J. P., Knapp, K. R., Olander, T. L., and Velden, C. S.: Global increase in major tropical cyclone exceedance probability over the past four decades, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 117, 11975–11980, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1920849117, 2020. a
Liu, C., Allan, R. P., Mayer, M., Hyder, P., Loeb, N. G., Roberts, C. D., Valdivieso, M., Edwards, J. M., and Vidale, P.-L.: Evaluation of satellite and reanalysis-based global net surface energy flux and uncertainty estimates, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 122, 6250–6272, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JD026616, 2017. a, b
Liu, C., Yang, Y., Liao, X., Cao, N., Liu, J., Ou, N., Allan, R. P., Jin, L., Chen, N., and Zheng, R.: Discrepancies in Simulated Ocean Net Surface Heat Fluxes over the North Atlantic, Adv. Atmos. Sci., 39, 1941–1955, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-022-1360-7, 2022. a
Loeb, N. G., Mayer, M., Kato, S., Fasullo, J. T., Zuo, H., Senan, R., Lyman, J. M., Johnson, G. C., and Balmaseda, M.: Evaluating Twenty-Year Trends in Earth's Energy Flows From Observations and Reanalyses, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 127, e2022JD036686, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD036686, 2022. a
Mathew, S. S. and Kumar, K. K.: Characterization of the long-term changes in moisture, clouds and precipitation in the ascending and descending branches of the Hadley Circulation, J. Hydrol., 570, 366–377, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.12.047, 2019. a
Mayer, J.: Source code for 10.5194/esd-2023-8, Zenodo [code], https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10017792, 2023. a
Mayer, J., Mayer, M., and Haimberger, L.: Mass-consistent atmospheric energy and moisture budget monthly data from 1979 to present derived from ERA5 reanalysis, v1.0 [data set], https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.c2451f6b, 2022b. a, b
Mayer, M. and Haimberger, L.: Poleward Atmospheric Energy Transports and Their Variability as Evaluated from ECMWF Reanalysis Data, J. Clim., 25, 734–752, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00202.1, 2012. a
Mayer, M., Haimberger, L., Pietschnig, M., and Storto, A.: Facets of Arctic energy accumulation based on observations and reanalyses 2000–2015, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 10420–10429, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070557, 2016. a
Mayer, M., , Tietsche, S., Haimberger, L., Tsubouchi, T., Mayer, J., and Zuo, H.: An improved estimate of the coupled Arctic energy budget, J. Clim., 32, 7915–7934, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0233.1, 2019. a
McCarthy, G., Smeed, D., Johns, W., Frajka-Williams, E., Moat, B., Rayner, D., Baringer, M., Meinen, C., Collins, J., and Bryden, H.: Measuring the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26∘ N, Prog. Oceanogr., 130, 91–111, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2014.10.006, 2015. a
Mork, K. A., Skagseth, Ø., and Søiland, H.: Recent Warming and Freshening of the Norwegian Sea Observed by Argo Data, J. Clim., 32, 3695–3705, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0591.1, 2019. a
Muilwijk, M., Smedsrud, L. H., Ilicak, M., and Drange, H.: Atlantic Water Heat Transport Variability in the 20th Century Arctic Ocean From a Global Ocean Model and Observations, J. Geophys. Res.-Ocean., 123, 8159–8179, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JC014327, 2018. a, b
Rahmstorf, S., Box, J. E., Feulner, G., Mann, M. E., Robinson, A., Rutherford, S., and Schaffernicht, E. J.: Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation, Nat. Clim. Change, 5, 475–480, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2554, 2015. a, b, c
Roberts, C. D., Jackson, L., and McNeall, D.: Is the 2004–2012 reduction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation significant?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 3204–3210, https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059473, 2014. a
Shaman, J., Samelson, R. M., and Skyllingstad, E.: Air–Sea Fluxes over the Gulf Stream Region: Atmospheric Controls and Trends, J. Clim., 23, 2651–2670, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3269.1, 2010. a
Skagseth, Ø., Eldevik, T., Årthun, M., Asbjørnsen, H., Lien, V. S., and Smedsrud, L. H.: Reduced efficiency of the Barents Sea cooling machine, Nat. Clim. Change, 10, 661–666, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0772-6, 2020. a
Tanimoto, Y., Nakamura, H., Kagimoto, T., and Yamane, S.: An active role of extratropical sea surface temperature anomalies in determining anomalous turbulent heat flux, J. Geophys. Res.-Ocean., 108, 3304, https://doi.org/10.1029/2002JC001750, 2003. a
Trenberth, K. E.: Climate Diagnostics from Global Analyses: Conservation of Mass in ECMWF Analyses, J. Clim., 4, 707–722, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1991)004<0707:CDFGAC>2.0.CO;2, 1991. a, b
Trenberth, K. E. and Fasullo, J. T.: Atlantic meridional heat transports computed from balancing Earth's energy locally, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 1919–1927, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL072475, 2017. a, b
Trenberth, K. E. and Shea, D. J.: Atlantic hurricanes and natural variability in 2005, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L12704, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006GL026894, 2006. a
Trenberth, K. E., Fasullo, J. T., and Mackaro, J.: Atmospheric Moisture Transports from Ocean to Land and Global Energy Flows in Reanalyses, J. Clim., 24, 4907–4924, https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4171.1, 2011. a, b
Trenberth, K. E., Zhang, Y., Fasullo, J. T., and Cheng, L.: Observation-Based Estimates of Global and Basin Ocean Meridional Heat Transport Time Series, J. Clim., 32, 4567–4583, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0872.1, 2019. a, b
Tsubouchi, T., Bacon, S., Aksenov, Y., Garabato, A. C. N., Beszczynska-Möller, A., Hansen, E., de Steur, L., Curry, B., and Lee, C. M.: The Arctic Ocean Seasonal Cycles of Heat and Freshwater Fluxes: Observation-Based Inverse Estimates, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 48, 2029–2055, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-17-0239.1, 2018. a, b, c
Tsubouchi, T., kjetil Vage, Hansen, B., Larsen, K., Osterhus, S., Johnson, C., Jonsson, S., and Valdimarsson, H.: Increased ocean heat transport into the Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean over the period 1993–2016, Nat. Clim. Change, 11, 21–26, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00941-3, 2020. a, b, c
Visbeck, M. H., Hurrell, J. W., Polvani, L., and Cullen, H. M.: The North Atlantic Oscillation: Past, present, and future, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 98, 12876–12877, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.231391598, 2001. a, b
von Schuckmann, K., Traon, P.-Y. L., N. S., Pascual, A., Djavidnia, S., Gattuso, J.-P., Grégoire, M., Aaboe, S., Alari, V., Alexander, B. E., Alonso-Martirena, A., Aydogdu, A., Azzopardi, J., Bajo, M., Barbariol, F., Batistić, M., Behrens, A., Ismail, S. B., Benetazzo, A., Bitetto, I., Borghini, M., Bray, L., Capet, A., Carlucci, R., Chatterjee, S., Chiggiato, J., Ciliberti, S., Cipriano, G., Clementi, E., Cochrane, P., Cossarini, G., D'Andrea, L., Davison, S., Down, E., Drago, A., Druon, J.-N., Engelhard, G., Federico, I., Garić, R., Gauci, A., Gerin, R., Geyer, G., Giesen, R., Good, S., Graham, R., Grégoire, M., Greiner, E., Gundersen, K., Hélaouët, P., Hendricks, S., Heymans, J. J., Holt, J., Hure, M., Juza, M., Kassis, D., Kellett, P., Knol-Kauffman, M., Kountouris, P., Kõuts, M., Lagemaa, P., Lavergne, T., Legeais, J.-F., Traon, P.-Y. L., Libralato, S., Lien, V. S., Lima, L., Lind, S., Liu, Y., Macías, D., Maljutenko, I., Mangin, A., Männik, A., Marinova, V., Martellucci, R., Masnadi, F., Mauri, E., Mayer, M., Menna, M., Meulders, C., Møgster, J. S., Monier, M., Mork, K. A., Müller, M., Øie Nilsen, J. E., Notarstefano, G., Oviedo, J. L., Palerme, C., Palialexis, A., Panzeri, D., Pardo, S., Peneva, E., Pezzutto, P., Pirro, A., Platt, T., Poulain, P.-M., Prieto, L., Querin, S., Rabenstein, L., Raj, R. P., Raudsepp, U., Reale, M., Renshaw, R., Ricchi, A., Ricker, R., Rikka, S., Ruiz, J., Russo, T., Sanchez, J., Santoleri, R., Sathyendranath, S., Scarcella, G., Schroeder, K., Sparnocchia, S., Spedicato, M. T., Stanev, E., Staneva, J., Stocker, A., Stoffelen, A., Teruzzi, A., Townhill, B., Uiboupin, R., Valcheva, N., Vandenbulcke, L., Vindenes, H., von Schuckmann, K., Vrgoč, N., Wakelin, S., and Zupa, W.: Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report, Issue 5, J. Operat. Oceanogr., 14, 1–185, https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2021.1946240, 2021. a
Wang, Q., Wang, X., Wekerle, C., Danilov, S., Jung, T., Koldunov, N., Lind, S., Sein, D., Shu, Q., and Sidorenko, D.: Ocean Heat Transport Into the Barents Sea: Distinct Controls on the Upward Trend and Interannual Variability, Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 13180–13190, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL083837, 2019. a
Wang, Q., Wekerle, C., Wang, X., Danilov, S., Koldunov, N., Sein, D., Sidorenko, D., von Appen, W.-J., and Jung, T.: Intensification of the Atlantic Water Supply to the Arctic Ocean Through Fram Strait Induced by Arctic Sea Ice Decline, Geophys. Res. Lett., 47, e2019GL086682, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086682, 2020. a
Worthington, E. L., Moat, B. I., Smeed, D. A., Mecking, J. V., Marsh, R., and McCarthy, G. D.: A 30-year reconstruction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation shows no decline, Ocean Sci., 17, 285–299, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-285-2021, 2021. a
Yang, H., Lohmann, G., Wei, W., Dima, M., Ionita, M., and Liu, J.: Intensification and poleward shift of subtropical western boundary currents in a warming climate, J. Geophys. Res.-Ocean., 121, 4928–4945, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JC011513, 2016. a, b
Zhang, R., Sutton, R., Danabasoglu, G., Kwon, Y.-O., Marsh, R., Yeager, S. G., Amrhein, D. E., and Little, C. M.: A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts, Rev. Geophys., 57, 316–375, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019RG000644, 2019. a
Short summary
This study investigates the temporal stability and reliability of winter-month trends of air–sea heat fluxes from ERA5 forecasts over the North Atlantic basin for the period 1950–2019. Driving forces of trends and the impact of modes of climate variability and analysis increments on air–sea heat fluxes are investigated. Finally, a new and independent estimate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakening is provided and associated with a decrease in air–sea heat fluxes.
This study investigates the temporal stability and reliability of winter-month trends of air–sea...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint