Articles | Volume 14, issue 5
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-1015-2023
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Advancing the estimation of future climate impacts within the United States
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- Final revised paper (published on 04 Oct 2023)
- Preprint (discussion started on 01 Feb 2023)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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CC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-114', Richard Rosen, 10 Feb 2023
- AC1: 'Reply on CC1', Corinne Hartin, 18 Apr 2023
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-114', Anonymous Referee #1, 09 Mar 2023
- CC2: 'Reply on RC1', Richard Rosen, 09 Mar 2023
- AC2: 'Reply on RC1', Corinne Hartin, 18 Apr 2023
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2023-114', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Mar 2023
- AC3: 'Reply on RC2', Corinne Hartin, 18 Apr 2023
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (18 Apr 2023) by Christian Franzke
AR by Corinne Hartin on behalf of the Authors (25 May 2023)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (30 May 2023) by Christian Franzke
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (15 Jun 2023)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (03 Jul 2023)
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (04 Jul 2023) by Christian Franzke
AR by Corinne Hartin on behalf of the Authors (17 Jul 2023)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (30 Jul 2023) by Christian Franzke
AR by Corinne Hartin on behalf of the Authors (09 Aug 2023)
Author's response
Manuscript
Because this article depends on the results of running EPA's FrEDI model which has a long history of development and publications by EPA staff, it is impossible to review on it own. Namely, if one believes that the FrEDI model is fairly accurate and well developed based on real world data, then the results cited in this paper are worth publicizing. Even so I would not report results for after 2050, because in my view no one has a clue how to extrapolate future damages beyond that point. Climate impact data only exists for about the last 40 years at most, and climate impacts were barely measurable until 2000, or only about 20 years ago. Thus claiming to be able to extrapolate climate caused damages for more than 30 years into the future is not credible. (I have extensive experience writing about the economics of climate change as one can discover from my Research Gate files.) But EPA staff might disagree since their model is intended to make long-run projections. I just would not believe that it is possible for any model to do so. Of course, by its nature estimating future damages has always been a highly controversial research area where the uncertainty for results is extemely high but not acknowled enough in this paper.
In addition, the Burke, et.al. (2015) paper referenced in this paper is all wrong, but, fortunately, I don't think the methodology of that paper was used in FrEDI. If it was used, than the entire paper being proposed for publication here is all wrong, as well as all previous publications. More than one year ago I published a complete critique of the Burke paper. See the attached paper. A short version of my argument was also published as a letter to the PNAS in prior years, so these authors should have known not to rely on Burke (2015) and not to use it as a reference anymore.