Articles | Volume 13, issue 1
Research article
19 Jan 2022
Research article |  | 19 Jan 2022

The fractional energy balance equation for climate projections through 2100

Roman Procyk, Shaun Lovejoy, and Raphael Hébert

Data sets

Effective Radiative Forcing from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (v0.3.1) C. J. Smith

Short summary
This paper presents a new class of energy balance model that accounts for the long memory within the Earth's energy storage. The model is calibrated on instrumental temperature records and the historical energy budget of the Earth using an error model predicted by the model itself. Our equilibrium climate sensitivity and future temperature projection estimates are consistent with those estimated by complex climate models.
Final-revised paper