Articles | Volume 13, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 81–107, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-81-2022
Earth Syst. Dynam., 13, 81–107, 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-81-2022

Research article 19 Jan 2022

Research article | 19 Jan 2022

The fractional energy balance equation for climate projections through 2100

Roman Procyk et al.

Data sets

Effective Radiative Forcing from Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (v0.3.1) C. J. Smith https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3515339

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Short summary
This paper presents a new class of energy balance model that accounts for the long memory within the Earth's energy storage. The model is calibrated on instrumental temperature records and the historical energy budget of the Earth using an error model predicted by the model itself. Our equilibrium climate sensitivity and future temperature projection estimates are consistent with those estimated by complex climate models.
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