Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021

Philip, Sjoukje Y.; Kew, Sarah F.; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Anslow, Faron S.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Vautard, Robert; Coumou, Dim; Ebi, Kristie L.; Arrighi, Julie; Singh, Roop; van Aalst, Maarten; Pereira Marghidan, Carolina; Wehner, Michael; Yang, Wenchang; Li, Sihan; Schumacher, Dominik L.; Hauser, Mathias; Bonnet, Rémy; Luu, Linh N.; Lehner, Flavio; Gillett, Nathan; Tradowsky, Jordis S.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Rodell, Chris; Stull, Roland B.; Howard, Rosie; Otto, Friederike E. L.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022

Articles | Volume 13, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1689-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 13, issue 4

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

08 Dec 2022

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 08 Dec 2022

Rapid attribution analysis of the extraordinary heat wave on the Pacific coast of the US and Canada in June 2021

Sjoukje Y. Philip, Sarah F. Kew, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Faron S. Anslow, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Robert Vautard, Dim Coumou, Kristie L. Ebi, Julie Arrighi, Roop Singh, Maarten van Aalst, Carolina Pereira Marghidan, Michael Wehner, Wenchang Yang, Sihan Li, Dominik L. Schumacher, Mathias Hauser, Rémy Bonnet, Linh N. Luu, Flavio Lehner, Nathan Gillett, Jordis S. Tradowsky, Gabriel A. Vecchi, Chris Rodell, Roland B. Stull, Rosie Howard, and Friederike E. L. Otto

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Final revised paper (published on 08 Dec 2022)
Preprint (discussion started on 12 Nov 2021)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

RC1:
'Comment on esd-2021-90', Anonymous Referee #1, 14 Dec 2021

I have no objections with respect to the methods, writing and graphics. The paper is relevant, timely and should be published rapidly without changes.

Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-90-RC1
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Sjoukje Philip, 01 Feb 2022
  
  We thank the reviewer for reviewing the manuscript. We are glad the reviewer acknowledges the relevance of this rapid study.
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-90-AC1
RC2:
'Comment on esd-2021-90', Anonymous Referee #2, 23 Dec 2021

The comment was uploaded in the form of a supplement: https://esd.copernicus.org/preprints/esd-2021-90/esd-2021-90-RC2-supplement.pdf

Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-90-RC2
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Sjoukje Philip, 01 Feb 2022
  
  Please find our reply in the attached document.
  
  Citation: https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-90-AC2

Peer review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision | EF: Editorial file upload

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (06 Apr 2022) by Valerio Lucarini

AR by Sjoukje Philip on behalf of the Authors (25 Apr 2022) Author's response Author's tracked changes Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (18 May 2022) by Valerio Lucarini

RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (21 Jun 2022)

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (01 Aug 2022) by Valerio Lucarini

AR by Sjoukje Philip on behalf of the Authors (23 Aug 2022) Author's response Author's tracked changes Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (07 Sep 2022) by Valerio Lucarini

AR by Sjoukje Philip on behalf of the Authors (15 Nov 2022) Manuscript

Short summary

In June 2021, the Pacific Northwest of the US and Canada saw record temperatures far exceeding those previously observed. This attribution study found such a severe heat wave would have been virtually impossible without human-induced climate change. Assuming no nonlinear interactions, such events have become at least 150 times more common, are about 2 °C hotter and will become even more common as warming continues. Therefore, adaptation and mitigation are urgently needed to prepare society.