Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
Research article
26 Aug 2022
Research article |  | 26 Aug 2022

Evaluating uncertainty in aerosol forcing of tropical precipitation shifts

Amy H. Peace, Ben B. B. Booth, Leighton A. Regayre, Ken S. Carslaw, David M. H. Sexton, Céline J. W. Bonfils, and John W. Rostron

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Cited articles

Ackerley, D., Booth, B. B. B., Knight, S. H. E., Highwood, E. J., Frame, D. J., Allen, M. R., and Rowell, D. P.: Sensitivity of Twentieth-Century Sahel Rainfall to Sulfate Aerosol and CO2 Forcing, J. Climate, 24, 4999–5014,, 2011. 
Allen, R. J.: A 21st century northward tropical precipitation shift caused by future anthropogenic aerosol reductions, J. Geophys. Res., 120, 9087–9102,, 2015. 
Allen, R. J., Evan, A. T., and Booth, B. B. B.: Interhemispheric aerosol radiative forcing and tropical precipitation shifts during the late Twentieth Century, J. Climate, 28, 8219–8246,, 2015. 
Andrews, T., Andrews, M. B., Bodas-Salcedo, A., Jones, G. S., Kuhlbrodt, T., Manners, J., Menary, M. B., Ridley, J., Ringer, M. A., Sellar, A. A., Senior, C. A., and Tang, Y.: Forcings, Feedbacks, and Climate Sensitivity in HadGEM3-GC3.1 and UKESM1, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 11, 4377–4394,, 2019. 
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Anthropogenic aerosol emissions have been linked to driving climate responses such as shifts in the location of tropical rainfall. However, the interaction of aerosols with climate remains one of the most uncertain aspects of climate modelling and limits our ability to predict future climate change. We use an ensemble of climate model simulations to investigate what impact the large uncertainty in how aerosols interact with climate has on predicting future tropical rainfall shifts.
Final-revised paper