Evaluating uncertainty in aerosol forcing  of tropical precipitation shifts

Peace, Amy H.; Booth, Ben B. B.; Regayre, Leighton A.; Carslaw, Ken S.; Sexton, David M. H.; Bonfils, Céline J. W.; Rostron, John W.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1215-2022

Articles | Volume 13, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1215-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1215-2022

© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 13, issue 3

Research article

|

26 Aug 2022

Research article |

| 26 Aug 2022

Evaluating uncertainty in aerosol forcing of tropical precipitation shifts

Amy H. Peace, Ben B. B. Booth, Leighton A. Regayre, Ken S. Carslaw, David M. H. Sexton, Céline J. W. Bonfils, and John W. Rostron

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1215-2022-supplement

Data sets

Evaluating Uncertainty in Aerosol Forcing of Tropical Precipitation Shifts A. H. Peace, B. B. B. Booth, L. A. Regayre, K. S. Carslaw, D. M. H. Sexton, C. J. W. Bonfils, and J. W. Rostron https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6979591

UKCP18 Global Projections at 60 km Resolution for 1900-2100 Met Office Hadley Centre https://catalogue.ceda.ac.uk/uuid/97bc0c622a24489aa105f5b8a8efa3f0

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Short summary

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions have been linked to driving climate responses such as shifts in the location of tropical rainfall. However, the interaction of aerosols with climate remains one of the most uncertain aspects of climate modelling and limits our ability to predict future climate change. We use an ensemble of climate model simulations to investigate what impact the large uncertainty in how aerosols interact with climate has on predicting future tropical rainfall shifts.