Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1215-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-13-1215-2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 13, issue 3
Research article
 | 
26 Aug 2022
Research article |  | 26 Aug 2022

Evaluating uncertainty in aerosol forcing of tropical precipitation shifts

Amy H. Peace, Ben B. B. Booth, Leighton A. Regayre, Ken S. Carslaw, David M. H. Sexton, Céline J. W. Bonfils, and John W. Rostron

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Latest update: 24 Aug 2025
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Short summary
Anthropogenic aerosol emissions have been linked to driving climate responses such as shifts in the location of tropical rainfall. However, the interaction of aerosols with climate remains one of the most uncertain aspects of climate modelling and limits our ability to predict future climate change. We use an ensemble of climate model simulations to investigate what impact the large uncertainty in how aerosols interact with climate has on predicting future tropical rainfall shifts.
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