Articles | Volume 12, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
23 Feb 2021
Research article |
| 23 Feb 2021
| 23 Feb 2021
How modelling paradigms affect simulated future land use change
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric
Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Ian Holman
School of Water, Energy and Environment, Cranfield University, Vincent Building, Bedford MK43 0AL, UK
Mark Rounsevell
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric
Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Kreuzeckbahnstraße 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, UK
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Cited
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Boosting the Scalability of Farm-Level Models: Efficient Surrogate Modeling of Compositional Simulation Output C. Troost et al. 10.1007/s10614-022-10276-0
- Land-use change in a Nordic future towards bioeconomy: A methodological framework to compare and merge stakeholder and expert opinions on qualitative scenarios A. Lyche Solheim et al. 10.1016/j.catena.2023.107100
- Transitioning complex socioeconomic modeling to informed and visualized decision-making: A tightly coupled planning support system Y. Kwak et al. 10.1016/j.apgeog.2024.103332
- Potential of land-based climate change mitigation strategies on abandoned cropland M. Gvein et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00696-7
- Exploring the effects of protected area networks on the European land system A. Staccione et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117741
- An adaptable integrated modelling platform to support rapidly evolving agricultural and environmental policy P. Harrison et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105821
- What would it look like? Visualizing a future US Corn Belt landscape with more table food production T. Stone et al. 10.1017/S1742170524000024
- Agent‐Based Modeling of Alternative Futures in the British Land Use System C. Brown et al. 10.1029/2022EF002905
- Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways F. Jäger et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024
- Optimizing Ghana’s Socioeconomic Metabolism Amid Urbanization from 2000 to 2019: An Emergy Synthesis P. Boateng & J. Lee 10.3390/su16156484
- The role of culture in land system science Y. le Polain de Waroux et al. 10.1080/1747423X.2021.1950229
- Comparing the climate change mitigation potentials of alternative land uses: Crops for biofuels or biochar vs. natural regrowth A. Løvenskiold et al. 10.1016/j.geosus.2022.11.004
- Toward quantification of the feasible potential of land-based carbon dioxide removal O. Perkins et al. 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.11.011
- Assessing future land-uses under planning scenarios: A case study of The Brantas River Basin, Indonesia B. Wiwoho et al. 10.1016/j.envc.2024.100873
- Coastal Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Trajectories: Are They Sustainable? R. Faria de Deus & J. Tenedório 10.3390/su13168840
- Comparing the structural uncertainty and uncertainty management in four common Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) model software packages D. García-Álvarez et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105411
- Agricultural land use modeling and climate change adaptation: A reinforcement learning approach C. Stetter et al. 10.1002/aepp.13448
- A Dynamic Performance and Differentiation Management Policy for Urban Construction Land Use Change in Gansu, China Y. Ma et al. 10.3390/land11060942
- Comparing trends of crop and pasture in future land-use scenarios for climate change mitigation M. Malbranque et al. 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.003
- The sustainable use of soils: A journey from wicked problems to wicked solutions for soil policy F. Terribile et al. 10.1016/j.soisec.2024.100174
20 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Boosting the Scalability of Farm-Level Models: Efficient Surrogate Modeling of Compositional Simulation Output C. Troost et al. 10.1007/s10614-022-10276-0
- Land-use change in a Nordic future towards bioeconomy: A methodological framework to compare and merge stakeholder and expert opinions on qualitative scenarios A. Lyche Solheim et al. 10.1016/j.catena.2023.107100
- Transitioning complex socioeconomic modeling to informed and visualized decision-making: A tightly coupled planning support system Y. Kwak et al. 10.1016/j.apgeog.2024.103332
- Potential of land-based climate change mitigation strategies on abandoned cropland M. Gvein et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00696-7
- Exploring the effects of protected area networks on the European land system A. Staccione et al. 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117741
- An adaptable integrated modelling platform to support rapidly evolving agricultural and environmental policy P. Harrison et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2023.105821
- What would it look like? Visualizing a future US Corn Belt landscape with more table food production T. Stone et al. 10.1017/S1742170524000024
- Agent‐Based Modeling of Alternative Futures in the British Land Use System C. Brown et al. 10.1029/2022EF002905
- Fire weather compromises forestation-reliant climate mitigation pathways F. Jäger et al. 10.5194/esd-15-1055-2024
- Optimizing Ghana’s Socioeconomic Metabolism Amid Urbanization from 2000 to 2019: An Emergy Synthesis P. Boateng & J. Lee 10.3390/su16156484
- The role of culture in land system science Y. le Polain de Waroux et al. 10.1080/1747423X.2021.1950229
- Comparing the climate change mitigation potentials of alternative land uses: Crops for biofuels or biochar vs. natural regrowth A. Løvenskiold et al. 10.1016/j.geosus.2022.11.004
- Toward quantification of the feasible potential of land-based carbon dioxide removal O. Perkins et al. 10.1016/j.oneear.2023.11.011
- Assessing future land-uses under planning scenarios: A case study of The Brantas River Basin, Indonesia B. Wiwoho et al. 10.1016/j.envc.2024.100873
- Coastal Land-Use and Land-Cover Change Trajectories: Are They Sustainable? R. Faria de Deus & J. Tenedório 10.3390/su13168840
- Comparing the structural uncertainty and uncertainty management in four common Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) model software packages D. García-Álvarez et al. 10.1016/j.envsoft.2022.105411
- Agricultural land use modeling and climate change adaptation: A reinforcement learning approach C. Stetter et al. 10.1002/aepp.13448
- A Dynamic Performance and Differentiation Management Policy for Urban Construction Land Use Change in Gansu, China Y. Ma et al. 10.3390/land11060942
- Comparing trends of crop and pasture in future land-use scenarios for climate change mitigation M. Malbranque et al. 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.05.003
- The sustainable use of soils: A journey from wicked problems to wicked solutions for soil policy F. Terribile et al. 10.1016/j.soisec.2024.100174
Latest update: 13 Dec 2024
Short summary
The variety of human and natural processes in the land system can be modelled in many different ways. However, little is known about how and why basic model assumptions affect model results. We compared two models that represent land use in completely distinct ways and found several results that differed greatly. We identify the main assumptions that caused these differences and therefore key issues that need to be addressed for more robust model development.
The variety of human and natural processes in the land system can be modelled in many different...
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