How modelling paradigms affect  simulated future land use change

Brown, Calum; Holman, Ian; Rounsevell, Mark

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021

Articles | Volume 12, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 12, issue 1

Research article

|

23 Feb 2021

Research article |

| 23 Feb 2021

How modelling paradigms affect simulated future land use change

Calum Brown, Ian Holman, and Mark Rounsevell

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Final revised paper (published on 23 Feb 2021)
Preprint (discussion started on 06 Aug 2020)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC1: 'REVIEW REPORT', Helen Briassoulis, 10 Sep 2020
- AC1: 'Author responses to R1', Calum Brown, 22 Oct 2020
RC2: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #2, 16 Sep 2020
- AC2: 'Author responses to R2', Calum Brown, 22 Oct 2020
RC3: 'Review: How model paradigms affect our representation of future land-use change', Robert Huber, 21 Sep 2020
- AC3: 'Author responses to R3', Calum Brown, 22 Oct 2020

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (23 Oct 2020) by Gabriele Messori

AR by Calum Brown on behalf of the Authors (04 Dec 2020)

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (08 Dec 2020) by Gabriele Messori

RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (23 Dec 2020)

RR by Helen Briassoulis (27 Dec 2020)

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (07 Jan 2021) by Gabriele Messori

AR by Calum Brown on behalf of the Authors (17 Jan 2021) Author's response Author's tracked changes Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (19 Jan 2021) by Gabriele Messori

AR by Calum Brown on behalf of the Authors (21 Jan 2021) Manuscript

Short summary

The variety of human and natural processes in the land system can be modelled in many different ways. However, little is known about how and why basic model assumptions affect model results. We compared two models that represent land use in completely distinct ways and found several results that differed greatly. We identify the main assumptions that caused these differences and therefore key issues that need to be addressed for more robust model development.