Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1371-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1371-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Impacts of compound hot–dry extremes on US soybean yields
Department of Water and Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental
Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Anne F. Van Loon
Department of Water and Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental
Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Jeroen Aerts
Department of Water and Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental
Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Deltares Institute, Delft, the Netherlands
Dim Coumou
Department of Water and Climate Risk, Institute for Environmental
Studies (IVM), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands
Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the
Netherlands
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49 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Amplified agricultural impacts from more frequent and intense sequential heat events R. Hamed et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae06b8
- Compound droughts and hot extremes: Characteristics, drivers, changes, and impacts Z. Hao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104241
- One-third of the global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate change R. Hamed et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02171-x
- Preseason ENSO signals and the underlying mechanisms driving soybean yield anomaly in the Americas M. Li & X. Li https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2026.128077
- The preseason warming of the Indian Ocean resulting in soybean failure in US M. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2187-2025
- Propagation of different types of compound drought-hot events: Spatiotemporal patterns and response relationship Q. Ma et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103031
- Interaction between dry and hot extremes at a global scale using a cascade modeling framework S. Mukherjee et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-35748-7
- Persistent La Niñas drive joint soybean harvest failures in North and South America R. Hamed et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-255-2023
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- Century‐long variations of growing‐season compound dry–hot extremes and their links with large‐scale climate patterns in China S. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8275
- Enhancing weather index insurance through surrogate models: leveraging machine learning techniques and remote sensing data S. Wijesena & B. Pradhan https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/adba2c
- Multi-objective optimization of sustainable aviation fuel production pathways in the U.S. Corn Belt E. Ari Akdemir et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2025.107590
- Dheed: an ERA5 based global database of compound dry and hot extreme events from 1950 to 2023 M. Weynants et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6621-2025
- Increasing exposure of cotton growing areas to compound drought and heat events in a warming climate S. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109307
- Droughts are coming on faster D. Walker & A. Van Loon https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adh3097
- A data-driven framework for assessing climatic impact drivers in the context of food security M. Benso et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025
- Three‐dimensional phenotyping of soybean roots under different water treatment conditions using fringe projection V. MacDans et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ppj2.70055
- Metabolite-derived spectral modelling can differentiate heat and drought stress under hot-dry environments W. Zhong et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2025.114884
- Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events B. van den Hurk et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100500
- Coupling Process-Based Crop Model and Extreme Climate Indicators with Machine Learning Can Improve the Predictions and Reduce Uncertainties of Global Soybean Yields Q. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12111791
- Large-Scale Climate Factors of Compound Agrometeorological Disasters of Spring Maize in Liaoning, Northeast China S. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14091414
- Climate normals shape regional disparities of cotton yield failures compared to dominant impacts from climate extremes S. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2024.127490
- Towards optimal anticipatory action: Maximizing the effectiveness of agricultural early warning systems with operations research D. De Clercq et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105249
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- From compound climate risks to adaptive governance: Sectoral economic exposure to heat-drought compound events in coastal China J. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2025.107755
- Physiological Responses, Molecular Basis, and Integrated Regulation of Heat Tolerance in Soybean H. Geng et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants15111758
- Genetic progress battles climate variability: drivers of soybean yield gains in China from 2006 to 2020 L. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-023-00905-9
- Developing a novel framework to re-examine half a century of compound drought and heatwave events in mainland China L. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162366
- Quantifying the compounding effects of natural hazard events: a case study on wildfires and floods in California S. Dulin et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00090-7
- Compound heat and moisture extreme impacts on global crop yields under climate change C. Lesk et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00368-8
- Substantially increased risk of elderly to compound heat and drought events in coastal China under 1.5 °C–3.0 °C warming scenarios J. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105575
- Compound Dry and Wet Extremes Lead to an Increased Risk of Rice Yield Loss H. Chen & S. Wang https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105817
- Understanding the impacts of extreme temperature and humidity compounds on winter wheat traits in China T. Jiang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110354
- Spatiotemporal variation of growth–stage specific concurrent climate extremes and their impacts on rice yield in southern China R. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1971-2025
- UAV-based phenotyping outperforms visual canopy wilting for evaluating soybean drought tolerance and yield retention under rainfed conditions P. Pawar et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2026.1835549
- Toward sustainable soybean supply and consumption in China under climate change and policy adaptation Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2026.02.010
- Soil properties modulate actual evapotranspiration and precipitation impacts on crop yields in the USA M. Suliman et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175172
- Land–atmosphere coupling exacerbates the moisture-associated heterogeneous impacts of compound extreme events on maize yield in China Z. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad34a7
- Land–atmosphere feedbacks contribute to crop failure in global rainfed breadbaskets H. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00375-6
- A Review of Data for Compound Drought and Heatwave Stress Impacts on Crops: Current Progress, Knowledge Gaps, and Future Pathways Y. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14142158
- Effects of compound hydro-meteorological extremes on rice yield in different cultivation practices in India A. Mishra et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04894-x
- Weed Management in Edamame Soybean Production N. Pavlović et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14223438
- Transformer model to determine spatio-temporal relationships of variables, and interpretability for soybean seed yield, oil, and protein prediction T. Ayanlade et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/frai.2026.1750108
- Nonlinear increase of compound drought-heatwave events since the early 2000s Y. Kim et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aea3038
- Compound and cascading droughts and heatwaves decrease maize yields by nearly half in Sinaloa, Mexico S. Sutanto et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-024-00026-7
- Recent shift from energy- to moisture-limitation over global croplands E. Coffel & C. Lesk https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5032
- Soybean response under climatic scenarios with changed mean and variability under rainfed and irrigated conditions in major soybean-growing states of the USA A. Timilsina et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859623000011
- Rapid changes in warm and cold extremes in recent decades and their future projections for India R. Kumar et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125832
- ENSO exacerbated the impact of compound dry–hot events on maize yield over China during 1961–2020 X. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104828
49 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Amplified agricultural impacts from more frequent and intense sequential heat events R. Hamed et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae06b8
- Compound droughts and hot extremes: Characteristics, drivers, changes, and impacts Z. Hao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104241
- One-third of the global soybean production failure in 2012 is attributable to climate change R. Hamed et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02171-x
- Preseason ENSO signals and the underlying mechanisms driving soybean yield anomaly in the Americas M. Li & X. Li https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2026.128077
- The preseason warming of the Indian Ocean resulting in soybean failure in US M. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2187-2025
- Propagation of different types of compound drought-hot events: Spatiotemporal patterns and response relationship Q. Ma et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2025.103031
- Interaction between dry and hot extremes at a global scale using a cascade modeling framework S. Mukherjee et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-35748-7
- Persistent La Niñas drive joint soybean harvest failures in North and South America R. Hamed et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-255-2023
- Compound drought-heatwaves in China: driving factors and risks A. Feng et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-025-07621-5
- Century‐long variations of growing‐season compound dry–hot extremes and their links with large‐scale climate patterns in China S. Guo et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8275
- Enhancing weather index insurance through surrogate models: leveraging machine learning techniques and remote sensing data S. Wijesena & B. Pradhan https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/adba2c
- Multi-objective optimization of sustainable aviation fuel production pathways in the U.S. Corn Belt E. Ari Akdemir et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biombioe.2025.107590
- Dheed: an ERA5 based global database of compound dry and hot extreme events from 1950 to 2023 M. Weynants et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-17-6621-2025
- Increasing exposure of cotton growing areas to compound drought and heat events in a warming climate S. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agwat.2025.109307
- Droughts are coming on faster D. Walker & A. Van Loon https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adh3097
- A data-driven framework for assessing climatic impact drivers in the context of food security M. Benso et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-25-1387-2025
- Three‐dimensional phenotyping of soybean roots under different water treatment conditions using fringe projection V. MacDans et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ppj2.70055
- Metabolite-derived spectral modelling can differentiate heat and drought stress under hot-dry environments W. Zhong et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2025.114884
- Climate impact storylines for assessing socio-economic responses to remote events B. van den Hurk et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100500
- Coupling Process-Based Crop Model and Extreme Climate Indicators with Machine Learning Can Improve the Predictions and Reduce Uncertainties of Global Soybean Yields Q. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/agriculture12111791
- Large-Scale Climate Factors of Compound Agrometeorological Disasters of Spring Maize in Liaoning, Northeast China S. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14091414
- Climate normals shape regional disparities of cotton yield failures compared to dominant impacts from climate extremes S. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eja.2024.127490
- Towards optimal anticipatory action: Maximizing the effectiveness of agricultural early warning systems with operations research D. De Clercq et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105249
- Increased probability of hot and dry weather extremes during the growing season threatens global crop yields M. Heino et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-29378-2
- From compound climate risks to adaptive governance: Sectoral economic exposure to heat-drought compound events in coastal China J. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2025.107755
- Physiological Responses, Molecular Basis, and Integrated Regulation of Heat Tolerance in Soybean H. Geng et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants15111758
- Genetic progress battles climate variability: drivers of soybean yield gains in China from 2006 to 2020 L. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13593-023-00905-9
- Developing a novel framework to re-examine half a century of compound drought and heatwave events in mainland China L. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162366
- Quantifying the compounding effects of natural hazard events: a case study on wildfires and floods in California S. Dulin et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-025-00090-7
- Compound heat and moisture extreme impacts on global crop yields under climate change C. Lesk et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-022-00368-8
- Substantially increased risk of elderly to compound heat and drought events in coastal China under 1.5 °C–3.0 °C warming scenarios J. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105575
- Compound Dry and Wet Extremes Lead to an Increased Risk of Rice Yield Loss H. Chen & S. Wang https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL105817
- Understanding the impacts of extreme temperature and humidity compounds on winter wheat traits in China T. Jiang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110354
- Spatiotemporal variation of growth–stage specific concurrent climate extremes and their impacts on rice yield in southern China R. Sun et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-1971-2025
- UAV-based phenotyping outperforms visual canopy wilting for evaluating soybean drought tolerance and yield retention under rainfed conditions P. Pawar et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2026.1835549
- Toward sustainable soybean supply and consumption in China under climate change and policy adaptation Y. Wang et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spc.2026.02.010
- Soil properties modulate actual evapotranspiration and precipitation impacts on crop yields in the USA M. Suliman et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.175172
- Land–atmosphere coupling exacerbates the moisture-associated heterogeneous impacts of compound extreme events on maize yield in China Z. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad34a7
- Land–atmosphere feedbacks contribute to crop failure in global rainfed breadbaskets H. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00375-6
- A Review of Data for Compound Drought and Heatwave Stress Impacts on Crops: Current Progress, Knowledge Gaps, and Future Pathways Y. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14142158
- Effects of compound hydro-meteorological extremes on rice yield in different cultivation practices in India A. Mishra et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-024-04894-x
- Weed Management in Edamame Soybean Production N. Pavlović et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/plants14223438
- Transformer model to determine spatio-temporal relationships of variables, and interpretability for soybean seed yield, oil, and protein prediction T. Ayanlade et al. https://doi.org/10.3389/frai.2026.1750108
- Nonlinear increase of compound drought-heatwave events since the early 2000s Y. Kim et al. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aea3038
- Compound and cascading droughts and heatwaves decrease maize yields by nearly half in Sinaloa, Mexico S. Sutanto et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-024-00026-7
- Recent shift from energy- to moisture-limitation over global croplands E. Coffel & C. Lesk https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ad5032
- Soybean response under climatic scenarios with changed mean and variability under rainfed and irrigated conditions in major soybean-growing states of the USA A. Timilsina et al. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859623000011
- Rapid changes in warm and cold extremes in recent decades and their future projections for India R. Kumar et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2025.125832
- ENSO exacerbated the impact of compound dry–hot events on maize yield over China during 1961–2020 X. Wu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104828
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 13 Jun 2026
Short summary
Soy yields in the US are affected by climate variability. We identify the main within-season climate drivers and highlight potential compound events and associated agricultural impacts. Our results show that soy yields are most negatively influenced by the combination of high temperature and low soil moisture during the summer crop reproductive period. Furthermore, we highlight the role of temperature and moisture coupling across the year in generating these hot–dry extremes and linked impacts.
Soy yields in the US are affected by climate variability. We identify the main within-season...
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