Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1099–1113, 2021
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1099–1113, 2021

Research article 09 Nov 2021

Research article | 09 Nov 2021

Climate change impacts on solar power generation and its spatial variability in Europe based on CMIP6

Xinyuan Hou et al.

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Cited articles

Bartok, B., Wild, M., Folini, D., Lüthi, D., Kotlarski, S., Schär, C., Vautard, R., Jerez, S., and Imecs, Z.: Projected changes in surface solar radiation in CMIP5 global climate models and in EURO-CORDEX regional climate models for Europe, Clim. Dyn., 49, 2665–2683,, 2017. 
Bloomfield, H. C., Gonzalez, P. L. M., Lundquist, J. K., Stoop, L. P., Browell, J., Dargaville, R., De Felice, M., Gruber, K., Hilbers, A., Kies, A., Panteli, M., Thornton, H. E., Wohland, J., Zeyringer, M., and Brayshaw, D. J.: The Importance of Weather and Climate to Energy Systems: A Workshop on Next Generation Challenges in Energy–Climate Modeling, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 102, E159–E167,, 2021. 
Boé, J., Somot, S., Corre, L., and Nabat, P.: Large discrepancies in summer climate change over Europe as projected by global and regional climate models: causes and consequences, Clim. Dyn., 54, 2981–3002,, 2020. 
Craig, M. T., Losada Carreño, I., Rossol, M., Hodge, B.-M., and Brancucci, C.: Effects on power system operations of potential changes in wind and solar generation potential under climate change, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 34014,, 2019. 
Creutzig, F., Agoston, P., Goldschmidt, J. C., Luderer, G., Nemet, G., and Pietzcker, R. C.: The underestimated potential of solar energy to mitigate climate change, Nat. Energy, 2, 17140,, 2017. 
Short summary
Solar photovoltaics (PV) matters for the carbon neutrality goal. We use climate scenarios to quantify climate risk for PV in Europe and find higher PV potential. The seasonal cycle of PV generation changes in most places. We find an increase in the spatial correlations of daily PV production, implying that PV power balancing through redistribution will be more difficult in the future. Thus, changes in the spatiotemporal structure of PV generation should be included in power system design.
Final-revised paper