Articles | Volume 12, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1099-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1099-2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
09 Nov 2021
Research article |
| 09 Nov 2021
| 09 Nov 2021
Climate change impacts on solar power generation and its spatial variability in Europe based on CMIP6
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation
Center, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
Martin Wild
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Doris Folini
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Stelios Kazadzis
Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation
Center, Davos Dorf, Switzerland
Jan Wohland
Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Related authors
Xinyuan Hou, Kyriakoula Papachristopoulou, and Stelios Kazadzis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-891, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-891, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed aerosol ground measurements and model based aerosol optical depth (AOD) forecasts to study variations in AOD at different global sites. We compared day-ahead AOD forecast methods and assessed their impact on forecasting clear-sky direct normal irradiance (DNI). While none of the methods accurately forecast DNI within 5 %, most sites showed a DNI deviation within 20 %, especially at sites with urban-industrial aerosols.
Akriti Masoom, Stelios Kazadzis, Robin Lewis Modini, Martin Gysel-Beer, Julian Gröbner, Martine Collaud Coen, Francisco Navas-Guzman, Natalia Kouremeti, Benjamin Tobias Brem, Nora Kristina Nowak, Giovanni Martucci, Maxime Hervo, and Sophie Erb
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2755, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2755, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (ACP).
Short summary
Short summary
This article aims at providing details on the special aerosol properties observed during 2023 Canadian wildfire plume transport and exploring the synergism between remote sensing and in situ measurements for investigating the cause of the occurrence of the observations of special aerosol properties.
Angelos Karanikolas, Benjamin Torres, Masahiro Momoi, Marcos Herreras-Giralda, Natalia Kouremeti, Julian Gröbner, Lionel Doppler, and Stelios Kazadzis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2061, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-2061, 2025
This preprint is open for discussion and under review for Atmospheric Measurement Techniques (AMT).
Short summary
Short summary
Several techniques retrieve of the aerosol size distribution. The Generalized Retrieval of Atmosphere and Surface Properties algorithm can retrieve aerosol size distribution parameters using only aerosol optical depth (AOD) as input that is continuously observed by sun photometers worldwide. In this study, we apply the algorithm to AOD measured by sun photometers and spectroradiometers to assess the performance and limitations of such retrievals and investigate the effect of the spectral range.
Anna Moustaka, Stelios Kazadzis, Emmanouil Proestakis, Anton Lopatin, Oleg Dubovik, Kleareti Tourpali, Christos Zerefos, Vassilis Amiridis, and Antonis Gkikas
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-888, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-888, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
North Africa and the Middle East are home to the world’s most active dust sources, but accurately monitoring airborne dust remains challenging. We refine satellite-based dust retrievals by improving the lidar ratio, a key parameter in aerosol observations, using data from multiple sensors. Our findings reveal regional variations in dust optical depth (DOD), leading to improved climatological assessments. These results enhance climate models and air quality studies.
Xinyuan Hou, Kyriakoula Papachristopoulou, and Stelios Kazadzis
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-891, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2025-891, 2025
Short summary
Short summary
We analyzed aerosol ground measurements and model based aerosol optical depth (AOD) forecasts to study variations in AOD at different global sites. We compared day-ahead AOD forecast methods and assessed their impact on forecasting clear-sky direct normal irradiance (DNI). While none of the methods accurately forecast DNI within 5 %, most sites showed a DNI deviation within 20 %, especially at sites with urban-industrial aerosols.
Ilias Fountoulakis, Kyriaki Papachristopoulou, Stelios Kazadzis, Gregor Hülsen, Julian Gröbner, Ioannis-Panagiotis Raptis, Dimitra Kouklaki, Akriti Masoom, Charalampos Kontoes, and Christos S. Zerefos
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2964, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-2964, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The UVIOS2 model has been evaluated at Davos, Switzerland during the UVCIII campaign. The accuracy in the modelled UV indices has been assessed for different combinations of model inputs. A good overall agreement between UVIOS2 and the world reference spectroradiometer QASUME was found (average ratio of ~1 between the modelled and measured UV index), although the variability in the ratio can be large under cloudy conditions.
Angelos Karanikolas, Natalia Kouremeti, Monica Campanelli, Victor Estellés, Masahiro Momoi, Gaurav Kumar, Stephan Nyeki, and Stelios Kazadzis
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 6085–6105, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6085-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-6085-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Different sun photometer networks use different instruments, post-processing algorithms and calibration protocols for aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrieval. Such differences can affect the homogeneity and comparability of their measurements. In this study, we assess the homogeneity between the sun photometer networks GAW-PFR and SKYNET, analysing common measurements during three campaigns between 2017–2021, and investigate the main cause of the differences.
Akriti Masoom, Stelios Kazadzis, Masimo Valeri, Ioannis-Panagiotis Raptis, Gabrielle Brizzi, Kyriakoula Papachristopoulou, Francesca Barnaba, Stefano Casadio, Axel Kreuter, and Fabrizio Niro
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 5525–5549, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5525-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5525-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosols, which have a wide impact on climate, radiative forcing, and human health, are widely represented by aerosol optical depth (AOD). AOD retrievals require Rayleigh scattering and atmospheric absorption (ozone, NO2, etc.) corrections. We analysed the NO2 (which has a high spatiotemporal variation) uncertainty impact on AOD retrievals using the synergy of co-located ground-based instruments with a long-term dataset at worldwide sites and found significant AOD over- or underestimations.
Monica Campanelli, Victor Estellés, Gaurav Kumar, Teruyuki Nakajima, Masahiro Momoi, Julian Gröbner, Stelios Kazadzis, Natalia Kouremeti, Angelos Karanikolas, Africa Barreto, Saulius Nevas, Kerstin Schwind, Philipp Schneider, Iiro Harju, Petri Kärhä, Henri Diémoz, Rei Kudo, Akihiro Uchiyama, Akihiro Yamazaki, Anna Maria Iannarelli, Gabriele Mevi, Annalisa Di Bernardino, and Stefano Casadio
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 5029–5050, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5029-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-5029-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
To retrieve columnar aerosol properties from sun photometers, some calibration factors are needed. The on-site calibrations, performed as frequently as possible to monitor changes in the machine conditions, allow operators to track and evaluate the calibration status on a continuous basis, reducing the data gaps incurred by the periodic shipments for performing centralized calibrations. The performance of the on-site calibration procedures was evaluated, providing very good results.
Lucas Ferreira Correa, Doris Folini, Boriana Chtirkova, and Martin Wild
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 8797–8819, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8797-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-8797-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
We investigated the causes of the decadal trends of solar radiation measured at 34 stations in Brazil in the first 2 decades of the 21st century. We observed strong negative trends in north and northeast Brazil associated with changes in both atmospheric absorption (anthropogenic) and cloud cover (natural). In other parts of the country no strong trends were observed as a result of competing effects. This provides a better understanding of the energy balance in the region.
Junli Yang, Weijun Quan, Li Zhang, Jianglin Hu, Qiying Chen, and Martin Wild
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-74, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2024-74, 2024
Revised manuscript not accepted
Short summary
Short summary
Due to the difficulties involved in the measurements of the Downward long-wave irradiance (DnLWI), the numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been developed to obtain the DnLWI indirectly. In this study, a long-term high time-resolution (1 min) observational dataset of the DnLWI in China was used to evaluate the radiation scheme in the CMA-MESO model over various underlying surfaces and climate zones.
Ilias Fountoulakis, Alexandra Tsekeri, Stelios Kazadzis, Vassilis Amiridis, Angelos Nersesian, Maria Tsichla, Emmanouil Proestakis, Antonis Gkikas, Kyriakoula Papachristopoulou, Vasileios Barlakas, Claudia Emde, and Bernhard Mayer
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 24, 4915–4948, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4915-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-4915-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
In our study we provide an assessment, through a sensitivity study, of the limitations of models to calculate the dust direct radiative effect (DRE) due to the underrepresentation of its size, refractive index (RI), and shape. Our results indicate the necessity of including more realistic sizes and RIs for dust particles in dust models, in order to derive better estimations of the dust direct radiative effects.
Kyriakoula Papachristopoulou, Ilias Fountoulakis, Alkiviadis F. Bais, Basil E. Psiloglou, Nikolaos Papadimitriou, Ioannis-Panagiotis Raptis, Andreas Kazantzidis, Charalampos Kontoes, Maria Hatzaki, and Stelios Kazadzis
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 1851–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1851-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-1851-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
The upgraded systems SENSE2 and NextSENSE2 focus on improving the quality of solar nowcasting and forecasting. SENSE2 provides real-time estimates of solar irradiance across a wide region every 15 min. NextSENSE2 offers short-term forecasts of irradiance up to 3 h ahead. Evaluation with actual data showed that the instantaneous comparison yields the most discrepancies due to the uncertainties of cloud-related information and satellite versus ground-based spatial representativeness limitations.
Weijun Quan, Zhenfa Wang, Lin Qiao, Xiangdong Zheng, Junli Jin, Yinruo Li, Xiaomei Yin, Zhiqiang Ma, and Martin Wild
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 16, 961–983, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-961-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-16-961-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Radiation components play important roles in various fields such as the Earth’s surface radiation budget, ecosystem productivity, and human health. In this study, a dataset consisting of quality-assured daily data of nine radiation components is presented based on the in situ measurements at the Shangdianzi regional GAW station in China during 2013–2022. The dataset can be applied in the validation of satellite products and numerical models and investigation of atmospheric radiation.
Antonio Fernando Almansa, África Barreto, Natalia Kouremeti, Ramiro González, Akriti Masoom, Carlos Toledano, Julian Gröbner, Rosa Delia García, Yenny González, Stelios Kazadzis, Stéphane Victori, Óscar Álvarez, Fabrice Maupin, Virgilio Carreño, Victoria Eugenia Cachorro, and Emilio Cuevas
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 17, 659–675, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-659-2024, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-17-659-2024, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
This paper applies sun photometer synergies to improve calibration transference between different sun photometers and also enhance their quality assurance and quality control. We have validated this technique using different instrumentation, the WMO-GAW and NASA-AERONET references, under different aerosol regimes using the standard Langley calibration method as a reference.
Óscar Alvárez, África Barreto, Omaira E. García, Frank Hase, Rosa D. García, Julian Gröbner, Sergio F. León-Luis, Eliezer Sepúlveda, Virgilio Carreño, Antonio Alcántara, Ramón Ramos, A. Fernando Almansa, Stelios Kazadzis, Noémie Taquet, Carlos Toledano, and Emilio Cuevas
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 4861–4884, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-4861-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-4861-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this work, we have extended the capabilities of a portable Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) instrument, which was originally designed to provide high-quality greenhouse gas monitoring within COCCON (COllaborative Carbon Column Observing Network). The extension allows the spectrometer to now also provide coincidentally column-integrated aerosol information. This addition of a reference instrument to a global network will be utilised to enhance our understanding of atmospheric chemistry.
Julian Gröbner, Natalia Kouremeti, Gregor Hülsen, Ralf Zuber, Mario Ribnitzky, Saulius Nevas, Peter Sperfeld, Kerstin Schwind, Philipp Schneider, Stelios Kazadzis, África Barreto, Tom Gardiner, Kavitha Mottungan, David Medland, and Marc Coleman
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 4667–4680, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-4667-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-4667-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Spectral solar irradiance measurements traceable to the International System of Units (SI) allow for intercomparability between instruments and for their validation according to metrological standards. Here we also validate and reduce the uncertainties of the top-of-atmosphere TSIS-1 Hybrid Solar Reference Spectrum (HSRS). The management of large networks, e.g. AERONET or GAW-PFR, will benefit from reducing logistical overhead, improving their resilience and achieving metrological traceability.
Vasiliki Daskalopoulou, Panagiotis I. Raptis, Alexandra Tsekeri, Vassilis Amiridis, Stelios Kazadzis, Zbigniew Ulanowski, Vassilis Charmandaris, Konstantinos Tassis, and William Martin
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 4529–4550, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-4529-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-4529-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Atmospheric dust particles may present a preferential alignment due to their shape on long range transport. Since dust is abundant and plays a key role to global climate, the elusive observation of orientation will be a game changer to existing measurement techniques and the representation of particles in climate models. We utilize a specifically designed instrument, SolPol, and target the Sun from the ground for large polarization values under dusty conditions, a clear sign of orientation.
Boyang Jiao, Yucheng Su, Qingxiang Li, Veronica Manara, and Martin Wild
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 4519–4535, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4519-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-4519-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper develops an observational integrated and homogenized global-terrestrial (except for Antarctica) SSRIH station. This is interpolated into a 5° × 5° SSRIH grid and reconstructed into a long-term (1955–2018) global land (except for Antarctica) 5° × 2.5° SSR anomaly dataset (SSRIH20CR) by an improved partial convolutional neural network deep-learning method. SSRIH20CR yields trends of −1.276 W m−2 per decade over the dimming period and 0.697 W m−2 per decade over the brightening period.
Akriti Masoom, Ilias Fountoulakis, Stelios Kazadzis, Ioannis-Panagiotis Raptis, Anna Kampouri, Basil E. Psiloglou, Dimitra Kouklaki, Kyriakoula Papachristopoulou, Eleni Marinou, Stavros Solomos, Anna Gialitaki, Dimitra Founda, Vasileios Salamalikis, Dimitris Kaskaoutis, Natalia Kouremeti, Nikolaos Mihalopoulos, Vassilis Amiridis, Andreas Kazantzidis, Alexandros Papayannis, Christos S. Zerefos, and Kostas Eleftheratos
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 23, 8487–8514, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8487-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-8487-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
We analyse the spatial and temporal aerosol spectral optical properties during the extreme wildfires of August 2021 in Greece and assess their effects on air quality and solar radiation quantities related to health, agriculture, and energy. Different aerosol conditions are identified (pure smoke, pure dust, dust–smoke together); the largest impact on solar radiation quantities is found for cases with mixed dust–smoke aerosols. Such situations are expected to occur more frequently in the future.
Theano Drosoglou, Ioannis-Panagiotis Raptis, Massimo Valeri, Stefano Casadio, Francesca Barnaba, Marcos Herreras-Giralda, Anton Lopatin, Oleg Dubovik, Gabriele Brizzi, Fabrizio Niro, Monica Campanelli, and Stelios Kazadzis
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 16, 2989–3014, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2989-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-16-2989-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Aerosol optical properties derived from sun photometers depend on the optical depth of trace gases absorbing solar radiation at specific spectral ranges. Various networks use satellite-based climatologies to account for this or neglect their effect. In this work, we evaluate the effect of NO2 absorption in aerosol retrievals from AERONET and SKYNET over two stations in Rome, Italy, with relatively high NO2 spatiotemporal variations, using NO2 data from the Pandora network and the TROPOMI sensor.
Qiuyan Wang, Hua Zhang, Su Yang, Qi Chen, Xixun Zhou, Bing Xie, Yuying Wang, Guangyu Shi, and Martin Wild
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15867–15886, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15867-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15867-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The present-day land energy balance over East Asia is estimated for the first time. Results indicate that high aerosol loadings, clouds, and the Tibet Plateau (TP) over East Asia play vital roles in the shortwave budgets, while the TP is responsible for the longwave budgets during this regional energy budget assessment. This study provides a perspective to understand fully how the potential factors influence the diversifying regional energy budget assessments.
Kyriakoula Papachristopoulou, Ioannis-Panagiotis Raptis, Antonis Gkikas, Ilias Fountoulakis, Akriti Masoom, and Stelios Kazadzis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 15703–15727, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15703-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-15703-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Megacities' air quality is determined by atmospheric aerosols. We focus on changes over the last two decades in the 81 largest cities, using satellite data. European and American cities have lower aerosol compared to African and Asian cities. For European, North American and East Asian cities, aerosols are decreasing over time, especially in China and the US. In the remaining cities, aerosol loads are increasing, particularly in India.
Angelos Karanikolas, Natalia Kouremeti, Julian Gröbner, Luca Egli, and Stelios Kazadzis
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 15, 5667–5680, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5667-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-15-5667-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The aim of this work is to investigate the limitations of calculating long-term trends of a parameter that quantifies the overall effect of atmospheric aerosols on the solar radiation. A main finding is that even instruments with good agreement between their observations can show significantly different linear trends. By calculating time-varying trends, the trend agreement is shown to improve. We also show that different methods of trend estimation can result in significant trend differences.
Johannes Quaas, Hailing Jia, Chris Smith, Anna Lea Albright, Wenche Aas, Nicolas Bellouin, Olivier Boucher, Marie Doutriaux-Boucher, Piers M. Forster, Daniel Grosvenor, Stuart Jenkins, Zbigniew Klimont, Norman G. Loeb, Xiaoyan Ma, Vaishali Naik, Fabien Paulot, Philip Stier, Martin Wild, Gunnar Myhre, and Michael Schulz
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 12221–12239, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-12221-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
Pollution particles cool climate and offset part of the global warming. However, they are washed out by rain and thus their effect responds quickly to changes in emissions. We show multiple datasets to demonstrate that aerosol emissions and their concentrations declined in many regions influenced by human emissions, as did the effects on clouds. Consequently, the cooling impact on the Earth energy budget became smaller. This change in trend implies a relative warming.
Antonis Gkikas, Emmanouil Proestakis, Vassilis Amiridis, Stelios Kazadzis, Enza Di Tomaso, Eleni Marinou, Nikos Hatzianastassiou, Jasper F. Kok, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 3553–3578, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3553-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-3553-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present a comprehensive climatological analysis of dust optical depth (DOD) relying on the MIDAS dataset. MIDAS provides columnar mid-visible (550 nm) DOD at fine spatial resolution (0.1° × 0.1°) over a 15-year period (2003–2017). In the current study, the analysis is performed at various spatial (from regional to global) and temporal (from months to years) scales. More specifically, focus is given to specific regions hosting the major dust sources as well as downwind areas of the planet.
Jan Wohland, Doris Folini, and Bryn Pickering
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1239–1251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1239-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1239-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Surface winds fluctuate. From around 1980 to 2010, surface onshore winds generally became weaker, and they have gained in strength since then. While these fluctuations are well known, we currently do not fully understand why they happen. To investigate the reasons, we use a large set of climate simulations with one model, a so-called large ensemble. We find that the observed long-term wind fluctuations occur naturally under current and future conditions and do not require a specific trigger.
Stavros-Andreas Logothetis, Vasileios Salamalikis, Antonis Gkikas, Stelios Kazadzis, Vassilis Amiridis, and Andreas Kazantzidis
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 16499–16529, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16499-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-16499-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This study investigates the temporal trends of dust optical depth (DOD; 550 nm) on global, regional and seasonal scales over a 15-year period (2003–2017) using the MIDAS (ModIs Dust AeroSol) dataset. The findings of this study revealed that the DOD was increased across the central Sahara and the Arabian Peninsula, with opposite trends over the eastern and western Sahara, the Thar and Gobi deserts, in the Bodélé Depression, and in the southern Mediterranean.
Panagiotis G. Kosmopoulos, Stelios Kazadzis, Alois W. Schmalwieser, Panagiotis I. Raptis, Kyriakoula Papachristopoulou, Ilias Fountoulakis, Akriti Masoom, Alkiviadis F. Bais, Julia Bilbao, Mario Blumthaler, Axel Kreuter, Anna Maria Siani, Kostas Eleftheratos, Chrysanthi Topaloglou, Julian Gröbner, Bjørn Johnsen, Tove M. Svendby, Jose Manuel Vilaplana, Lionel Doppler, Ann R. Webb, Marina Khazova, Hugo De Backer, Anu Heikkilä, Kaisa Lakkala, Janusz Jaroslawski, Charikleia Meleti, Henri Diémoz, Gregor Hülsen, Barbara Klotz, John Rimmer, and Charalampos Kontoes
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 5657–5699, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5657-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-5657-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Large-scale retrievals of the ultraviolet index (UVI) in real time by exploiting the modern Earth observation data and techniques are capable of forming operational early warning systems that raise awareness among citizens of the health implications of high UVI doses. In this direction a novel UVI operating system, the so-called UVIOS, was introduced for massive outputs, while its performance was tested against ground-based measurements revealing a dependence on the input quality and resolution.
Antti Arola, William Wandji Nyamsi, Antti Lipponen, Stelios Kazadzis, Nickolay A. Krotkov, and Johanna Tamminen
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 4947–4957, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4947-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-4947-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Methods to estimate surface UV radiation from satellite measurements offer the only means to obtain global coverage, and the development of satellite-based UV algorithms has been ongoing since the early 1990s. One of the main challenges in this development has been how to account for the overall effect of absorption by atmospheric aerosols. One such method was suggested roughly a decade ago, and in this study we propose further improvements for this kind of approach.
Marcia Akemi Yamasoe, Nilton Manuel Évora Rosário, Samantha Novaes Santos Martins Almeida, and Martin Wild
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 6593–6603, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6593-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-21-6593-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Spatio-temporal disparity to assess global dimming and brightening phenomena has been a critical topic. For instance, few studies addressed surface solar irradiation (SSR) long-term trend in South America. In this study, SSR, sunshine duration (SD) and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) are analysed for São Paulo, Brazil. We found a dimming phase, identified by SSR, SD and DTR, extending till 1983. Then, while SSR is still declining, consistent with cloud increasing, SD and DTR are increasing.
Myrto Gratsea, Tim Bösch, Panagiotis Kokkalis, Andreas Richter, Mihalis Vrekoussis, Stelios Kazadzis, Alexandra Tsekeri, Alexandros Papayannis, Maria Mylonaki, Vassilis Amiridis, Nikos Mihalopoulos, and Evangelos Gerasopoulos
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 749–767, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-749-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-749-2021, 2021
Antonis Gkikas, Emmanouil Proestakis, Vassilis Amiridis, Stelios Kazadzis, Enza Di Tomaso, Alexandra Tsekeri, Eleni Marinou, Nikos Hatzianastassiou, and Carlos Pérez García-Pando
Atmos. Meas. Tech., 14, 309–334, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-309-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-14-309-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present the development of the MIDAS (ModIs Dust AeroSol) data set, providing daily dust optical depth (DOD; 550 nm) at a global scale and fine spatial resolution (0.1° x 0.1°) over a 15-year period (2003–2017). It has been developed via the synergy of MODIS-Aqua and MERRA-2 data, while CALIOP and AERONET retrievals are used for its assessment. MIDAS upgrades existing dust observational capabilities, and it is suitable for dust climatological studies, model evaluation, and data assimilation.
Kine Onsum Moseid, Michael Schulz, Trude Storelvmo, Ingeborg Rian Julsrud, Dirk Olivié, Pierre Nabat, Martin Wild, Jason N. S. Cole, Toshihiko Takemura, Naga Oshima, Susanne E. Bauer, and Guillaume Gastineau
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 16023–16040, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-16023-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-16023-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we compare solar radiation at the surface from observations and Earth system models from 1961 to 2014. We find that the models do not reproduce the so-called
global dimmingas found in observations. Only model experiments with anthropogenic aerosol emissions display any dimming at all. The discrepancies between observations and models are largest in China, which we suggest is in part due to erroneous aerosol precursor emission inventories in the emission dataset used for CMIP6.
Cited articles
Bartok, B., Wild, M., Folini, D., Lüthi, D., Kotlarski,
S., Schär, C., Vautard, R., Jerez, S., and Imecs, Z.: Projected changes
in surface solar radiation in CMIP5 global climate models and in EURO-CORDEX
regional climate models for Europe, Clim. Dyn., 49, 2665–2683, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3471-2, 2017.
Bloomfield, H. C., Gonzalez, P. L. M., Lundquist, J. K., Stoop, L. P.,
Browell, J., Dargaville, R., De Felice, M., Gruber, K., Hilbers, A., Kies,
A., Panteli, M., Thornton, H. E., Wohland, J., Zeyringer, M., and Brayshaw,
D. J.: The Importance of Weather and Climate to Energy Systems: A Workshop
on Next Generation Challenges in Energy–Climate Modeling, B. Am. Meteorol.
Soc., 102, E159–E167, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0256.1, 2021.
Boé, J., Somot, S., Corre, L., and Nabat, P.: Large discrepancies in
summer climate change over Europe as projected by global and regional
climate models: causes and consequences, Clim. Dyn., 54, 2981–3002, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05153-1, 2020.
Craig, M. T., Losada Carreño, I., Rossol, M., Hodge, B.-M., and
Brancucci, C.: Effects on power system operations of potential changes in
wind and solar generation potential under climate change, Environ. Res.
Lett., 14, 34014, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf93b, 2019.
Creutzig, F., Agoston, P., Goldschmidt, J. C., Luderer, G., Nemet, G.,
and Pietzcker, R. C.: The underestimated potential of solar energy to mitigate
climate change, Nat. Energy, 2, 17140, https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2017.140, 2017.
Crook, J. A., Jones, L. A., Forster, P. M., and Crook, R.: Climate change
impacts on future photovoltaic and concentrated solar power energy output,
Energ. Environ. Sci., 4, 3101–3109, https://doi.org/10.1039/c1ee01495a, 2011.
Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF): ESGF Node at DOE/LLNL, Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) [data set], available at: https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/search/cmip6/, last access: 22 October 2021.
EU: Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the
European Council, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee
and the Committee of the Regions (COM(2019) 640 final), available at:
https://eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:b828d165-1c22-11ea-8c1f-01aa75ed71a1.0002.02/DOC_1&format=PDF (last access: 23 June 2021), 2019.
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016, 2016.
Gaetani, M., Huld, T., Vignati, E., Monforti-Ferrario, F., Dosio, A., and
Raes, F.: The near future availability of photovoltaic energy in Europe and
Africa in climate-aerosol modeling experiments, Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev.,
38, 706–716, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.07.041, 2014.
Gidden, M. J., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Fujimori, S., Luderer, G., Kriegler, E., van Vuuren, D. P., van den Berg, M., Feng, L., Klein, D., Calvin, K., Doelman, J. C., Frank, S., Fricko, O., Harmsen, M., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Hilaire, J., Hoesly, R., Horing, J., Popp, A., Stehfest, E., and Takahashi, K.: Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century, Geosci. Model Dev., 12, 1443–1475, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-1443-2019, 2019.
Grams, C.M., R. Beerli, S. Pfenninger, I. Staffell, and H. Wernli: Balancing
Europe's wind power output through spatial deployment informed by weather
regimes, Nat. Clim. Change, 7, 557–562, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3338, 2017.
Gutiérrez, C., Somot, S., Nabat, P., Mallet, M., Corre, L., van
Meijgaard, E., Perpiñán, O., and Gaertner, M. Á.: Future
evolution of surface solar radiation and photovoltaic potential in Europe:
investigating the role of aerosols, Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 34035, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab6666, 2020.
Heide, D., von Bremen, L., Greiner, M., Hoffmann, C., Speckmann, M., and
Bofinger, S.: Seasonal optimal mix of wind and solar power in a future,
highly renewable Europe, Renew. Energ., 35, 2483–2489, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2010.03.012, 2010.
IPCC: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M.,
Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M.,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA): Future of Solar Photovoltaic: Deployment, investment, technology,
grid integration and socio-economic aspects (A Global Energy Transformation:
paper), International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, 2019.
IRENA: Trends in Renewable Energy, available at:http://resourceirena.irena.org/gateway/dashboard/?topic=4&subTopic=16 (last access: 24 March 2021), 2020.
Jacob, D., Teichmann, C., Sobolowski, S., Katragkou, E., Anders, I., Belda,
M., Benestad, R., Boberg, F., Buonomo, E., Cardoso, R. M., Casanueva, A.,
Christensen, O. B., Christensen, J. H., Coppola, E., Cruz, L. de, Davin, E.
L., Dobler, A., Domínguez, M., Fealy, R., Fernandez, J., Gaertner, M.
A., García-Díez, M., Giorgi, F., Gobiet, A., Goergen, K.,
Gómez-Navarro, J. J., Alemán, J. J. G., Gutiérrez, C.,
Gutiérrez, J. M., Güttler, I., Haensler, A., Halenka, T., Jerez, S.,
Jiménez-Guerrero, P., Jones, R. G., Keuler, K., Kjellström, E.,
Knist, S., Kotlarski, S., Maraun, D., van Meijgaard, E., Mercogliano, P.,
Montávez, J. P., Navarra, A., Nikulin, G., Noblet-Ducoudré, N. de,
Panitz, H.-J., Pfeifer, S., Piazza, M., Pichelli, E., Pietikäinen,
J.-P., Prein, A. F., Preuschmann, S., Rechid, D., Rockel, B., Romera, R.,
Sánchez, E., Sieck, K., Soares, P. M. M., Somot, S., Srnec, L.,
Sørland, S. L., Termonia, P., Truhetz, H., Vautard, R., Warrach-Sagi, K.,
and Wulfmeyer, V.: Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives
from the EURO-CORDEX community, Reg. Environ. Change, 20, 51, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01606-9, 2020.
Jacobson, M. Z. and Jadhav, V.: World estimates of PV optimal tilt angles
and ratios of sunlight incident upon tilted and tracked PV panels relative
to horizontal panels, Sol. Energy, 169, 55–66, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2018.04.030, 2018.
Jerez, S., Trigo, R. M., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Pozo-Vázquez, D.,
Lorente-Plazas, R., Lorenzo-Lacruz, J., Santos-Alamillos, F., and
Montávez, J. P.: The Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on
Renewable Energy Resources in Southwestern Europe, J. Appl. Meteor.
Climatol., 52, 2204–2225. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0257.1, 2013.
Jerez, S., Tobin, I., Vautard, R., Montávez, J. P., López-Romero, J.
M., Thais, F., Bartok, B., Christensen, O. B., Colette, A., Déqué,
M., Nikulin, G., Kotlarski, S., van Meijgaard, E., Teichmann, C., and Wild,
M.: The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe,
Nat. Commun., 6, 10014, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms10014, 2015.
Jerez, S., Palacios-Peña, L., Gutiérrez, C., Jiménez-Guerrero, P., López-Romero, J. M., Pravia-Sarabia, E., and Montávez, J. P.: Sensitivity of surface solar radiation to aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions over Europe in WRFv3.6.1 climatic runs with fully interactive aerosols, Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 1533–1551, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1533-2021, 2021.
Kittner, N., Lill, F., and Kammen, D. M.: Energy storage deployment and
innovation for the clean energy transition, Nat. Energy, 2, 17125, https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2017.125, 2017.
Miglietta, M. M., Huld, T., and Monforti-Ferrario, F.: Local Complementarity
of Wind and Solar Energy Resources over Europe: An Assessment Study from a
Meteorological Perspective, J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 56, 217–234, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0031.1, 2017.
Müller, J., Folini, D., Wild, M., and Pfenninger, S.: CMIP-5 models
project photovoltaics are a no-regrets investment in Europe irrespective of
climate change, Energy, 171, 135–148, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.12.139,
2019.
O'Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-F., Lowe, J., Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., and Sanderson, B. M.: The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 3461–3482, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016, 2016.
Panagea, I. S., Tsanis, I. K., Koutroulis, A. G., and Grillakis, M. G.:
Climate Change Impact on Photovoltaic Energy Output: The Case of Greece,
Adv. Meteorol., 2014, 1–11, https://doi.org/10.1155/2014/264506, 2014.
Pfenninger, S. and Staffell, I.: Long-term patterns of European PV output
using 30 years of validated hourly reanalysis and satellite data, Energy,
114, 1251–1265, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2016.08.060, 2016.
Ravestein, P., van der Schrier, G., Haarsma, R., Scheele, R., and van den
Broek, M.: Vulnerability of European intermittent renewable energy supply to
climate change and climate variability, Renew. Sust. Energ. Rev., 97,
497–508, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.08.057, 2018.
Ridley, B., Boland, J., and Lauret, P.: Modelling of diffuse solar fraction
with multiple predictors, Renew. Energ., 35, 478–483, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2009.07.018, 2010.
Rodríguez, R. A., Becker, S., Andresen, G. B., Heide, D., and Greiner, M.:
Transmission needs across a fully renewable European power system, Renew.
Energ., 63, 467–476, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2013.10.005, 2014.
Sanchez-Lorenzo, A., Calbó, J., Brunetti, M., and Deser, C.:
Dimming/brightening over the Iberian Peninsula: Trends in sunshine duration
and cloud cover and their relations with atmospheric circulation, J.
Geophys. Res., 114, D00D09, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011394, 2009.
Taylor, K. E., Stouffer, R. J., and Meehl, G. A.: An Overview of Cmip5 and the
Experiment Design, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 93, 485–498, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1, 2012.
Tröndle, T., Pfenninger, S., and Lilliestam, J.: Home-made or imported: On
the possibility for renewable electricity autarky on all scales in Europe, Energy Strateg. Rev., 26, 100388, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2019.100388, 2019.
UNFCCC: Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Decision1/CP.21 of
FCCC/CP/2015/10/Add.1, available at:
http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/10a01.pdf (last access: 20 October 2021), 2015.
van der Wiel, K., Bloomfield, H. C., Lee, R. W., Stoop, L. P., Blackport, R.,
Screen, J. A., and Selten, F. M.: The influence of weather regimes on European
renewable energy production and demand, Environ. Res. Lett., 14, 094010,
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab38d3, 2019.
Wild, M., Folini, D., Henschel, F., Fischer, N., and Müller, B.:
Projections of long-term changes in solar radiation based on CMIP5 climate
models and their influence on energy yields of photovoltaic systems, Sol.
Energy, 116, 12–24, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.solener.2015.03.039, 2015.
Wohland, J., Reyers, M., Weber, J., and Witthaut, D.: More homogeneous wind conditions under strong climate change decrease the potential for inter-state balancing of electricity in Europe, Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 1047–1060, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-1047-2017, 2017.
Short summary
Solar photovoltaics (PV) matters for the carbon neutrality goal. We use climate scenarios to quantify climate risk for PV in Europe and find higher PV potential. The seasonal cycle of PV generation changes in most places. We find an increase in the spatial correlations of daily PV production, implying that PV power balancing through redistribution will be more difficult in the future. Thus, changes in the spatiotemporal structure of PV generation should be included in power system design.
Solar photovoltaics (PV) matters for the carbon neutrality goal. We use climate scenarios to...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint