Climate change in the High Mountain Asia in CMIP6

Lalande, Mickaël; Ménégoz, Martin; Krinner, Gerhard; Naegeli, Kathrin; Wunderle, Stefan

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1061-2021

Articles | Volume 12, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1061-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1061-2021

© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 12, issue 4

Research article

|

02 Nov 2021

Research article |

| 02 Nov 2021

Climate change in the High Mountain Asia in CMIP6

Mickaël Lalande, Martin Ménégoz, Gerhard Krinner, Kathrin Naegeli, and Stefan Wunderle

Data sets

CRU TS4.00: Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) version 4.00 of high-resolution gridded data of month-by-month variation in climate (Jan. 1901-Dec. 2015) University of East Anglia Climatic Research Unit, I. C. Harris, and P. D. Jones https://doi.org/10.5285/edf8febfdaad48abb2cbaf7d7e846a86

ESA Snow Climate Change Initiative (Snow_cci): Daily global Snow Cover Fraction - snow on ground (SCFG) from AVHRR (1982-2019), version1.0 K. Naegeli, C. Neuhaus, A.-B. Salberg, G. Schwaizer, A. Wiesmann, S. Wunderle, and T. Nagler https://doi.org/10.5285/5484dc1392bc43c1ace73ba38a22ac56

Download APHRODITE's Water Resources http://aphrodite.st.hirosaki-u.ac.jp/download/

GMTED2010 elevation data at different resolutions TEMIS https://www.temis.nl/data/gmted2010/index.php

GLDAS Vegetation Class/Mask NASA https://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/gldas/vegetation-class-mask

ERA-Interim ECMWF https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-interim

ERA5 hourly data on single levels from 1979 to present H. Hersbach, B. Bell, P. Berrisford, G. Biavati, A. Horányi, J. Muñoz Sabater, J. Nicolas, C. Peubey, R. Radu, I. Rozum, D. Schepers, A. Simmons, C. Soci, D. Dee, and J.-N. Thépaut https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.adbb2d47

Model code and software

JiaweiZhuang/xESMF: v0.3.0 Adding ESMF.LocStream capabilities (v0.3.0) J. Zhuang, R. Dussin, A. Jüling, and S. Rasp https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3700105

mickaellalande/CMIP6_HMA_paper: First release for production in ESD (v1.0) M. Lalande https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5500285

Taylor diagram for python/matplotlib (2018-12-06) Y. Copin https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5548061

Short summary

Climate change over High Mountain Asia is investigated with CMIP6 climate models. A general cold bias is found in this area, often related to a snow cover overestimation in the models. Ensemble experiments generally encompass the past observed trends, suggesting that even biased models can reproduce the trends. Depending on the future scenario, a warming from 1.9 to 6.5 °C, associated with a snow cover decrease and precipitation increase, is expected at the end of the 21st century.