Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals

Geiges, Andreas; Nauels, Alexander; Parra, Paola Yanguas; Andrijevic, Marina; Hare, William; Pfleiderer, Peter; Schaeffer, Michiel; Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020

Articles | Volume 11, issue 3

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 11, issue 3

Research article

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03 Aug 2020

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 03 Aug 2020

Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals

Andreas Geiges, Alexander Nauels, Paola Yanguas Parra, Marina Andrijevic, William Hare, Peter Pfleiderer, Michiel Schaeffer, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

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https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020-supplement

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Supplementary material: Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agree- 65 ment goals A. Geiges, A. Nauels, M. Andrijevic, and P. Pfleiderer https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3931844

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Current global mitigation ambition in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs) up to 2030 is insufficient to achieve the 1.5 °C long-term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, we address the question of what level of collective ambition is pivotal regarding the Paris Agreement goals. We provide estimates for global mean temperature increase by 2100 for different incremental NDC update scenarios and illustrate climate impacts under those scenarios.