Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
Research article
 | Highlight paper
03 Aug 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 03 Aug 2020

Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals

Andreas Geiges, Alexander Nauels, Paola Yanguas Parra, Marina Andrijevic, William Hare, Peter Pfleiderer, Michiel Schaeffer, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner


Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (18 Mar 2020) by Ning Zeng
AR by Andreas Geiges on behalf of the Authors (25 Mar 2020)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (14 Apr 2020) by Ning Zeng
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (01 May 2020)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (01 May 2020) by Ning Zeng
AR by Anna Wenzel on behalf of the Authors (19 May 2020)  Author's response
ED: Publish as is (31 May 2020) by Ning Zeng

Post-review adjustments

AA: Author's adjustment | EA: Editor approval
AA by Andreas Geiges on behalf of the Authors (14 Jul 2020)   Author's adjustment   Manuscript
EA: Adjustments approved (17 Jul 2020) by Ning Zeng
Short summary
Current global mitigation ambition in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs) up to 2030 is insufficient to achieve the 1.5 °C long-term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, we address the question of what level of collective ambition is pivotal regarding the Paris Agreement goals. We provide estimates for global mean temperature increase by 2100 for different incremental NDC update scenarios and illustrate climate impacts under those scenarios.
Final-revised paper