Articles | Volume 11, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-697-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
03 Aug 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 03 Aug 2020
| 03 Aug 2020
Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals
Andreas Geiges
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate Analytics, 10961 Berlin, Germany
Alexander Nauels
Climate Analytics, 10961 Berlin, Germany
Australian–German Climate and Energy College, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
Paola Yanguas Parra
Climate Analytics, 10961 Berlin, Germany
Marina Andrijevic
Climate Analytics, 10961 Berlin, Germany
IRI THESys, Humboldt University, 10117 Berlin, Germany
William Hare
Climate Analytics, 10961 Berlin, Germany
Peter Pfleiderer
Climate Analytics, 10961 Berlin, Germany
Australian–German Climate and Energy College, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Michiel Schaeffer
Climate Analytics, 10961 Berlin, Germany
Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University and Research Centre, 6700 AA Wageningen, the Netherlands
Carl-Friedrich Schleussner
Climate Analytics, 10961 Berlin, Germany
Australian–German Climate and Energy College, University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
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Latest update: 26 Jul 2024
Short summary
Current global mitigation ambition in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs) up to 2030 is insufficient to achieve the 1.5 °C long-term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, we address the question of what level of collective ambition is pivotal regarding the Paris Agreement goals. We provide estimates for global mean temperature increase by 2100 for different incremental NDC update scenarios and illustrate climate impacts under those scenarios.
Current global mitigation ambition in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs) up to 2030 is...
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