Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-469-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 May 2020
Research article |
| 26 May 2020
| 26 May 2020
Long-term variance of heavy precipitation across central Europe using a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Department Troposphere Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany
Lisa-Ann Kautz
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Department Troposphere Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany
Hendrik Feldmann
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Department Troposphere Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany
Joaquim G. Pinto
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Department Troposphere Research (IMK-TRO), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Hermann-von-Helmholtz-Platz 1, 76344 Eggenstein-Leopoldshafen, Germany
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- Spatio-temporal changes in daily extreme precipitation for the Lancang–Mekong River Basin Q. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05569-4
- Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area A. Caldas-Alvarez et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022
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- Diagnosis of GCM-RCM-driven rainfall patterns under changing climate through the robust selection of multi-model ensemble and sub-ensembles S. Gaur et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03475-z
- Recurrence of Drought Events Over Iberia. Part II: Future Changes Using Regional Climate Projections J. Moemken et al. https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.52
- Predicting Changes in Population Exposure to Precipitation Extremes over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration with Regional Climate Model RegCM4 on a Convection-Permitting Scale P. Qin et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511923
- Evaluation of Three Gridded Precipitation Products to Quantify Water Inputs over Complex Mountainous Terrain of Western China L. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13193795
- Large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble N. Maher et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-401-2021
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- Attributing heavy rainfall event in Berchtesgadener Land to recent climate change – Further rainfall intensification projected for the future B. Poschlod https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100492
- A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 1: Event description and analysis S. Mohr et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023
- Local and seasonal climate change and its influence on the hydrological cycle in a mountainous forested catchment L. Strohmenger et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127914
- Accessing Insurance Flood Losses Using a Catastrophe Model and Climate Change Scenarios L. Palán et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10050067
- A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 2: Historical context and relation to climate change P. Ludwig et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023
- Drift Correction and Sub‐Ensemble Predictive Skill Evaluation of the Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble With Application to Regional Studies J. Rosa‐Cánovas et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039709
- A Comparison between One-Step and Two-Step Nesting Strategy in the Dynamical Downscaling of Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM at 2.2 km Driven by ERA5 Reanalysis M. Raffa et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12020260
- Evaluation and projections of extreme precipitation using a spatial extremes framework L. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8038
- Assessing the impact of climate change on high return levels of peak flows in Bavaria applying the CRCM5 large ensemble F. Willkofer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024
22 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Large Ensemble Simulations of Climate Models for Climate Change Research: A Review P. Lin et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-024-4012-2
- Spatio-temporal changes in daily extreme precipitation for the Lancang–Mekong River Basin Q. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05569-4
- Meteorological, impact and climate perspectives of the 29 June 2017 heavy precipitation event in the Berlin metropolitan area A. Caldas-Alvarez et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3701-2022
- Variability of extreme precipitation in West Antarctica and its response to the Amundsen Sea Low changes L. Pysarenko et al. https://doi.org/10.33275/1727-7485.2.2023.716
- Atmospheric blocking and weather extremes over the Euro-Atlantic sector – a review L. Kautz et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-3-305-2022
- Recurrence of Drought Events Over Iberia. Part I: Methodology and Application for Present Climate Conditions J. Moemken & J. Pinto https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.50
- Natural Disasters, Principled Humanitarianism, and the Prospects for a New Solidarism in International Solidarity I. Ruacan https://doi.org/10.1177/03043754251319943
- Diagnosis of GCM-RCM-driven rainfall patterns under changing climate through the robust selection of multi-model ensemble and sub-ensembles S. Gaur et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-022-03475-z
- Recurrence of Drought Events Over Iberia. Part II: Future Changes Using Regional Climate Projections J. Moemken et al. https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.52
- Predicting Changes in Population Exposure to Precipitation Extremes over Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Urban Agglomeration with Regional Climate Model RegCM4 on a Convection-Permitting Scale P. Qin et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511923
- Evaluation of Three Gridded Precipitation Products to Quantify Water Inputs over Complex Mountainous Terrain of Western China L. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13193795
- Large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble N. Maher et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-401-2021
- Adaptation and application of the large LAERTES-EU regional climate model ensemble for modeling hydrological extremes: a pilot study for the Rhine basin F. Ehmele et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022
- Attributing heavy rainfall event in Berchtesgadener Land to recent climate change – Further rainfall intensification projected for the future B. Poschlod https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100492
- A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 1: Event description and analysis S. Mohr et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-525-2023
- Local and seasonal climate change and its influence on the hydrological cycle in a mountainous forested catchment L. Strohmenger et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.127914
- Accessing Insurance Flood Losses Using a Catastrophe Model and Climate Change Scenarios L. Palán et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10050067
- A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 2: Historical context and relation to climate change P. Ludwig et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023
- Drift Correction and Sub‐Ensemble Predictive Skill Evaluation of the Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble With Application to Regional Studies J. Rosa‐Cánovas et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039709
- A Comparison between One-Step and Two-Step Nesting Strategy in the Dynamical Downscaling of Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM at 2.2 km Driven by ERA5 Reanalysis M. Raffa et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12020260
- Evaluation and projections of extreme precipitation using a spatial extremes framework L. Yang et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8038
- Assessing the impact of climate change on high return levels of peak flows in Bavaria applying the CRCM5 large ensemble F. Willkofer et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-28-2969-2024
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 01 Jun 2026
Short summary
This study presents a large novel data set of climate model simulations for central Europe covering the years 1900–2028 at a 25 km resolution. The focus is on intensive areal precipitation values. The data set is validated against observations using different statistical approaches. The results reveal an adequate quality in a statistical sense as well as some long-term variability with phases of increased and decreased heavy precipitation. The predictions of the near future show continuity.
This study presents a large novel data set of climate model simulations for central Europe...
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