Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 May 2020
Research article |
| 15 May 2020
| 15 May 2020
Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Niño events occur
National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba,
Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, 5-1-5
Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8564, Japan
Ryuichi Hirata
National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba,
Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
Tomoko Hasegawa
College of Science and Engineering, Ritsumeikan University, 1-1-1
Noji-higashi, Kusatsu, Shiga 525-8577, Japan
Shinichiro Fujimori
Department of Environmental Engineering, Graduate School of Engineering,
Kyoto University, Kyoto 615-8540, Japan
Noriko N. Ishizaki
National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba,
Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
Satoru Chatani
National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba,
Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
Masahiro Watanabe
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, 5-1-5
Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8564, Japan
Daniel Mitchell
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University
Road, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK
Y. T. Eunice Lo
School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, University
Road, Bristol BS8 1SS, UK
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- Large ensemble climate model simulations: introduction, overview, and future prospects for utilising multiple types of large ensemble N. Maher et al. 10.5194/esd-12-401-2021
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- Environmental variable importance for under-five mortality in Malaysia: A random forest approach V. Phung et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.157312
- Increasing population exposure to global warm-season concurrent dry and hot extremes under different warming levels W. Liu et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac188f
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- MIROC6 Large Ensemble (MIROC6-LE): experimental design and initial analyses H. Shiogama et al. 10.5194/esd-14-1107-2023
- Response of an Invasive Plant Species (Cynanchum acutum L.) to Changing Climate Conditions and Its Impact on Agricultural Landscapes B. Ar et al. 10.3390/land11091438
- Estimation of fire-induced carbon emissions from Equatorial Asia in 2015 using in situ aircraft and ship observations Y. Niwa et al. 10.5194/acp-21-9455-2021
- Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regimes in Bavaria B. Poschlod et al. 10.3390/w12061599
- Impact of solar geoengineering on wildfires in the 21st century in CESM2/WACCM6 W. Tang et al. 10.5194/acp-23-5467-2023
Latest update: 29 May 2025
Short summary
Based on climate simulations, we suggested that historical warming increased chances of drought exceeding the severe 2015 event in equatorial Asia due to El Niño. The fire and fire emissions of CO2/PM2.5 will largely increase at 1.5 and 2 °C warming. If global warming reaches 3 °C, as is expected from the current mitigation policies, chances of fire and CO2/PM2.5 emissions exceeding the 2015 event become approximately 100 %. Future climate policy has to consider these climate change effects.
Based on climate simulations, we suggested that historical warming increased chances of drought...
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