Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO<sub>2</sub> and PM<sub>2.5</sub> in equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Niño events occur

Shiogama, Hideo; Hirata, Ryuichi; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Ishizaki, Noriko N.; Chatani, Satoru; Watanabe, Masahiro; Mitchell, Daniel; Lo, Y. T. Eunice

doi:10.5194/esd-11-435-2020

Articles | Volume 11, issue 2

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations: Exploring Natural...

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 11, issue 2

Research article

|

15 May 2020

Research article |

| 15 May 2020

Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO₂ and PM_2.5 in equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Niño events occur

Hideo Shiogama, Ryuichi Hirata, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Noriko N. Ishizaki, Satoru Chatani, Masahiro Watanabe, Daniel Mitchell, and Y. T. Eunice Lo

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PDF: 998
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Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Aug 2019	131	23	2	156
Sep 2019	61	16	1	78
Oct 2019	40	9	0	49
Nov 2019	21	3	0	24
Dec 2019	23	7	2	32
Jan 2020	27	4	0	31
Feb 2020	13	6	0	19
Mar 2020	7	6	0	13
Apr 2020	35	13	0	48
May 2020	251	45	5	301
Jun 2020	88	42	1	131
Jul 2020	256	55	11	322
Aug 2020	127	14	2	143
Sep 2020	76	10	1	87
Oct 2020	70	15	3	88
Nov 2020	136	9	1	146
Dec 2020	156	10	0	166
Jan 2021	45	12	0	57
Feb 2021	57	8	0	65
Mar 2021	56	12	1	69
Apr 2021	44	10	2	56
May 2021	26	12	3	41
Jun 2021	33	14	0	47
Jul 2021	34	16	1	51
Aug 2021	29	10	3	42
Sep 2021	41	14	1	56
Oct 2021	43	43	0	86
Nov 2021	43	39	2	84
Dec 2021	49	18	5	72
Jan 2022	34	15	0	49
Feb 2022	18	8	2	28
Mar 2022	15	12	0	27
Apr 2022	31	6	1	38
May 2022	21	12	1	34
Jun 2022	22	7	0	29
Jul 2022	30	3	0	33
Aug 2022	72	9	0	81
Sep 2022	36	21	0	57
Oct 2022	38	4	0	42
Nov 2022	19	11	0	30
Dec 2022	20	10	1	31
Jan 2023	23	11	1	35
Feb 2023	15	4	0	19
Mar 2023	21	9	2	32
Apr 2023	25	11	0	36
May 2023	26	11	0	37
Jun 2023	24	12	2	38
Jul 2023	20	8	0	28
Aug 2023	30	9	1	40
Sep 2023	23	9	1	33
Oct 2023	36	14	2	52
Nov 2023	25	5	0	30
Dec 2023	30	11	0	41
Jan 2024	37	9	0	46
Feb 2024	22	6	1	29
Mar 2024	35	15	3	53
Apr 2024	34	10	8	52
May 2024	43	13	2	58
Jun 2024	102	11	3	116
Jul 2024	66	9	6	81
Aug 2024	70	9	9	88
Sep 2024	45	9	6	60
Oct 2024	53	5	1	59
Nov 2024	45	4	2	51
Dec 2024	80	10	3	93
Jan 2025	98	10	3	111
Feb 2025	57	9	0	66
Mar 2025	21	14	0	35
Apr 2025	65	16	0	81
May 2025	47	13	0	60
Jun 2025	65	20	3	88
Jul 2025	34	15	4	53
Aug 2025	61	21	5	87
Sep 2025	81	16	1	98
Oct 2025	38	24	2	64
Nov 2025	9	3	0	12

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 08 Aug 2019)

Month	HTML	PDF	XML	Total
Aug 2019	131	23	2	156
Sep 2019	61	16	1	78
Oct 2019	40	9	0	49
Nov 2019	21	3	0	24
Dec 2019	23	7	2	32
Jan 2020	27	4	0	31
Feb 2020	13	6	0	19
Mar 2020	7	6	0	13
Apr 2020	35	13	0	48
May 2020	251	45	5	301
Jun 2020	88	42	1	131
Jul 2020	256	55	11	322
Aug 2020	127	14	2	143
Sep 2020	76	10	1	87
Oct 2020	70	15	3	88
Nov 2020	136	9	1	146
Dec 2020	156	10	0	166
Jan 2021	45	12	0	57
Feb 2021	57	8	0	65
Mar 2021	56	12	1	69
Apr 2021	44	10	2	56
May 2021	26	12	3	41
Jun 2021	33	14	0	47
Jul 2021	34	16	1	51
Aug 2021	29	10	3	42
Sep 2021	41	14	1	56
Oct 2021	43	43	0	86
Nov 2021	43	39	2	84
Dec 2021	49	18	5	72
Jan 2022	34	15	0	49
Feb 2022	18	8	2	28
Mar 2022	15	12	0	27
Apr 2022	31	6	1	38
May 2022	21	12	1	34
Jun 2022	22	7	0	29
Jul 2022	30	3	0	33
Aug 2022	72	9	0	81
Sep 2022	36	21	0	57
Oct 2022	38	4	0	42
Nov 2022	19	11	0	30
Dec 2022	20	10	1	31
Jan 2023	23	11	1	35
Feb 2023	15	4	0	19
Mar 2023	21	9	2	32
Apr 2023	25	11	0	36
May 2023	26	11	0	37
Jun 2023	24	12	2	38
Jul 2023	20	8	0	28
Aug 2023	30	9	1	40
Sep 2023	23	9	1	33
Oct 2023	36	14	2	52
Nov 2023	25	5	0	30
Dec 2023	30	11	0	41
Jan 2024	37	9	0	46
Feb 2024	22	6	1	29
Mar 2024	35	15	3	53
Apr 2024	34	10	8	52
May 2024	43	13	2	58
Jun 2024	102	11	3	116
Jul 2024	66	9	6	81
Aug 2024	70	9	9	88
Sep 2024	45	9	6	60
Oct 2024	53	5	1	59
Nov 2024	45	4	2	51
Dec 2024	80	10	3	93
Jan 2025	98	10	3	111
Feb 2025	57	9	0	66
Mar 2025	21	14	0	35
Apr 2025	65	16	0	81
May 2025	47	13	0	60
Jun 2025	65	20	3	88
Jul 2025	34	15	4	53
Aug 2025	61	21	5	87
Sep 2025	81	16	1	98
Oct 2025	38	24	2	64
Nov 2025	9	3	0	12

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Short summary

Based on climate simulations, we suggested that historical warming increased chances of drought exceeding the severe 2015 event in equatorial Asia due to El Niño. The fire and fire emissions of CO₂/PM_2.5 will largely increase at 1.5 and 2 °C warming. If global warming reaches 3 °C, as is expected from the current mitigation policies, chances of fire and CO₂/PM_2.5 emissions exceeding the 2015 event become approximately 100 %. Future climate policy has to consider these climate change effects.


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Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Niño events occur

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Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO₂ and PM_2.5 in equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Niño events occur