Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
Research article
 | 
15 May 2020
Research article |  | 15 May 2020

Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Niño events occur

Hideo Shiogama, Ryuichi Hirata, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Noriko N. Ishizaki, Satoru Chatani, Masahiro Watanabe, Daniel Mitchell, and Y. T. Eunice Lo

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-435-2020-supplement

Data sets

CASCADE REMOTE DOWNLOADER C20C+ Detection and Attribution Project https://portal.nersc.gov/cascade/data/downloader.php?get_dirs=

ERA-Interim ECMWF https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/reanalysis-datasets/era-interim

GPCP Version 2.3 Combined Precipitation Data Set NOAA/ESRL/PSL https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/data.gpcp.html

GFED Data GFED https://www.globalfiredata.org/data.html

Download
Short summary
Based on climate simulations, we suggested that historical warming increased chances of drought exceeding the severe 2015 event in equatorial Asia due to El Niño. The fire and fire emissions of CO2/PM2.5 will largely increase at 1.5 and 2 °C warming. If global warming reaches 3 °C, as is expected from the current mitigation policies, chances of fire and CO2/PM2.5 emissions exceeding the 2015 event become approximately 100 %. Future climate policy has to consider these climate change effects.
Read more
Special issue
Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations: Exploring Natural...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint