Articles | Volume 11, issue 2
Research article
15 May 2020
Research article |  | 15 May 2020

Historical and future anthropogenic warming effects on droughts, fires and fire emissions of CO2 and PM2.5 in equatorial Asia when 2015-like El Niño events occur

Hideo Shiogama, Ryuichi Hirata, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori, Noriko N. Ishizaki, Satoru Chatani, Masahiro Watanabe, Daniel Mitchell, and Y. T. Eunice Lo

Data sets

CASCADE REMOTE DOWNLOADER C20C+ Detection and Attribution Project


GPCP Version 2.3 Combined Precipitation Data Set NOAA/ESRL/PSL


Short summary
Based on climate simulations, we suggested that historical warming increased chances of drought exceeding the severe 2015 event in equatorial Asia due to El Niño. The fire and fire emissions of CO2/PM2.5 will largely increase at 1.5 and 2 °C warming. If global warming reaches 3 °C, as is expected from the current mitigation policies, chances of fire and CO2/PM2.5 emissions exceeding the 2015 event become approximately 100 %. Future climate policy has to consider these climate change effects.
Final-revised paper