Calibrating large-ensemble European climate  projections using observational data

O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Befort, Daniel J.; Weisheimer, Antje

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020

Articles | Volume 11, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 11, issue 4

Research article

|

19 Nov 2020

Research article |

| 19 Nov 2020

Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data

Christopher H. O'Reilly, Daniel J. Befort, and Antje Weisheimer

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Final revised paper (published on 19 Nov 2020)
Supplement to the final revised paper
Preprint (discussion started on 12 Mar 2020)
Supplement to the preprint

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

- Printer-friendly version

- Supplement

RC1: 'Review O'Reilly et al.', Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes, 12 Apr 2020
- AC1: 'Reply to reviewer 1', Christopher O'Reilly, 23 Jun 2020
RC2: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #2, 18 Apr 2020
- AC2: 'Reply to reviewer 2', Christopher O'Reilly, 23 Jun 2020
RC3: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #3, 19 Apr 2020
- AC3: 'Reply to reviewer 3', Christopher O'Reilly, 23 Jun 2020
RC4: 'Review of Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data', Anonymous Referee #4, 30 Apr 2020
- AC4: 'Reply to reviewer 4', Christopher O'Reilly, 23 Jun 2020

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (26 Jun 2020) by Yun Liu

AR by Christopher O'Reilly on behalf of the Authors (14 Aug 2020) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (19 Aug 2020) by Yun Liu

RR by Philip Sansom (24 Aug 2020)

RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (06 Sep 2020)

ED: Publish as is (07 Sep 2020) by Yun Liu

AR by Christopher O'Reilly on behalf of the Authors (14 Sep 2020)

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Short summary

This study examines how the output of large single-model ensembles can be calibrated using observational data to provide improved future projections over Europe. Using an out-of-sample imperfect model test, in which calibration techniques are applied to individual climate model realisations, these techniques are shown to generally improve the reliability of European climate projections for the next 40 years, particularly for regional surface temperature.