Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
Research article
 | 
19 Nov 2020
Research article |  | 19 Nov 2020

Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data

Christopher H. O'Reilly, Daniel J. Befort, and Antje Weisheimer

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Short summary
This study examines how the output of large single-model ensembles can be calibrated using observational data to provide improved future projections over Europe. Using an out-of-sample imperfect model test, in which calibration techniques are applied to individual climate model realisations, these techniques are shown to generally improve the reliability of European climate projections for the next 40 years, particularly for regional surface temperature.
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