Articles | Volume 11, issue 4
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1033–1049, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020
Earth Syst. Dynam., 11, 1033–1049, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-1033-2020

Research article 19 Nov 2020

Research article | 19 Nov 2020

Calibrating large-ensemble European climate projections using observational data

Christopher H. O'Reilly et al.

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Short summary
This study examines how the output of large single-model ensembles can be calibrated using observational data to provide improved future projections over Europe. Using an out-of-sample imperfect model test, in which calibration techniques are applied to individual climate model realisations, these techniques are shown to generally improve the reliability of European climate projections for the next 40 years, particularly for regional surface temperature.
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