Articles | Volume 10, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-711-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-711-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
07 Nov 2019
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 07 Nov 2019
| 07 Nov 2019
Meeting climate targets by direct CO2 injections: what price would the ocean have to pay?
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker
Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
Wolfgang Koeve
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker
Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
David P. Keller
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker
Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
Julia Getzlaff
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker
Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
Andreas Oschlies
GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker
Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
Related authors
Fabian Reith, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 797–812, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-797-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-797-2016, 2016
Miriam Tivig, David Peter Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-258, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-258, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
Marine biological production is highly dependent on the availability of nitrogen and phosphorus. Rivers are the main source of phosphorus to the oceans but poorly represented in global model oceans. We include dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus from river export in a global model ocean and find that the addition of riverine phosphorus affects marine biology on millennial timescales more than riverine nitrogen alone. Globally, riverine phosphorus input increase primary production rates.
Na Li, Christopher J. Somes, Angela Landolfi, Chia-Te Chien, Markus Pahlow, and Andreas Oschlies
EGUsphere, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-123, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-2024-123, 2024
Short summary
Short summary
N is an important nutrient that limits phytoplankton growth in large parts of the ocean. The amount of oceanic N is governed by the balance of N2 fixation and denitrification. Here we incorporate benthic denitrification in an Earth system model with variable stoichiometry. Our model compares better to the observed surface nutrient distributions, marine N2 fixation and primary production. Benthic denitrification plays an important role in marine N and C cycling, and hence the global climate.
Katja Fennel, Matthew C. Long, Christopher Algar, Brendan Carter, David Keller, Arnaud Laurent, Jann Paul Mattern, Ruth Musgrave, Andreas Oschlies, Josiane Ostiguy, Jaime B. Palter, and Daniel B. Whitt
State Planet, 2-oae2023, 9, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2-oae2023-9-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2-oae2023-9-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
This paper describes biogeochemical models and modelling techniques for applications related to ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) research. Many of the most pressing OAE-related research questions cannot be addressed by observation alone but will require a combination of skilful models and observations. We present illustrative examples with references to further information; describe limitations, caveats, and future research needs; and provide practical recommendations.
Andreas Oschlies, Lennart T. Bach, Rosalind E. M. Rickaby, Terre Satterfield, Romany Webb, and Jean-Pierre Gattuso
State Planet, 2-oae2023, 1, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2-oae2023-1-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/sp-2-oae2023-1-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Reaching promised climate targets will require the deployment of carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Marine CDR options receive more and more interest. Based on idealized theoretical studies, ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) appears as a promising marine CDR method. We provide an overview on the current situation of developing OAE as a marine CDR method and describe the history that has led to the creation of the OAE research best practice guide.
Tianfei Xue, Ivy Frenger, Jens Terhaar, A. E. Friederike Prowe, Thomas L. Frölicher, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-171, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2023-171, 2023
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
Phytoplankton plays a crucial role in marine ecosystems. However, climate change's impact on phytoplankton biomass remains uncertain, particularly in the Southern Ocean. In this region, phytoplankton biomass within the water column is likely to remain stable in response to climate change, as supported by models. This stability arises from a shallower mixed layer, favoring phytoplankton growth but also increasing zooplankton grazing due to phytoplankton concentration near the surface.
Iris Kriest, Julia Getzlaff, Angela Landolfi, Volkmar Sauerland, Markus Schartau, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 20, 2645–2669, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2645-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-2645-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
Global biogeochemical ocean models are often subjectively assessed and tuned against observations. We applied different strategies to calibrate a global model against observations. Although the calibrated models show similar tracer distributions at the surface, they differ in global biogeochemical fluxes, especially in global particle flux. Simulated global volume of oxygen minimum zones varies strongly with calibration strategy and over time, rendering its temporal extrapolation difficult.
Jiajun Wu, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 185–221, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-185-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we investigate an ocean-based carbon dioxide removal method: macroalgae open-ocean mariculture and sinking (MOS), which aims to cultivate seaweed in the open-ocean surface and to sink matured biomass quickly to the deep seafloor. Our results suggest that MOS has considerable potential as an ocean-based CDR method. However, MOS has inherent side effects on marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry, which will require careful evaluation beyond this first idealized modeling study.
Chia-Te Chien, Jonathan V. Durgadoo, Dana Ehlert, Ivy Frenger, David P. Keller, Wolfgang Koeve, Iris Kriest, Angela Landolfi, Lavinia Patara, Sebastian Wahl, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 5987–6024, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5987-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-5987-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
We present the implementation and evaluation of a marine biogeochemical model, Model of Oceanic Pelagic Stoichiometry (MOPS) in the Flexible Ocean and Climate Infrastructure (FOCI) climate model. FOCI-MOPS enables the simulation of marine biological processes, the marine carbon, nitrogen and oxygen cycles, and air–sea gas exchange of CO2 and O2. As shown by our evaluation, FOCI-MOPS shows an overall adequate performance that makes it an appropriate tool for Earth climate system simulations.
Tianfei Xue, Ivy Frenger, A. E. Friederike Prowe, Yonss Saranga José, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 19, 455–475, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-455-2022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-455-2022, 2022
Short summary
Short summary
The Peruvian system supports 10 % of the world's fishing yield. In the Peruvian system, wind and earth’s rotation bring cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface and allow phytoplankton to grow. But observations show that it grows worse at high upwelling. Using a model, we find that high upwelling happens when air mixes the water the most. Then phytoplankton is diluted and grows slowly due to low light and cool upwelled water. This study helps to estimate how it might change in a warming climate.
Karin Kvale, David P. Keller, Wolfgang Koeve, Katrin J. Meissner, Christopher J. Somes, Wanxuan Yao, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 7255–7285, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7255-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-7255-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new model of biological marine silicate cycling for the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM). This new model adds diatoms, which are a key aspect of the biological carbon pump, to an existing ecosystem model. Our modifications change how the model responds to warming, with net primary production declining more strongly than in previous versions. Diatoms in particular are simulated to decline with climate warming due to their high nutrient requirements.
Olaf Duteil, Ivy Frenger, and Julia Getzlaff
Ocean Sci., 17, 1489–1507, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1489-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1489-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
The large oxygen minimum zones in the tropical Pacific Ocean are still not well represented by typical climate models. We analyze a set of ocean models and highlight the fact that an oxygen concentration that is too low at intermediate depth in the subtropical regions associated with a sluggish representation of the intermediate equatorial current system may be responsible for the overly large extension of the modeled oxygen minimum zones, potentially hampering future projections.
Maria-Theresia Verwega, Christopher J. Somes, Markus Schartau, Robyn Elizabeth Tuerena, Anne Lorrain, Andreas Oschlies, and Thomas Slawig
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 13, 4861–4880, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4861-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-13-4861-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
This work describes a ready-to-use collection of particulate organic carbon stable isotope ratio data sets. It covers the 1960s–2010s and all main oceans, providing meta-information and gridded data. The best coverage exists in Atlantic, Indian and Southern Ocean surface waters during the 1990s. It indicates no major difference between methods and shows decreasing values towards high latitudes, with the lowest in the Southern Ocean, and a long-term decline in all regions but the Southern Ocean.
Miriam Tivig, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 18, 5327–5350, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5327-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-5327-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Nitrogen is one of the most important elements for life in the ocean. A major source is the riverine discharge of dissolved nitrogen. While global models often omit rivers as a nutrient source, we included nitrogen from rivers in our Earth system model and found that additional nitrogen affected marine biology not only locally but also in regions far off the coast. Depending on regional conditions, primary production was enhanced or even decreased due to internal feedbacks in the nitrogen cycle.
Henrike Schmidt, Julia Getzlaff, Ulrike Löptien, and Andreas Oschlies
Ocean Sci., 17, 1303–1320, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1303-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1303-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Oxygen-poor regions in the open ocean restrict marine habitats. Global climate simulations show large uncertainties regarding the prediction of these areas. We analyse the representation of the simulated oxygen minimum zones in the Arabian Sea using 10 climate models. We give an overview of the main deficiencies that cause the model–data misfit in oxygen concentrations. This detailed process analysis shall foster future model improvements regarding the oxygen minimum zone in the Arabian Sea.
Jaard Hauschildt, Soeren Thomsen, Vincent Echevin, Andreas Oschlies, Yonss Saranga José, Gerd Krahmann, Laura A. Bristow, and Gaute Lavik
Biogeosciences, 18, 3605–3629, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3605-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3605-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we quantify the subduction of upwelled nitrate due to physical processes on the order of several kilometers in the coastal upwelling off Peru and its effect on primary production. We also compare the prepresentation of these processes in a high-resolution simulation (~2.5 km) with a more coarsely resolved simulation (~12 km). To do this, we combine high-resolution shipboard observations of physical and biogeochemical parameters with a complex biogeochemical model configuration.
Mariana Hill Cruz, Iris Kriest, Yonss Saranga José, Rainer Kiko, Helena Hauss, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 18, 2891–2916, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2891-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2891-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we use a regional biogeochemical model of the eastern tropical South Pacific Ocean to implicitly simulate the effect that fluctuations in populations of small pelagic fish, such as anchovy and sardine, may have on the biogeochemistry of the northern Humboldt Current System. To do so, we vary the zooplankton mortality in the model, under the assumption that these fishes eat zooplankton. We also evaluate the model for the first time against mesozooplankton observations.
Markus Pahlow, Chia-Te Chien, Lionel A. Arteaga, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4663–4690, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4663-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4663-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
The stoichiometry of marine biotic processes is important for the regulation of atmospheric CO2 and hence the global climate. We replace a simplistic, fixed-stoichiometry plankton module in an Earth system model with an optimal-regulation model with variable stoichiometry. Our model compares better to the observed carbon transfer from the surface to depth and surface nutrient distributions. This work could aid our ability to describe and project the role of marine ecosystems in the Earth system.
Chia-Te Chien, Markus Pahlow, Markus Schartau, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4691–4712, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4691-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4691-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We demonstrate sensitivities of tracers to parameters of a new optimality-based plankton–ecosystem model (OPEM) in the UVic-ESCM. We find that changes in phytoplankton subsistence nitrogen quota strongly impact the nitrogen inventory, nitrogen fixation, and elemental stoichiometry of ordinary phytoplankton and diazotrophs. We introduce a new likelihood-based metric for model calibration, and it shows the capability of constraining globally averaged oxygen, nitrate, and DIC concentrations.
Nadine Mengis, David P. Keller, Andrew H. MacDougall, Michael Eby, Nesha Wright, Katrin J. Meissner, Andreas Oschlies, Andreas Schmittner, Alexander J. MacIsaac, H. Damon Matthews, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 4183–4204, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4183-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-4183-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper, we evaluate the newest version of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM 2.10). Combining recent model developments as a joint effort, this version is to be used in the next phase of model intercomparison and climate change studies. The UVic ESCM 2.10 is capable of reproducing changes in historical temperature and carbon fluxes well. Additionally, the model is able to reproduce the three-dimensional distribution of many ocean tracers.
Sabine Mathesius, Julia Getzlaff, Heiner Dietze, Andreas Oschlies, and Markus Schartau
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 12, 1775–1787, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1775-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-1775-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Controlled manipulation of environmental conditions within large enclosures in the ocean, pelagic mesocosms, has become a standard method to explore responses of marine plankton communities to anthropogenic change. Among the challenges of interpreting mesocosm data is the often uncertain role of vertical mixing. This study introduces a mesocosm mixing model that is able to estimate vertical diffusivities and thus provides a tool for future mesocosm data analyses that account for mixing.
Iris Kriest, Paul Kähler, Wolfgang Koeve, Karin Kvale, Volkmar Sauerland, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 17, 3057–3082, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3057-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3057-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
Constants of global biogeochemical ocean models are often tuned
by handto match observations of nutrients or oxygen. We investigate the effect of this tuning by optimising six constants of a global biogeochemical model, simulated in five different offline circulations. Optimal values for three constants adjust to distinct features of the circulation applied and can afterwards be swapped among the circulations, without losing too much of the model's fit to observed quantities.
Heiner Dietze, Ulrike Löptien, and Julia Getzlaff
Geosci. Model Dev., 13, 71–97, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-71-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-13-71-2020, 2020
Short summary
Short summary
We present a new near-global coupled biogeochemical ocean-circulation model configuration of the Southern Ocean. The configuration features both a relatively equilibrated oceanic carbon inventory and an explicit representation of mesoscale eddies. In this paper, we document the model configuration and showcase its potential to tackle research questions such as the Southern Ocean carbon uptake dynamics on decadal timescales.
Tronje P. Kemena, Angela Landolfi, Andreas Oschlies, Klaus Wallmann, and Andrew W. Dale
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 539–553, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-539-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-539-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Oceanic deoxygenation is driven by climate change in several areas of the global ocean. Measurements indicate that ocean volumes with very low oxygen levels expand, with consequences for marine organisms and fishery. We found climate-change-driven phosphorus (P) input in the ocean is hereby an important driver for deoxygenation on longer timescales with effects in the next millennia.
Daniela Niemeyer, Iris Kriest, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 16, 3095–3111, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3095-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-3095-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Recent studies suggest spatial variations of the marine particle flux length scale. Using a global biogeochemical ocean model, we investigate whether changes in particle size and size-dependent sinking can explain this variation. We address uncertainties by varying aggregate properties and circulation. Both aspects have an impact on the representation of nutrients, oxygen and oxygen minimum zones. The formation and sinking of large aggregates in productive areas lead to deeper flux penetration.
Yonss Saranga José, Lothar Stramma, Sunke Schmidtko, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-155, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2019-155, 2019
Revised manuscript accepted for BG
Short summary
Short summary
In situ observations along the Peruvian and Chilean coasts have exhibited variability in the water column oxygen concentration. This variability, which is attributed to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), might have implication on the vertical extension of the Eastern Tropical South Pacific (ETSP) oxygen minimum zone. Here using a coupled physical-biogeochemical model, we provide new insights into how ENSO variability affects the vertical extension of the oxygen-poor waters of the ETSP.
Olaf Duteil, Andreas Oschlies, and Claus W. Böning
Biogeosciences, 15, 7111–7126, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7111-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-7111-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Oxygen-depleted regions of the Pacific Ocean are currently expanding, which is threatening marine habitats. Based on numerical simulations, we show that the decrease in the intensity of the trade winds and the subsequent slowdown of the oceanic currents lead to a reduction in oxygen supply. Our study suggests that the prevailing positive conditions of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation since 1975, a major source of natural variability, may explain a significant part of the current deoxygenation.
Marine Bretagnon, Aurélien Paulmier, Véronique Garçon, Boris Dewitte, Séréna Illig, Nathalie Leblond, Laurent Coppola, Fernando Campos, Federico Velazco, Christos Panagiotopoulos, Andreas Oschlies, J. Martin Hernandez-Ayon, Helmut Maske, Oscar Vergara, Ivonne Montes, Philippe Martinez, Edgardo Carrasco, Jacques Grelet, Olivier Desprez-De-Gesincourt, Christophe Maes, and Lionel Scouarnec
Biogeosciences, 15, 5093–5111, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5093-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-5093-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
In oxygen minimum zone, the fate of the organic matter is a key question as the low oxygen condition would preserve the OM and thus enhance the biological carbon pump while the high microbial activity would foster the remineralisation and the greenhouse gases emission. To investigate this paradigm, sediment traps were deployed off Peru. We pointed out the influence of the oxygenation as well as the organic matter quantity and quality on the carbon transfer efficiency in the oxygen minimum zone.
Andrew Lenton, Richard J. Matear, David P. Keller, Vivian Scott, and Naomi E. Vaughan
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 339–357, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-339-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-339-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
Artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA) is capable of reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and surface warming while also addressing ocean acidification. We simulate the Earth system response to a fixed addition of AOA under low and high emissions. We explore the regional and global response to AOA. A key finding is that AOA is much more effective at reducing warming and ocean acidification under low emissions, despite lower carbon uptake.
Volkmar Sauerland, Ulrike Löptien, Claudine Leonhard, Andreas Oschlies, and Anand Srivastav
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1181–1198, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1181-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1181-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
We present a concept to prove that a parametric model is well calibrated, i.e., that changes of its free parameters cannot lead to a much better model–data misfit anymore. The intention is motivated by the fact that calibrating global biogeochemical ocean models is important for assessment and inter-model comparison but computationally expensive.
David P. Keller, Andrew Lenton, Vivian Scott, Naomi E. Vaughan, Nico Bauer, Duoying Ji, Chris D. Jones, Ben Kravitz, Helene Muri, and Kirsten Zickfeld
Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 1133–1160, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1133-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-1133-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
There is little consensus on the impacts and efficacy of proposed carbon dioxide removal (CDR) methods as a potential means of mitigating climate change. To address this need, the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (or CDR-MIP) has been initiated. This project brings together models of the Earth system in a common framework to explore the potential, impacts, and challenges of CDR. Here, we describe the first set of CDR-MIP experiments.
Nadine Mengis, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 9, 15–31, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-15-2018, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-15-2018, 2018
Short summary
Short summary
The Systematic Correlation Matrix Evaluation (SCoMaE) method applies statistical information to systematically select, transparent, nonredundant indicators for a comprehensive assessment of the Earth system state. We show that due to changing climate forcing, such as anthropogenic climate change, the ad hoc assessment indicators might need to be reevaluated. Within an iterative process, this method would allow us to select scientifically consistent and societally relevant assessment indicators.
Karin F. Kvale, Samar Khatiwala, Heiner Dietze, Iris Kriest, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2425–2445, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2425-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2425-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Computer models of ocean biology and chemistry are becoming increasingly complex, and thus more expensive, to run. One solution is to approximate the behaviour of the ocean physics and store that information outside of the model. That
offlineinformation can then be used to calculate a steady-state solution from the model's biology and chemistry, without waiting for a traditional
onlineintegration to complete. We show this offline method reproduces online results and is 100 times faster.
James C. Orr, Raymond G. Najjar, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, John L. Bullister, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Jean-Claude Dutay, Heather Graven, Stephen M. Griffies, Jasmin G. John, Fortunat Joos, Ingeborg Levin, Keith Lindsay, Richard J. Matear, Galen A. McKinley, Anne Mouchet, Andreas Oschlies, Anastasia Romanou, Reiner Schlitzer, Alessandro Tagliabue, Toste Tanhua, and Andrew Yool
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2169–2199, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2169-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is a model comparison effort under Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Its physical component is described elsewhere in this special issue. Here we describe its ocean biogeochemical component (OMIP-BGC), detailing simulation protocols and analysis diagnostics. Simulations focus on ocean carbon, other biogeochemical tracers, air-sea exchange of CO2 and related gases, and chemical tracers used to evaluate modeled circulation.
Daniela Niemeyer, Tronje P. Kemena, Katrin J. Meissner, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 357–367, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-357-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-357-2017, 2017
Markus Schartau, Philip Wallhead, John Hemmings, Ulrike Löptien, Iris Kriest, Shubham Krishna, Ben A. Ward, Thomas Slawig, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 14, 1647–1701, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1647-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1647-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Plankton models have become an integral part in marine ecosystem and biogeochemical research. These models differ in complexity and in their number of parameters. How values are assigned to parameters is essential. An overview of major methodologies of parameter estimation is provided. Aspects of parameter identification in the literature are diverse. Individual findings could be better synthesized if notation and expertise of the different scientific communities would be reasonably merged.
Heiner Dietze, Julia Getzlaff, and Ulrike Löptien
Biogeosciences, 14, 1561–1576, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1561-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1561-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
The Southern Ocean is a sink for anthropogenic carbon. Projections of how this sink will evolve in an ever-warming climate are based on coupled ocean-circulation–biogeochemical models. This study compares uncertainties of simulated oceanic carbon uptake associated to physical (eddy) parameterizations with those associated wtih (unconstrained) supply of bioavailable iron supply to the surface ocean.
Yonss Saranga José, Heiner Dietze, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 14, 1349–1364, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1349-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-1349-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
This study aims to investigate the diverse subsurface nutrient patterns observed within anticyclonic eddies in the upwelling system off Peru. Two simulated anticyclonic eddies with opposing subsurface nitrate concentrations were analysed. The results show that diverse nutrient patterns within anticyclonic eddies are related to the presence of water mass from different origins at different depths, responding to variations in depth of the circulation strength at the edge of the eddy.
Iris Kriest, Volkmar Sauerland, Samar Khatiwala, Anand Srivastav, and Andreas Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 127–154, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-127-2017, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-127-2017, 2017
Short summary
Short summary
Global biogeochemical ocean models are subject to a high level of parametric uncertainty. This may be of consequence for their skill with respect to accurately describing features of the present ocean and their sensitivity to possible environmental changes. We present the first results from a framework that combines an offline biogeochemical tracer transport model with an estimation of distribution algorithm, calibrating six biogeochemical model parameters against observed oxygen and nutrients.
Fabian Reith, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 797–812, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-797-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-797-2016, 2016
Bei Su, Markus Pahlow, and Andreas Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 13, 4985–5001, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4985-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4985-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
Previously identified positive feedbacks within the nitrogen cycle in the eastern tropical South Pacific (ETSP) have challenged our understanding of the observed dynamics and stability of the nitrogen inventory. We present a box model analysis of the biological and biogeochemical relations in the ETSP among nitrogen deposition, benthic denitrification and phosphate regeneration. Our results suggest dominant stabilizing feedbacks tending to keep a balanced nitrogen inventory in the ETSP.
I. Kriest and A. Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2929–2957, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2929-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2929-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
We use a global model of oceanic P, N, and O2 cycles to investigate consequences of uncertainties in description of organic matter sinking, remineralization, denitrification, and N2-Fixation. After all biogeochemical and physical processes have been spun-up into a dynamically consistent steady-state, particle sinking and oxidant affinities of aerobic and anaerobic remineralization determine the extent of oxygen minimum zones, global nitrogen fluxes, and the oceanic nitrogen inventory.
W. Koeve, H. Wagner, P. Kähler, and A. Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2079–2094, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2079-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-2079-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
The natural abundance of 14C in CO2 dissolved in seawater is often used to evaluate circulation and age in the ocean and in ocean models. We study limitations of using natural 14C to determine the time elapsed since water had contact with the atmosphere. We find that, globally, bulk 14C age is dominated by two equally important components, (1) the time component of circulation and (2) the “preformed 14C-age”. Considering preformed 14C-age is critical for an assessment of circulation in models.
L. Nickelsen, D. P. Keller, and A. Oschlies
Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1357–1381, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1357-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-8-1357-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
In this paper we find that including the marine cycle of the phytoplankton nutrient iron in a global climate model improves the agreement between observed and simulated nutrient concentrations in the ocean and that a better description of the source of iron from the sediment to the ocean is more important than that of iron-containing dust deposition. Finally, we find that the response of the iron cycle to climate warming affects the phytoplankton growth and nutrient cycles.
B. Su, M. Pahlow, H. Wagner, and A. Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 12, 1113–1130, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1113-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-1113-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
A box model of the eastern tropical South Pacific oxygen minimum zone suggests that anaerobic water-column remineralization rates have to be slower than aerobic remineralization in order to explain the relatively high values of observed nitrate concentrations. Lateral oxygen supply sufficient to oxidize about one-fifth of the export production is required to prevent an anoxic deep ocean. Under these circumstances, the region can be a net source of fixed nitrogen to the surrounding ocean.
W. Koeve, O. Duteil, A. Oschlies, P. Kähler, and J. Segschneider
Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 2393–2408, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2393-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2393-2014, 2014
A. E. F. Prowe, M. Pahlow, S. Dutkiewicz, and A. Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 11, 3397–3407, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3397-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-3397-2014, 2014
K. F. Kvale, K. J. Meissner, D. P. Keller, M. Eby, and A. Schmittner
Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-7-1709-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmdd-7-1709-2014, 2014
Revised manuscript not accepted
I. Kriest and A. Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 10, 8401–8422, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8401-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-8401-2013, 2013
O. Duteil, W. Koeve, A. Oschlies, D. Bianchi, E. Galbraith, I. Kriest, and R. Matear
Biogeosciences, 10, 7723–7738, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7723-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7723-2013, 2013
C. J. Somes, A. Oschlies, and A. Schmittner
Biogeosciences, 10, 5889–5910, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5889-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-5889-2013, 2013
V. Cocco, F. Joos, M. Steinacher, T. L. Frölicher, L. Bopp, J. Dunne, M. Gehlen, C. Heinze, J. Orr, A. Oschlies, B. Schneider, J. Segschneider, and J. Tjiputra
Biogeosciences, 10, 1849–1868, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1849-2013, 2013
A. Landolfi, H. Dietze, W. Koeve, and A. Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 10, 1351–1363, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1351-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1351-2013, 2013
M. El Jarbi, J. Rückelt, T. Slawig, and A. Oschlies
Biogeosciences, 10, 1169–1182, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1169-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-1169-2013, 2013
L. M. Zamora, A. Oschlies, H. W. Bange, K. B. Huebert, J. D. Craig, A. Kock, and C. R. Löscher
Biogeosciences, 9, 5007–5022, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-5007-2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-5007-2012, 2012
Related subject area
Management of the Earth system: carbon sequestration and management
Carbon dioxide removal via macroalgae open-ocean mariculture and sinking: an Earth system modeling study
Soil organic carbon dynamics from agricultural management practices under climate change
Regional variation in the effectiveness of methane-based and land-based climate mitigation options
Modeling forest plantations for carbon uptake with the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model
Characteristics of soil profile CO2 concentrations in karst areas and their significance for global carbon cycles and climate change
ESD Ideas: Photoelectrochemical carbon removal as negative emission technology
Revisiting ocean carbon sequestration by direct injection: a global carbon budget perspective
Collateral transgression of planetary boundaries due to climate engineering by terrestrial carbon dioxide removal
Soil carbon management in large-scale Earth system modelling: implications for crop yields and nitrogen leaching
Carbon farming in hot, dry coastal areas: an option for climate change mitigation
Jiajun Wu, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 185–221, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-185-2023, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-185-2023, 2023
Short summary
Short summary
In this study we investigate an ocean-based carbon dioxide removal method: macroalgae open-ocean mariculture and sinking (MOS), which aims to cultivate seaweed in the open-ocean surface and to sink matured biomass quickly to the deep seafloor. Our results suggest that MOS has considerable potential as an ocean-based CDR method. However, MOS has inherent side effects on marine ecosystems and biogeochemistry, which will require careful evaluation beyond this first idealized modeling study.
Tobias Herzfeld, Jens Heinke, Susanne Rolinski, and Christoph Müller
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1037–1055, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1037-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1037-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
Soil organic carbon sequestration on cropland has been proposed as a climate change mitigation strategy. We simulate different agricultural management practices under climate change scenarios using a global biophysical model. We find that at the global aggregated level, agricultural management practices are not capable of enhancing total carbon storage in the soil, yet for some climate regions, we find that there is potential to enhance the carbon content in cropland soils.
Garry D. Hayman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Chris Huntingford, Anna B. Harper, Tom Powell, Peter M. Cox, William Collins, Christopher Webber, Jason Lowe, Stephen Sitch, Joanna I. House, Jonathan C. Doelman, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Sarah E. Chadburn, Eleanor Burke, and Nicola Gedney
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 513–544, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-513-2021, 2021
Short summary
Short summary
We model greenhouse gas emission scenarios consistent with limiting global warming to either 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify the effectiveness of methane emission control and land-based mitigation options regionally. Our results highlight the importance of reducing methane emissions for realistic emission pathways that meet the global warming targets. For land-based mitigation, growing bioenergy crops on existing agricultural land is preferable to replacing forests.
Maarten C. Braakhekke, Jonathan C. Doelman, Peter Baas, Christoph Müller, Sibyll Schaphoff, Elke Stehfest, and Detlef P. van Vuuren
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 617–630, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-617-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-617-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
We developed a computer model that simulates forests plantations at global scale and how fast such forests can take up CO2 from the atmosphere. Using this new model, we performed simulations for a scenario in which a large fraction (14 %) of global croplands and pastures are either converted to planted forests or natural forests. We find that planted forests take up CO2 substantially faster than natural forests and are therefore a viable strategy for reducing climate change.
Qiao Chen
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 525–538, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-525-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-525-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
The missing carbon sink is puzzling since carbon cycle is related to global climate. The varying characteristics of soil profile CO2 concentration in carbonate areas and noncarbonates were investigated, together with pH, SOC, and isotope. It is found that carbonate corrosion deeply consumes soil CO2, which accounts for an average of 36 %. Such a process is important for karst carbon cycles and global climate changes, and may be a potential part of the
missing sink.
Matthias M. May and Kira Rehfeld
Earth Syst. Dynam., 10, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-1-2019, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-1-2019, 2019
Short summary
Short summary
Current CO2 emission rates are incompatible with the 2 °C target for global warming. Negative emission technologies are therefore an important basis for climate policy scenarios. We show that photoelectrochemical CO2 reduction might be a viable, high-efficiency alternative to biomass-based approaches, which reduce competition for arable land. To develop them, chemical reactions have to be optimized for CO2 removal, which deviates from energetic efficiency optimization in solar fuel applications.
Fabian Reith, David P. Keller, and Andreas Oschlies
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 797–812, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-797-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-797-2016, 2016
Vera Heck, Jonathan F. Donges, and Wolfgang Lucht
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 783–796, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-783-2016, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-783-2016, 2016
Short summary
Short summary
We assess the co-evolutionary dynamics of the Earth's carbon cycle and societal interventions through terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) with a conceptual model in a planetary boundary context. The focus on one planetary boundary alone may lead to navigating the Earth system out of the safe operating space due to transgression of other boundaries. The success of tCDR depends on the degree of anticipation of climate change, the potential tCDR rate and the underlying emission pathway.
S. Olin, M. Lindeskog, T. A. M. Pugh, G. Schurgers, D. Wårlind, M. Mishurov, S. Zaehle, B. D. Stocker, B. Smith, and A. Arneth
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 745–768, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-745-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-745-2015, 2015
Short summary
Short summary
Croplands are vital ecosystems for human well-being. Properly managed they can supply food, store carbon and even sequester carbon from the atmosphere. Conversely, if poorly managed, croplands can be a source of nitrogen to inland and coastal waters, causing algal blooms, and a source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, accentuating climate change. Here we studied cropland management types for their potential to store carbon and minimize nitrogen losses while maintaining crop yields.
K. Becker, V. Wulfmeyer, T. Berger, J. Gebel, and W. Münch
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 237–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-237-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-237-2013, 2013
Cited articles
Allen, M. R., Frame, D. J., Huntingford, C., Jones, C. D., Lowe, J. A.,
Meinshausen, M., and Meinshausen, N.: Warming caused by cumulative carbon
emissions towards the trillionth tonne, Nature, 458, 1163–1166,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08019, 2009.
Archer, D.: A data-driven model of the global calcite lysocline, Global
Biogeochem. Cy., 10, 511–526, https://doi.org/10.1029/96GB01521, 1996.
Archer, D.: Fate of fossil fuel CO2 in geologic time, J. Geophys. Res.-Oceans, 110, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JC002625, 2005.
Archer, D., Kheshgi, H. S., and Maier-Reimer, E.: Dynamics of fossil fuel
CO2 neutralization by marine CaCO3, Glob. Biogeochem. Cy., 12, 259–276, 1998.
Bigalke, N. K., Rehder, G., and Gust, G.: Experimental investigation of the
rising behavior of CO2 droplets in seawater under hydrate-forming
conditions, Environ. Sci. Technol., 42, 5241–5246, https://doi.org/10.1021/es800228j, 2008.
Bitz, C. M. and Lipscomb, W. H.: An energy-conserving thermodynamic model of
sea ice, J. Geophys. Res., 104, 15669, https://doi.org/10.1029/1999JC900100, 1999.
Boysen, L., Lucht, W., Schellnhuber, H., Gerten, D., Heck, V., and Lenton, T.: The limits to global-warming mitigation by terrestrial carbon removal,
Earth's Future, 5, 1–12, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000469, 2017.
Cao, L., Eby, M., Ridgwell, A., Caldeira, K., Archer, D., Ishida, A., Joos, F., Matsumoto, K., Mikolajewicz, U., Mouchet, A., Orr, J. C., Plattner, G.-K., Schlitzer, R., Tokos, K., Totterdell, I., Tschumi, T., Yamanaka, Y.,
and Yool, A.: The role of ocean transport in the uptake of anthropogenic
CO2, Biogeosciences, 6, 375–390, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-6-375-2009, 2009.
Ciais, P., Sabine, C., Bala, G., Bopp, L., Brovkin, V., Canadell, J., Chhabra, A., DeFries, R., Galloway, J., Heimann, M., Jones, C., Le Quéré, C., Myneni, R. B., Piao, S., and Thornton, P.: Carbon and Other Biogeochemical Cycles, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
Clarke, L. E., Jiang, K., Akimoto, K., Babiker, M., Blanford, G.,
Fisher-Vanden, K., Hourcade, J.-C., Krey, V., Kriegler, E., Löschel, A.,
McCollum, D., Paltsev, S., Rose, S., Shukla, P. R., Tavoni, M., van der
Zwaan, B. C. C., and van Vuuren, D. P.: Assessing transformation pathways, in: Clim. Chang. 2014 Mitig. Clim. Chang. Contrib. Work. Gr. III to Fifth
Assess. Rep. Intergov. Panel Clim. Chang., Earth's Future, 5, 463–474, 2014.
Clémençon, R.: The Two Sides of the Paris Climate Agreement, J.
Environ. Dev., 25, 3–24, https://doi.org/10.1177/1070496516631362, 2016.
Collins, M., Knutti, R., Arblaster, J., Dufresne, J.-L., Fichefet, T.,
Friedlingstein, P., Gao, X., Gutowski, W. J., Johns, T., Krinner, G., Shongwe, M., Tebaldi, C., Weaver, A. J., and Wehner, M.: Long-term Climate Change: Projections, Commitments and Irreversibility, in: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2013.
DeVries, T. and Primeau, F.: Dynamically and Observationally Constrained
Estimates of Water-Mass Distributions and Ages in the Global Ocean, J. Phys.
Oceanogr., 41, 2381–2401, https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-10-05011.1, 2011.
Dickson, A. G. and Millero, F. J.: A comparison of the equilibrium constants
for the dissociation of carbonic acid in seawater media, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. A, 34, 1733–1743, https://doi.org/10.1016/0198-0149(87)90021-5, 1987.
Doney, S. C., Fabry, V. J., Feely, R. A., and Kleypas, J. A.: Ocean
acidification: the other CO2 problem, Ann. Rev. Mar. Sci., 1, 169–192, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.marine.010908.163834, 2009.
Eby, M., Zickfeld, K., Montenegro, A.., Archer, D., Meissner, K. J., and Weaver, A. J.: Lifetime of anthropogenic climate change: Millennial time scales of potential CO2 and surface temperature perturbations, J. Climate, 22, 2501–2511, https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2554.1, 2009.
Fabricius, K. E., Kluibenschedl, A., Harrington, L., Noonan, S., and De'ath,
G.: In situ changes of tropical crustose coralline algae along carbon dioxide gradients, Sci. Rep., 5, 9537, https://doi.org/10.1038/srep09537, 2015.
Fanning, A. F. and Weaver, A. J.: An atmospheric energy-moisture balance model: Climatology, interpentadal climate change, and coupling to an ocean
general circulation model, J. Geophys. Res., 101, 15111, https://doi.org/10.1029/96JD01017, 1996.
Feng, E. Y., Keller, D. P., Koeve, W., and Oschlies, A.: Could artificial
ocean alkalinization protect tropical coral ecosystems from ocean
acidification?, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 74008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/7/074008, 2016.
Flögel, S., Dullo, W. C., Pfannkuche, O., Kiriakoulakis, K., and
Rüggeberg, A.: Geochemical and physical constraints for the occurrence of living cold-water corals, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 99, 19–26, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.06.006, 2014.
Friedlingstein, P., Andrew, R. M., Rogelj, J., Peters, G. P., Canadell, J. G., Knutti, R., Luderer, G., Raupach, M. R., Schaeffer, M., Van Vuuren, D. P., and Le Quéré, C.: Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets, Nat. Publ. Gr., 7, 709–715,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2248, 2014.
Fuss, S., Canadell, J. G., Peters, G. P., Tavoni, M., Andrew, R. M., Ciais, P., Jackson, R. B., Jones, C. D., Kraxner, F., Nakicenovic, N., Le Quéré, C., Raupach, M. R., Sharifi, A., Smith, P., and Yamagata, Y.: Betting on negative emissions, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 850–853,
https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2392, 2014.
Fuss, S., Lamb, W. F., Callaghan, M. W., Hilaire, J., Creutzig, F., Amann, T., Beringer, T., De Oliveira Garcia, W., Hartmann, J., Khanna, T., Luderer,
G., Nemet, G. F., Rogelj, J., Smith, P., Vicente, J. V., Wilcox, J., Del Mar
Zamora Dominguez, M., and Minx, J. C.: Negative emissions – Part 2: Costs,
potentials and side effects, Environ. Res. Lett., 13, 063002, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9f, 2018.
Gasser, T., Guivarch, C., Tachiiri, K., Jones, C. D., and Ciais, P.: Negative
emissions physically needed to keep global warming below 2 ∘C, Nat. Commun., 6, 7958, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms8958, 2015.
Gehlen, M., Séférian, R., Jones, D. O. B., Roy, T., Roth, R., Barry,
J., Bopp, L., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P., Heinze, C., Joos, F., Orr, J. C.,
Resplandy, L., Segschneider, J., and Tjiputra, J.: Projected pH reductions by 2100 might put deep North Atlantic biodiversity at risk, Biogeosciences,
11, 6955–6967, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6955-2014, 2014.
Gillett, N. P., Arora, V. K., Zickfeld, K., Marshall, S. J., and Merryfield,
W. J.: Ongoing climate change following a complete cessation of carbon dioxide emissions, Nat. Geosci., 4, 83–87, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1047, 2011.
Guinotte, J. M. and Fabry, V. J.: Ocean acidification and its potential effects on marine ecosystems, Ann. N. Y. Acad. Sci., 1134, 320–342,
https://doi.org/10.1196/annals.1439.013, 2008.
Hansen, J., Sato, M., Kharecha, P., von Schuckmann, K., Beerling, D. J., Cao, J., Marcott, S., Masson-Delmotte, V., Prather, M. J., Rohling, E. J., Shakun, J., Smith, P., Lacis, A., Russell, G., and Ruedy, R.: Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissions, Earth Syst. Dynam., 8, 577–616, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017, 2017.
Hoffert, M. I., Wey, Y. C., Callegari, A. J., and Broecker, W. S.: Atmospheric response to deep-sea injections of fossil-fuel carbon dioxide,
Climatic Change, 2, 53–68, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00138226, 1979.
Horton, J. B., Keith, D. W., and Honegger, M.: Implications of the Paris Agreement for Carbon Dioxide Removal and Solar Geoengineering, Policy Brief, Harvard Project on Climate Agreements, Belfer Center, 2016.
IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Special Report on
Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage, edited by: Metz, B., Davidson, O.,
de Coninck, H. C., Loos, M., and Meyer, L. A., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 422 pp., 2005.
IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Workshop Report of the
IPCC Workshop on Impacts of Ocean Acidification on Marine Biology and
Ecosystems, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Mastrandrea, M. D., Tignor, M., and Ebi, K. L., IPCC Working Group II Technical Support Unit, Carnegie Institution, Stanford,
California, USA, 164 pp., 2011.
IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, in: Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Field, C. B., Barros, V. R., and Dokken, D. J., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2014.
Jain, A. K. and Cao, L.: Assessing the effectiveness of direct injection for
ocean carbon sequestration under the influence of climate change, Geophys.
Res. Lett., 32, L09609, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022818, 2005.
Keeling, R. F.: Triage in the greenhouse, Nat. Geosci., 2, 820–822,
https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo701, 2009.
Keller, D. P., Oschlies, A., and Eby, M.: A new marine ecosystem model for the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1195–1220, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-5-1195-2012, 2012.
Keller, D. P., Feng, E. Y., and Oschlies, A.: Potential climate engineering
effectiveness and side effects during a high carbon dioxide-emission scenario, Nat. Commun., 5, 3304, https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms4304, 2014.
Keller, D. P., Lenton, A., Littleton, E. W., Oschlies, A., Scott, V., and
Vaughan, N. E.: The Effects of Carbon Dioxide Removal on the Carbon Cycle,
Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 4, 250–265, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-018-0104-3, 2018.
Kleypas, J. A., McManus, J. W., and Menez, L.: Environmental limits to coral reef development: Where do we draw the line?, Am. Zool., 39, 146–159, 1999.
Knopf, B., Fuss, S., Hansen, G., Creutzig, F., Minx, J., and Edenhofer, O.:
From Targets to Action: Rolling up our Sleeves after Paris, Glob. Challeng., 1, 1600007, https://doi.org/10.1002/gch2.201600007, 2017.
Knutti, R., Rogelj, J., Sedláček, J., and Fischer, E. M.: A scientific critique of the two-degree climate change target, Nat. Geosci.,
9, 13–18, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2595, 2015.
Koeve, W. and Oschlies, A.: Potential impact of DOM accumulation on fCO2 and carbonate ion computations in ocean acidification experiments, Biogeosciences, 9, 3787–3798, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-3787-2012, 2012.
Le Quéré, C., Andrew, R. M., Canadell, J. G., Sitch, S., Ivar Korsbakken, J., Peters, G. P., Manning, A. C., Boden, T. A., Tans, P. P., Houghton, R. A., Keeling, R. F., Alin, S., Andrews, O. D., Anthoni, P., Barbero, L., Bopp, L., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Ciais, P., Currie, K., Delire, C., Doney, S. C., Friedlingstein, P., Gkritzalis, T., Harris, I., Hauck, J., Haverd, V., Hoppema, M., Klein Goldewijk, K., Jain, A. K., Kato, E., Körtzinger, N., Lenton, A., Lienert, S., Lombardozzi, D., Melton, J. R., Metzl, N., Millero, F., Monteiro, P. M. S., Munro, D. R., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nakaoka, S. I., O'Brien, K., Olsen, A., Omar, A. M., Ono, T., Pierrot, D., Poulter, Salisbury, J., Schuster, U., Schwinger, J., R., Skjelvan, I., Stocker, B. D., Sutton, A. J., Takahashi, T., Tian, H., Tilbrook, B., Van Der Laan-Luijkx, I. T., Van Der Werf, G. R., Viovy, N., Walker, A. P., Wiltshire, A. J., and Zaehle, S.: Global Carbon Budget 2016, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 8, 605–649, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016, 2016.
Leung, D. Y. C., Caramanna, G., and Maroto-Valer, M. M.: An overview of
current status of carbon dioxide capture and storage technologies, Renew.
Sustain. Energy Rev., 39, 426–443, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.07.093, 2014.
Lewis, E. and Wallace, D. W. R.: Program developed for CO2 system calculations, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Report ORNL/CDIAC-105, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA, 1998.
Lischka, S., Büdenbender, J., Boxhammer, T., and Riebesell, U.: Impact of
ocean acidification and elevated temperatures on early juveniles of the polar shelled pteropod Limacina helicina: Mortality, shell degradation, and shell growth, Biogeosciences, 8, 919–932, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-8-919-2011, 2011.
MacDougall, A. H.: The Transient Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions: a Review, Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 2, 39–47, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0030-6, 2016.
Marchetti, C.: On geoengineering and the CO2 problem, Climatic Change, 1, 59–68, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00162777, 1977.
Matthews, H. D. and Caldeira, K.: Stabilizing climate requires near-zero
emissions, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, 1–5, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032388, 2008.
Matthews, H. D., Gillett, N. P., Stott, P. A., and Zickfeld, K.: The
proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions, Nature,
459, 829–832, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08047, 2009.
Mehrbach, C., Culberson, C. H., Hawley, J. E., and Pytkowicx, R. M.: Measurement of the Apparent Dissociation Constants of Carbonic Acid in
Seawater At Atmospheric Pressure1, Limnol. Oceanogr., 18, 897–907,
https://doi.org/10.4319/lo.1973.18.6.0897, 1973.
Meinshausen, M., Smith, S. J., Calvin, K., Daniel, J. S., Kainuma, M. L. T.,
Lamarque, J., Matsumoto, K., Montzka, S. a., Raper, S. C. B., Riahi, K., Thomson, A., Velders, G. J. M., and van Vuuren, D. P. P.: The RCP greenhouse
gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300, Climatic Change,
109, 213–241, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z, 2011.
Meissner, K. J., Weaver, A. J., Matthews, H. D., and Cox, P. M.: The role of
land surface dynamics in glacial inception: A study with the UVic Earth
System Model, Clim. Dynam., 21, 515–537, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0352-2,
2003.
Mengis, N., Partanen, A. I., Jalbert, J., and Matthews, H. D.: 1.5 ∘C carbon budget dependent on carbon cycle uncertainty and future non-CO2 forcing, Sci. Rep., 8, 1–7, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-24241-1, 2018.
Millero, F. J.: Thermodynamics of the carbon dioxide system in the ocean, Geochim. Cosmochim. Ac., 59, 661–677, 1995.
Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kainuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G. A., Mitchell, J. F. B., Nakicenovic, N., Riahi, K., Smith, S. J., Stouffer, R. J., Thomson, A. M., Weyant, J. P., and Wilbanks, T. J.: The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment, Nature, 463, 747–756, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823, 2010.
Mucci A.: The solubility of calcite and aragonite in seawater at various
salinities, temperatures and one atmosphere total pressure, Am. J. Sci., 283, 780–799, 1983.
Myhre, G., Samset, B. H., Schulz, M., Balkanski, Y., Bauer, S., Berntsen, T. K., Bian, H., Bellouin, N., Chin, M., Diehl, T., Easter, R. C., Feichter, J., Ghan, S. J., Hauglustaine, D., Iversen, T., Kinne, S., Kirkeväg, A.,
Lamarque, J. F., Lin, G., Liu, X., Lund, M. T., Luo, G., Ma, X., Van Noije, T., Penner, J. E., Rasch, P. J., Ruiz, A., Seland, Skeie, R. B., Stier, P.,
Takemura, T., Tsigaridis, K., Wang, P., Wang, Z., Xu, L., Yu, H., Yu, F., Yoon, J. H., Zhang, K., Zhang, H., and Zhou, C.: Radiative forcing of the
direct aerosol effect from AeroCom Phase II simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys.,
13, 1853–1877, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-1853-2013, 2013.
Ogden, L. E.: Marine Life on Acid, Bioscience, 63, 322–328,
https://doi.org/10.1525/bio.2013.63.5.3, 2013.
Orr, J. C.: Modelling of ocean storage of CO2 – The GOSAC study, Report PH4/37, in: IEA Greenhouse gas R&D Programme, 96 pp., available at: https://www.lsce.ipsl.fr/Phocea/Pisp/index.php?nom=james.orr (last access: November 2019), 2004.
Orr, J. C., Najjar, C. R., Sabine, C. L., and Joos, F.: Abiotic-Howto,
Internal OCMIP Report, LCSE/CEA Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette, France, 25 pp., 1999.
Orr, J. C., Aumont, O., Yool, A., Plattner, K., Joos, F., Maier-Reimer, E.,
Weirig, M.-F., Schlitzer, R., Caldeira, K., Wicket, M., and Matear, R.: Ocean CO2 Sequestration Efficiency from 3-D Ocean Model Comparison, in:
Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies, edited by: Williams, D., Durie, B.,
McMullan, P., Paulson, C., and Smith, A., CSIRO, Colligwood, Australia, 469–474, 2001.
Pacanowski, R. C.: MOM2, Documentation, User's Guide and Reference Manual, GFDL Ocean Technical Report 3.2, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory/NOAA, Princeton, 329 pp., 2016.
Pandolfi, J. M., Connolly, S. R., Marshall, D. J., and Cohen, A. L.: Projecting Coral Reef Futures Under Global Warming and Ocean Acidification,
Science, 333, 418–422, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1204794, 2011.
Rao, S., Klimont, Z., Smith, S. J., Van Dingenen, R., Dentener, F.,Bouwman, L., Riahi, K., Amann, M., Bodirsky, B. L., van Vuuren, D. P., Reis, L. A.,
Calvin, K., Drouet, L., Fricko, O., Fujimori, S., Gernaat, D., Havlik, P.,
Harmsen, M., Hasegawa, T., Heyes, C., Hilaire, J., Luderer, G., Masui, T.,
Stehfest, E., Strefler, J., van der Sluis, S., and Tavoni, M.: Future air
pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways, Global Environ. Change, 42,
346–358, 2017.
Reith, F., Keller, D. P., and Oschlies, A.: Revisiting ocean carbon sequestration by direct injection: A global carbon budget perspective, Earth
Syst. Dynam., 7, 797–812, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-797-2016, 2016.
Reith, F., Koeve, W., Keller, D. P., Getzlaff, J., and Oschlies, A.: Model data used to generate the table and figures of this publication, available at: https://data.geomar.de/thredds/catalog/open_access/reith_et_al_2019_esd/catalog.html, 2019
Resplandy, L., Bopp, L., Orr, J. C., and Dunne, J. P.: Role of mode and
intermediate waters in future ocean acidification: Analysis of CMIP5 models,
Geophys. Res. Lett., 40, 3091–3095, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50414, 2013.
Ricke, K. L., Orr, J. C., Schneider, K., and Caldeira, K.: Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model
projections, Environ. Res. Lett., 8, 34003, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034003, 2013.
Ridgwell, A., Rodengen, T. J., and Kohfeld, K. E.: Geographical variations in
the effectiveness and side effects of deep ocean carbon sequestration, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, 1–6, https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048423, 2011.
Roberts, J. M. and Cairns, S. D.: Cold-water corals in a changing ocean,
Curr. Opin. Environ. Sustain., 7, 118–126, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2014.01.004, 2014.
Rockström, J., Steffen, W., Noone, K., Persson, Å., Chapin III, F.
S., Lambin, E. F., Lenton, T. M., Scheffer, M., Folke, C., Schellnhuber, H.,
Nykvist, B., de Wit, C. A., Hughes, T., van der Leeuw, S., Rodhe, H., Sörlin, S., Snyder, P. K., Costanza, R., and Al, E.: Planetary Boundaries: Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity, Ecol. Soc.,
14, 32, https://doi.org/10.1038/461472a, 2009.
Rockström, J., Schellnhuber, H., Hoskins, B., Ramanathan, V., Brasseur, G., Gaffney, O., Nobre, C., Meinshausen, M., and Lucht, W.: Earth's Future The world's biggest gamble Earth's Future, Earth's Future, 4, 465–470,
https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000392, 2016.
Rogelj, J., Den Elzen, M., Fransen, T., Fekete, H., Winkler, H., Schaeffer, R., Sha, F., Riahi, K., and Meinshausen, M.: Perspective: Paris Agreement
climate proposals need boost to keep warming well below 2 ∘C, Nat. Clim. Change, 534, 631–639, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature18307, 2016.
Sabine, C. L., Feely, R. A., Gruber, N., Key, R. M., Lee, K., Bullister, J.
L., Wanninkhof, R., Wong, C. S., Wallace, D. W. R., Tilbrook, B., Millero, F. J., Peng, T.-H., Kozyr, A., Ono, T., and Rios, A. F.: The oceanic sink for
anthropogenic CO2, Science, 305, 367–371, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1097403, 2004.
Sanderson, B. M., O'Neill, B. C., and Tebaldi, C.: What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 43, 7133–7142, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069563, 2016.
Sarmiento, J. L. and Toggweiler, J. R.: A new model for the role of the oceans in determining atmospheric PCO2, Nature, 308, 621–624, https://doi.org/10.1038/308621a0, 1984.
Schubert, R., Schellnhuber, H. J., Buchmann, N., Epiney, A., Griesshammer,
R., Kulessa, M., Messner, D., Rahmstorf, S., and Schmid, J.: The Future
Oceans – Warming Up, Rising High, Turning Sour., Wissenchaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung (WBGU), Berlin, 2006.
Smith, P., Davis, S. J., Creutzig, F., Fuss, S., Minx, J., Gabrielle, B., Kato, E., Jackson, R. B., Cowie, A., Kriegler, E., van Vuuren, D. P., Rogelj, J., Ciais, P., Milne, J., Canadell, J. G., McCollum, D., Peters, G., Andrew, R., Krey, V., Shrestha, G., Friedlingstein, P., Gasser, T., Grubler, A., Heidug, W. K., Jonas, M., Jones, C. D., Kraxner, F., Littleton, E., Lowe, J., Moreira, J. R., Nakicenovic, N., Obersteiner, M., Patwardhan, A., Rogner, M., Rubin, E., Sharifi, A., Torvanger, A., Yamagata, Y., Edmonds, J., and Yongsung, C.: Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2
emissions, Nat. Clim. Change, 6, 42–50, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2870, 2016.
UNFCCC: Conference of the Parties: Adoption of the Paris Agreement, Proposal
by the President, Paris Clim. Chang. Conf. – Novemb. 2015, COP 21, 21932
(December 2015), 31, available at: http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/l09.pdf (last access: 14 April 2018), 2015.
van Heuven, S., Pierrot, D., Lewis, E., and Wallace, D. W. R.: MATLAB Program
Developed for CO2 System Calculations, ORNL/CDIAC-105b, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, available at: ftp://cdiac.ornl.gov/pub/co2sys/CO2SYScalcMATLAB (last access: 14 April 2018), 2009.
Volk, T. and Hoffert, M. I.: Ocean carbon pumps: Analysis of relative
strengths and efficiencies in ocean driven atmospheric CO2 changes, in: The Carbon Cycle and Atmospheric CO2: Natural variations Archaean to present, edited by: Sundquist, E. T. and Broecker, W. S., Geophys. Monogr. Ser., AGU, Washington, D.C., 32, 99–110, 1985.
Weaver, A. J., Eby, M., Wiebe, E. C., Bitz, C. M., Duffy, P. B., Ewen, T. L., Fanning, A. F., Holland, M. M., MacFadyen, A., Matthews, H. D., Meissner, K. J., Saenko, O., Schmittner, A., Wang, H., and Yoshimori, M.: The UVic earth system climate model: Model description, climatology, and applications to past, present and future climates, Atmos.-Ocean, 39, 361–428, https://doi.org/10.1080/07055900.2001.9649686, 2001.
Williamson, P.: Emissions reduction: Scrutinize CO2 removal methods, Nature, 530, 5–7, https://doi.org/10.1038/530153a, 2016.
Zeebe, R. E.: History of Seawater Carbonate Chemistry, Atmospheric CO2, and Ocean Acidification, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci., 40, 141–165, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-042711-105521, 2012.
Zickfeld, K. and Herrington, T.: The time lag between a carbon dioxide emission and maximum warming increases with the size of the emission, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 31001, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/3/031001, 2015.
Zickfeld, K., MacDougall, A. H., and Matthews, H. D.: On the proportionality
between global temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions during periods of net negative CO2 emissions, Environ. Res. Lett., 11, 55006, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/055006, 2016.
Short summary
This modeling study is the first one to look at the suitability and collateral effects of direct CO2 injection into the deep ocean as a means to bridge the gap between CO2 emissions and climate impacts of an intermediate CO2 emission scenario and a temperature target on a millennium timescale, such as the 1.5 °C climate target of the Paris Agreement.
This modeling study is the first one to look at the suitability and collateral effects of direct...
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint