Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
The following lists the preprints and final revised papers published within the last 60 days.
03 Mar 2021
Spatiotemporal patterns of synchronous heavy rainfall events in East Asia during the Baiu season
Frederik Wolf, Ugur Ozturk, Kevin Cheung, and Reik V. Donner
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 295–312, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-295-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-295-2021, 2021
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01 Mar 2021
Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6
Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 253–293, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-253-2021, 2021
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01 Mar 2021
Evolution of the climate in the next million years: A reduced-complexity model for glacial cycles and impact of anthropogenic CO2 emissions
Stefanie Talento and Andrey Ganopolski
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-2,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-2, 2021
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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26 Feb 2021
A dynamical systems characterization of atmospheric jet regimes
Gabriele Messori, Nili Harnik, Erica Madonna, Orli Lachmy, and Davide Faranda
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 233–251, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-233-2021, 2021
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25 Feb 2021
Abrupt climate change as rate-dependent cascading tipping point
Johannes Lohmann, Daniele Castellana, Peter D. Ditlevsen, and Henk A. Dijkstra
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-7,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-7, 2021
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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25 Feb 2021
Sea Level Dynamics and Coastal Erosion in the Baltic Sea Region
Ralf Weisse, Inga Dailidiene, Birgit Hünicke, Kimmo Kahma, Kristine Madsen, Anders Omstedt, Kevin Parnell, Tilo Schöne, Tarmo Soomere, Wenyan Zhang, and Eduardo Zorita
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-6,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-6, 2021
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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23 Feb 2021
How modelling paradigms affect simulated future land use change
Calum Brown, Ian Holman, and Mark Rounsevell
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 211–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021, 2021
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19 Feb 2021
Rankings of extreme and widespread dry and wet events in the Iberian Peninsula between 1901 and 2016
Margarida L. R. Liberato, Irene Montero, Célia Gouveia, Ana Russo, Alexandre M. Ramos, and Ricardo M. Trigo
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 197–210, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-197-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-197-2021, 2021
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18 Feb 2021
Trivial improvements of predictive skill due to direct reconstruction of global carbon cycle
Aaron Spring, István Dunkl, Hongmei Li, Victor Brovkin, and Tatiana Ilyina
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-4,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-4, 2021
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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16 Feb 2021
Climate controlled root zone parameters show potential to improve water flux simulations by land surface models
Fransje van Oorschot, Ruud J. van der Ent, Markus Hrachowitz, and Andrea Alessandri
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-3,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-3, 2021
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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11 Feb 2021
Assessment of a full-field initialized decadal climate prediction system with the CMIP6 version of EC-Earth
Roberto Bilbao, Simon Wild, Pablo Ortega, Juan Acosta-Navarro, Thomas Arsouze, Pierre-Antoine Bretonnière, Louis-Philippe Caron, Miguel Castrillo, Rubén Cruz-García, Ivana Cvijanovic, Francisco Javier Doblas-Reyes, Markus Donat, Emanuel Dutra, Pablo Echevarría, An-Chi Ho, Saskia Loosveldt-Tomas, Eduardo Moreno-Chamarro, Núria Pérez-Zanon, Arthur Ramos, Yohan Ruprich-Robert, Valentina Sicardi, Etienne Tourigny, and Javier Vegas-Regidor
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 173–196, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-173-2021, 2021
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11 Feb 2021
Space-time dependence of compound hot-dry events in the United States: assessment using a multi-site multi-variable weather generator
Manuela I. Brunner, Eric Gilleland, and Andrew W. Wood
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-5,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2021-5, 2021
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 1 comment)
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10 Feb 2021
Identifying meteorological drivers of extreme impacts: an application to simulated crop yields
Johannes Vogel, Pauline Rivoire, Cristina Deidda, Leila Rahimi, Christoph A. Sauter, Elisabeth Tschumi, Karin van der Wiel, Tianyi Zhang, and Jakob Zscheischler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 151–172, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-151-2021, 2021
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10 Feb 2021
On structural errors in emergent constraints
Benjamin M. Sanderson, Angeline Pendergrass, Charles D. Koven, Florent Brient, Ben B. B. Booth, Rosie A. Fisher, and Reto Knutti
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-85,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-85, 2021
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: open, 0 comments)
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04 Feb 2021
A new view of heat wave dynamics and predictability over the eastern Mediterranean
Assaf Hochman, Sebastian Scher, Julian Quinting, Joaquim G. Pinto, and Gabriele Messori
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 133–149, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-133-2021, 2021
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02 Feb 2021
Simulating compound weather extremes responsible for critical crop failure with stochastic weather generators
Peter Pfleiderer, Aglaé Jézéquel, Juliette Legrand, Natacha Legrix, Iason Markantonis, Edoardo Vignotto, and Pascal Yiou
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 103–120, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-103-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-103-2021, 2021
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02 Feb 2021
Synchronized spatial shifts of Hadley and Walker circulations
Kyung-Sook Yun, Axel Timmermann, and Malte F. Stuecker
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 121–132, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-121-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-121-2021, 2021
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18 Jan 2021
Characterisation of Atlantic meridional overturning hysteresis using Langevin dynamics
Jelle van den Berk, Sybren Drijfhout, and Wilco Hazeleger
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 69–81, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-69-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-69-2021, 2021
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18 Jan 2021
Stratospheric ozone and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) interaction with the tropical troposphere on intraseasonal and interannual timescales: a normal-mode perspective
Breno Raphaldini, André S. W. Teruya, Pedro Leite da Silva Dias, Lucas Massaroppe, and Daniel Yasumasa Takahashi
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 83–101, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-83-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-83-2021, 2021
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13 Jan 2021
Multiscale fractal dimension analysis of a reduced order model of coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics
Tommaso Alberti, Reik V. Donner, and Stéphane Vannitsem
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-96,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-96, 2021
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
12 Jan 2021
ESD Ideas: The Peclet number is a cornerstone of the orbital and millennial Pleistocene variability
Mikhail Y. Verbitsky and Michel Crucifix
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 63–67, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-63-2021, 2021
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11 Jan 2021
Comparison of uncertainties in land-use change fluxes from bookkeeping model parameterization
Ana Bastos, Kerstin Hartung, Tobias B. Nützel, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Richard A. Houghton, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-92,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-92, 2021
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 2 comments)
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11 Jan 2021
Net land-use change carbon flux estimates and sensitivities – An assessment with a bookkeeping model based on CMIP6 forcing
Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Louise Chini, Raphael Ganzenmüller, Felix Havermann, George C. Hurtt, Tammas Loughran, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tobias Nützel, Wolfgang A. Obermeier, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-94,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-94, 2021
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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08 Jan 2021
Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – A spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches
Wolfgang A. Obermeier, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Tammas Loughran, Kerstin Hartung, Ana Bastos, Felix Havermann, Peter Anthoni, Almut Arneth, Daniel S. Goll, Sebastian Lienert, Danica Lombardozzi, Sebastiaan Luyssaert, Patrick C. McGuire, Joe R. Melton, Benjamin Poulter, Stephen Sitch, Michael O. Sullivan, Hanqin Tian, Anthony P. Walker, Andrew J. Wiltshire, Soenke Zaehle, and Julia Pongratz
Earth Syst. Dynam. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-93,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2020-93, 2021
Preprint under review for ESD (discussion: final response, 3 comments)
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07 Jan 2021
Historical and future contributions of inland waters to the Congo Basin carbon balance
Adam Hastie, Ronny Lauerwald, Philippe Ciais, Fabrice Papa, and Pierre Regnier
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 37–62, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-37-2021, 2021
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06 Jan 2021
Impact of precipitation and increasing temperatures on drought trends in eastern Africa
Sarah F. Kew, Sjoukje Y. Philip, Mathias Hauser, Mike Hobbins, Niko Wanders, Geert Jan van Oldenborgh, Karin van der Wiel, Ted I. E. Veldkamp, Joyce Kimutai, Chris Funk, and Friederike E. L. Otto
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 17–35, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-17-2021, 2021
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06 Jan 2021
Evaluating the dependence structure of compound precipitation and wind speed extremes
Jakob Zscheischler, Philippe Naveau, Olivia Martius, Sebastian Engelke, and Christoph C. Raible
Earth Syst. Dynam., 12, 1–16, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-1-2021, 2021
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