Articles | Volume 9, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1169-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1169-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
The effect of overshooting 1.5 °C global warming on the mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Ulrike Falk
formerly at: Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Katja Frieler
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Stefan Lange
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany
Angelika Humbert
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Department of Geoscience, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
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Cited
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to spatial resolution in higher-order simulations: the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) contribution to ISMIP6 Greenland using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) M. Rückamp et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3309-2020
- Arctic observations and sustainable development goals – Contributions and examples from ERA-PLANET iCUPE data S. Noe et al. 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.02.034
- Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Runoff Projections to 2200 Using Degree-Day Methods C. Yue et al. 10.3390/atmos12121569
- Reduced Ice Loss From Greenland Under Stratospheric Aerosol Injection J. Moore et al. 10.1029/2023JF007112
- Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet N. Bochow et al. 10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9
- Elastic deformation plays a non-negligible role in Greenland’s outlet glacier flow J. Christmann et al. 10.1038/s43247-021-00296-3
- Machine learning-assisted selection of adsorption-based carbon dioxide capture materials E. Al-Sakkari et al. 10.1016/j.jece.2023.110732
- Machine learning predictive models of CO2 adsorption in sustainable waste-derived activated carbon A. Ibrahim & M. Hussein 10.1016/j.jece.2025.119674
- Strong Summer Atmospheric Rivers Trigger Greenland Ice Sheet Melt through Spatially Varying Surface Energy Balance and Cloud Regimes K. Mattingly et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0835.1
- Overview: Integrative and Comprehensive Understanding on Polar Environments (iCUPE) – concept and initial results T. Petäjä et al. 10.5194/acp-20-8551-2020
- The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6 H. Goelzer et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
- Quantifying the effect of ocean bed properties on ice sheet geometry over 40 000 years with a full-Stokes model C. Schannwell et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3917-2020
- Large and irreversible future decline of the Greenland ice sheet J. Gregory et al. 10.5194/tc-14-4299-2020
- Vatnajökull Mass Loss Under Solar Geoengineering Due to the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation C. Yue et al. 10.1029/2021EF002052
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Sensitivity of Greenland ice sheet projections to spatial resolution in higher-order simulations: the Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI) contribution to ISMIP6 Greenland using the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM) M. Rückamp et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3309-2020
- Arctic observations and sustainable development goals – Contributions and examples from ERA-PLANET iCUPE data S. Noe et al. 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.02.034
- Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Runoff Projections to 2200 Using Degree-Day Methods C. Yue et al. 10.3390/atmos12121569
- Reduced Ice Loss From Greenland Under Stratospheric Aerosol Injection J. Moore et al. 10.1029/2023JF007112
- Overshooting the critical threshold for the Greenland ice sheet N. Bochow et al. 10.1038/s41586-023-06503-9
- Elastic deformation plays a non-negligible role in Greenland’s outlet glacier flow J. Christmann et al. 10.1038/s43247-021-00296-3
- Machine learning-assisted selection of adsorption-based carbon dioxide capture materials E. Al-Sakkari et al. 10.1016/j.jece.2023.110732
- Machine learning predictive models of CO2 adsorption in sustainable waste-derived activated carbon A. Ibrahim & M. Hussein 10.1016/j.jece.2025.119674
- Strong Summer Atmospheric Rivers Trigger Greenland Ice Sheet Melt through Spatially Varying Surface Energy Balance and Cloud Regimes K. Mattingly et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0835.1
- Overview: Integrative and Comprehensive Understanding on Polar Environments (iCUPE) – concept and initial results T. Petäjä et al. 10.5194/acp-20-8551-2020
- The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6 H. Goelzer et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020
- Quantifying the effect of ocean bed properties on ice sheet geometry over 40 000 years with a full-Stokes model C. Schannwell et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3917-2020
- Large and irreversible future decline of the Greenland ice sheet J. Gregory et al. 10.5194/tc-14-4299-2020
- Vatnajökull Mass Loss Under Solar Geoengineering Due to the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation C. Yue et al. 10.1029/2021EF002052
Latest update: 21 Oct 2025
Short summary
Sea-level rise associated with changing climate is expected to pose a major challenge for societies. Based on the efforts of COP21 to limit global warming to 2.0 °C by the end of the 21st century (Paris Agreement), we simulate the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea-level change. The projected sea-level rise ranges between 21–38 mm by 2100
and 36–85 mm by 2300. Our results indicate that uncertainties in the projections stem from the underlying climate data.
Sea-level rise associated with changing climate is expected to pose a major challenge for...
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