Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 9, issue 3
Articles | Volume 9, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1085-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1085-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 9, issue 3
Research article
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30 Aug 2018
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 30 Aug 2018

The point of no return for climate action: effects of climate uncertainty and risk tolerance

Matthias Aengenheyster, Qing Yi Feng, Frederick van der Ploeg, and Henk A. Dijkstra

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Short summary
We determine the point of no return (PNR) for climate change, which is the latest year to take action to reduce greenhouse gases to stay, with a certain probability, within thresholds set by the Paris Agreement. For a 67 % probability and a 2 K threshold, the PNR is the year 2035 when the share of renewable energy rises by 2 % per year. We show the impact on the PNR of the speed by which emissions are cut, the risk tolerance, climate uncertainties and the potential for negative emissions.
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