Articles | Volume 9, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1085-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-9-1085-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
30 Aug 2018
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 30 Aug 2018
| 30 Aug 2018
The point of no return for climate action: effects of climate uncertainty and risk tolerance
Matthias Aengenheyster
Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, Department of Physics,
Oxford University, Oxford, UK
Qing Yi Feng
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric
Research Utrecht, Department of Physics, Utrecht University,
Utrecht, the Netherlands
Centre for Complex Systems Studies, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
Frederick van der Ploeg
Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich
Economies, Department of Economics, Oxford University, Oxford,
UK
Henk A. Dijkstra
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Marine and Atmospheric
Research Utrecht, Department of Physics, Utrecht University,
Utrecht, the Netherlands
Centre for Complex Systems Studies, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
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Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 14 Dec 2024
Short summary
We determine the point of no return (PNR) for climate change, which is the latest year to take action to reduce greenhouse gases to stay, with a certain probability, within thresholds set by the Paris Agreement. For a 67 % probability and a 2 K threshold, the PNR is the year 2035 when the share of renewable energy rises by 2 % per year. We show the impact on the PNR of the speed by which emissions are cut, the risk tolerance, climate uncertainties and the potential for negative emissions.
We determine the point of no return (PNR) for climate change, which is the latest year to take...
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