Articles | Volume 7, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-119-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-119-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Feb 2016
Research article |
| 15 Feb 2016
Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector
A. M. Foley
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, 19 Silver Street, Cambridge, CB3 9EP, UK
now at: Department of Geography, Environment and Development Studies, Birkbeck, University of London, 32 Tavistock Square, London, WC1H 9EZ, UK
P. B. Holden
Environment, Earth and Ecosystems, Open University, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA, UK
N. R. Edwards
Environment, Earth and Ecosystems, Open University, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA, UK
J.-F. Mercure
Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, 19 Silver Street, Cambridge, CB3 9EP, UK
now at: Department of Environmental Sciences, Radboud University, Nijmegen, the Netherlands
P. Salas
Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, 19 Silver Street, Cambridge, CB3 9EP, UK
H. Pollitt
Cambridge Econometrics Ltd, Covent Garden, Cambridge, CB1 2HT, UK
U. Chewpreecha
Cambridge Econometrics Ltd, Covent Garden, Cambridge, CB1 2HT, UK
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Cited
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Value-added diagnostics for the assessment and validation of integrated assessment models T. Wigley et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2021.111605
- Building a traceable climate model hierarchy with multi-level emulators G. Tran et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-17-2016
- Viticulture extension in response to global climate change drivers – lessons from the past and future projections J. Guiot et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1219-2023
- Impact of negative and positive CO2 emissions on global warming metrics using an ensemble of Earth system model simulations N. Vakilifard et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022
- Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World–Earth modeling framework J. Donges et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020
- Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE J. Mercure et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2018.03.003
- The role of enhanced rock weathering deployment with agriculture in limiting future warming and protecting coral reefs N. Vakilifard et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1818
- Multi-level emulation of complex climate model responses to boundary forcing data G. Tran et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4205-4
- The role of electric grid research in addressing climate change L. Xie et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02092-1
- Substantial carbon drawdown potential from enhanced rock weathering in the United Kingdom E. Kantzas et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00925-2
- The impact of climate change mitigation policies on European labour markets E. Alexandri et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.108022
- Large-scale emulation of spatio-temporal variation in temperature under climate change X. Yuan et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd213
- Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets J. Mercure et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0182-1
- Reframing incentives for climate policy action J. Mercure et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00934-2
14 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Value-added diagnostics for the assessment and validation of integrated assessment models T. Wigley et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2021.111605
- Building a traceable climate model hierarchy with multi-level emulators G. Tran et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/ascmo-2-17-2016
- Viticulture extension in response to global climate change drivers – lessons from the past and future projections J. Guiot et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-1219-2023
- Impact of negative and positive CO2 emissions on global warming metrics using an ensemble of Earth system model simulations N. Vakilifard et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-4249-2022
- Earth system modeling with endogenous and dynamic human societies: the copan:CORE open World–Earth modeling framework J. Donges et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-395-2020
- Environmental impact assessment for climate change policy with the simulation-based integrated assessment model E3ME-FTT-GENIE J. Mercure et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2018.03.003
- The role of enhanced rock weathering deployment with agriculture in limiting future warming and protecting coral reefs N. Vakilifard et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac1818
- Multi-level emulation of complex climate model responses to boundary forcing data G. Tran et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4205-4
- The role of electric grid research in addressing climate change L. Xie et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02092-1
- Substantial carbon drawdown potential from enhanced rock weathering in the United Kingdom E. Kantzas et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00925-2
- The impact of climate change mitigation policies on European labour markets E. Alexandri et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2023.108022
- Large-scale emulation of spatio-temporal variation in temperature under climate change X. Yuan et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd213
- Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets J. Mercure et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0182-1
- Reframing incentives for climate policy action J. Mercure et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-021-00934-2
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 19 Aug 2026
Short summary
We introduce GENIEem-PLASIM-ENTSem (GPem), a climate-carbon cycle emulator, showing how model emulation can be used in integrated assessment modelling to resolve regional climate impacts and systematically capture uncertainty. In a case study, we couple GPem to FTT:Power-E3MG, a non-equilibrium economic model with technology diffusion. We find that when the electricity sector is decarbonised by 90 %, further emissions reductions must be achieved in other sectors to avoid dangerous climate change.
We introduce GENIEem-PLASIM-ENTSem (GPem), a climate-carbon cycle emulator, showing how model...
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