Articles | Volume 7, issue 1
Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 119–132, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-119-2016

Special issue: Social dynamics and planetary boundaries in Earth system...

Earth Syst. Dynam., 7, 119–132, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-119-2016
Research article
15 Feb 2016
Research article | 15 Feb 2016

Climate model emulation in an integrated assessment framework: a case study for mitigation policies in the electricity sector

A. M. Foley et al.

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Cited articles

Bouwman, A. F., Kram, T., and Klein Goldewijk, K.: Integrated modelling of global environmental change. An overview of IMAGE 2.4, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, the Netherlands, 2006.
Cabré, M. F., Solman, S., and Nuñez, M.: Creating regional climate change scenarios over southern South America for the 2020s and 2050s using the pattern scaling technique: Validity and limitations, Climatic Change, 98, 449–469, 2010.
Castruccio, S., McInerney, D. J., Stein, M. L., Liu Crouch, F., Jacob, R. L., and Moyer, E. J.: Statistical emulation of climate model projections based on precomputed gcm runs, J. Climate, 27, 1829–1844, 2014.
Den Elzen, M. and Meinshausen, M.: Meeting the EU 2 °C climate target: Global and regional emission implications, Clim. Policy, 6, 545–564, 2006.
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We introduce GENIEem-PLASIM-ENTSem (GPem), a climate-carbon cycle emulator, showing how model emulation can be used in integrated assessment modelling to resolve regional climate impacts and systematically capture uncertainty. In a case study, we couple GPem to FTT:Power-E3MG, a non-equilibrium economic model with technology diffusion. We find that when the electricity sector is decarbonised by 90 %, further emissions reductions must be achieved in other sectors to avoid dangerous climate change.
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