Articles | Volume 5, issue 2
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-355-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-355-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Oct 2014
Research article |
| 22 Oct 2014
Climate impacts on human livelihoods: where uncertainty matters in projections of water availability
T. K. Lissner
Geography Department, Humboldt-University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
D. E. Reusser
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
J. Schewe
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
T. Lakes
Geography Department, Humboldt-University Berlin, Berlin, Germany
J. P. Kropp
Dept. of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Potsdam University, Potsdam, Germany
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
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Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) can provide alternative insights that conventional land-use models are unable to generate. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) can interpret the results of the purely data-driven approach. XGBoost achieved similar and robust simulation results. SHAP values were useful for analysing the complex relationship between the different drivers of grassland degradation.
Wei Weng, Matthias K. B. Luedeke, Delphine C. Zemp, Tobia Lakes, and Juergen P. Kropp
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We provide a detailed spatial analysis of hydrological impacts of land use change in Amazonia, focusing on the aspect of
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Boris F. Prahl, Diego Rybski, Markus Boettle, and Jürgen P. Kropp
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Damage functions are an essential tool for vulnerability assessment and the quantification of disaster loss. They are often tailored to specific hazards and regions, which complicates knowledge transfer between different hazards and places. In our work, we unify approaches for climate-related hazards, e.g. for storms and coastal floods. A unified damage function is embedded in an uncertainty framework, where we identify the dominating sources of uncertainty on local and regional scales.
M. Boettle, D. Rybski, and J. P. Kropp
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We provide simple functional expressions to characterise the development of coastal flood damage for rising mean sea levels as well as implemented flood protection levels. Furthermore, we are able to quantify the aleatory uncertainty of our estimates. All results are mathematically proven and their usability confirmed by employing two case study regions. Thus, we gain fundamental insights into the interplay of coastal flood damage, the mean sea level, and flood defence.
M. Pfannerstill, B. Guse, D. Reusser, and N. Fohrer
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B. F. Prahl, D. Rybski, O. Burghoff, and J. P. Kropp
Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 769–788, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-769-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-769-2015, 2015
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V. Huber, H. J. Schellnhuber, N. W. Arnell, K. Frieler, A. D. Friend, D. Gerten, I. Haddeland, P. Kabat, H. Lotze-Campen, W. Lucht, M. Parry, F. Piontek, C. Rosenzweig, J. Schewe, and L. Warszawski
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 399–408, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-399-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-399-2014, 2014
T. K. Lissner, C. A. Sullivan, D. E. Reusser, and J. P. Kropp
Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 4039–4052, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4039-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4039-2014, 2014
A. Menon, A. Levermann, J. Schewe, J. Lehmann, and K. Frieler
Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 287–300, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-287-2013, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-287-2013, 2013
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Ole Mertz, Kjeld Rasmussen, and Laura Vang Rasmussen
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Timothy M. Lenton, Peter-Paul Pichler, and Helga Weisz
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J. Heitzig, T. Kittel, J. F. Donges, and N. Molkenthin
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T. Ide and C. Fröhlich
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M. V. Ogra and R. Badola
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R. Cremades, J. Wang, and J. Morris
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 399–410, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-399-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-399-2015, 2015
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Econometric analyses results revealed that policy support via subsidies and extension services have played an important role in promoting the adoption of irrigation technology. Strikingly, the present irrigation pricing policy has played significant but contradictory roles in promoting the adoption of different types of irrigation technology. Irrigation pricing showed a positive impact on household-based irrigation technology, and a negative impact on community-based irrigation technology.
A. Milan, G. Gioli, and T. Afifi
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M. Abid, J. Scheffran, U. A. Schneider, and M. Ashfaq
Earth Syst. Dynam., 6, 225–243, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-225-2015, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-225-2015, 2015
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S. P. K. Bowring, L. M. Miller, L. Ganzeveld, and A. Kleidon
Earth Syst. Dynam., 5, 43–53, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-43-2014, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-5-43-2014, 2014
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Short summary
Climate change will have impacts on many different sectors of society, but a systematic method to quantify human well-being and livelihoods across sectors is so far unavailable. This paper presents the AHEAD approach, which allows for relating impacts of climate change to 16 dimensions of livelihoods and well-being. Using the example of changes in water availability, the results show how climate change impacts AHEAD. The approach also provides a tool to frame uncertainties from climate models.
Climate change will have impacts on many different sectors of society, but a systematic method...
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