A multivariate analysis of atmospheric drivers for Western European heatwaves

Paçal, Aytaç; Hassler, Birgit; Weigel, Katja; Fernández-Torres, Miguel-Ángel; Camps-Valls, Gustau; Eyring, Veronika

doi:10.5194/esd-17-955-2026

Articles | Volume 17, issue 4

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-955-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-955-2026

© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 4

Research article

|

13 Jul 2026

Research article |

| 13 Jul 2026

A multivariate analysis of atmospheric drivers for Western European heatwaves

Aytaç Paçal, Birgit Hassler, Katja Weigel, Miguel-Ángel Fernández-Torres, Gustau Camps-Valls, and Veronika Eyring

Data sets

Complete ERA5 from 1940: Fifth generation of ECMWF atmospheric reanalyses of the global climate H. Hersbach et al. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.143582cf

Model code and software

EyringMLClimateGroup/pacal25esd\_UnderstandingHeatwaves\_VAE: Understanding European Heatwaves with Variational Autoencoders (v1.0) A. Paçal https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.15828268

Short summary

Heatwaves are among the deadliest natural hazards, yet their evolving atmospheric drivers remain unclear. We apply an unsupervised machine learning model to reanalysis data to identify multivariate heatwave patterns over Europe. The model captures seasonally distinct regimes and reveals significant shifts between historical and recent events across all seasons, highlighting changes in heatwave dynamics over time.