Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-929-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-929-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
Research article
 | 
01 Jul 2026
Research article |  | 01 Jul 2026

Strong intensification of extreme fire weather in Europe under 3 °C compared to 2 °C global warming

A. Serkan Bayar, Joaquim G. Pinto, Célia M. Gouveia, and Alexandre M. Ramos

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Short summary

Europe is warming faster than the global average, raising concerns about future wildfire risks. Using regional climate models, we find that extreme fire weather is projected to become more severe, more frequent, and more widespread across the continent, especially if global warming reaches 3 °C. The projected increase is mainly linked to a drier atmosphere. Our findings highlight the need to limit warming and strengthen adaptation practices to protect vulnerable ecosystems and communities.

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