Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-913-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-913-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
Research article
 | 
30 Jun 2026
Research article |  | 30 Jun 2026

Northern high latitudes could become a net carbon source below 2 °C global warming

Rebecca M. Varney, Daniel Hooke, Norman J. Steinert, T. Luke Smallman, Camilla Mathison, and Eleanor J. Burke

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Short summary
The northern high latitudes mitigate climate change by land ecosystems absorbing more carbon from the atmosphere than they release. This carbon sink is sensitive to long-term CO2 emissions. Here, we use a probabilistic framework to quantify the timing and magnitude of a transition to a carbon source in different future emission scenarios, including overshoot. The fate of this region is dependent on the balance between carbon loss from permafrost and gain from increased vegetation productivity.
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