Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-893-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-893-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
Research article
 | 
29 Jun 2026
Research article |  | 29 Jun 2026

Overshoot and (ir)reversibility to 2300 in two CO2-emissions driven Earth System models

Chris Smith, Lennart Ramme, Christopher D. Wells, Ada Gjermundsen, Hongmei Li, Tatiana Ilyina, Adakudlu Muralidhar, Timothée Bourgeois, Jörg Schwinger, Alejandro Romero-Prieto, Chao Li, and Cecilie Mauritzen

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Short summary
We run two Earth System Models models in CO2 emissions-driven mode to 2300 for three climate scenarios. For climate overshoot scenarios, there is a large residual warming in the 22nd century in one model, despite negative CO2 emissions, related to Southern Ocean heat release. In both models, while global mean surface temperature is largely reversible, other global and regional climate models exhibit hysteresis and irreversibility.
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