Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-877-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Climate models with moderate climate sensitivity best simulate the magnitude of Earth's energy imbalance
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- Final revised paper (published on 29 Jun 2026)
- Preprint (discussion started on 21 Jan 2026)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
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RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-163', Anonymous Referee #1, 06 Feb 2026
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Kyriaki Bimpiri, 02 Apr 2026
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RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2026-163', Anonymous Referee #2, 13 Mar 2026
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Kyriaki Bimpiri, 02 Apr 2026
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (13 Apr 2026) by Martin Wild
AR by Kyriaki Bimpiri on behalf of the Authors (20 Apr 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (27 Apr 2026) by Martin Wild
AR by Kyriaki Bimpiri on behalf of the Authors (25 May 2026)
Manuscript
General comments
This study examines the recent positive trend and magnitude of the observed Earth’s Energy Imbalance (EEI) and evaluates their reproducibility in CMIP6 models. The authors demonstrate that while the magnitude of EEI is well captured by CMIP6 models, its positive trend is underestimated by most of them. They further identify a close relationship between EEI and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and attempt to constrain ECS using the observed EEI magnitude, suggesting that models with moderate ECS values are more consistent with observations.
Overall, the manuscript is well written, and the results are interesting and supported by robust analyses. I recommend publication after minor revisions.
Specific comments
I understood that a positive sign indicates energy input into the system, whereas a negative sign indicates energy loss. If this understanding is incorrect, please clarify. Based on Figure 2, the global mean temperature appears to increase when the energy imbalance is positive, which seems consistent with net energy input.
I found this discussion somewhat confusing. You state that the cooler global temperature associated with internal variability during the first period leads to a larger energy imbalance through the negative feedback term (λΔTs). However, my understanding is that this term represents the response to anthropogenic forcing, while the effect of internal variability is captured by ε. Please clarify this point and elaborate on the underlying argument in more detail.
I understand that models with larger ECS tend to have smaller (weaker) negative climate feedback parameters λ. However, the magnitude of λΔT also depends on the value of ΔT. My understanding is that larger-ECS models compensate for energy imbalance through a larger increase in ΔT compared to smaller-ECS models, suggesting that the behavior of λΔT may not be straightforward. Please clarify this interpretation.
Technical corrections
Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5 → Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5
The gray lines are too thin to be easily distinguishable. It would be helpful to slightly thicken the lines or use different colors. In addition, please include information about these lines in the figure legend.
“Multi-model ensemble mean/range” would be more appropriate than “Model mean/range.”
The legends are too small. I suggest placing the legends outside the figures, increasing the font size, and arranging them in two columns.