Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-811-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-811-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
Research article
 | 
23 Jun 2026
Research article |  | 23 Jun 2026

Large impact of extreme precipitation on projected blue–green water partitioning

Simon P. Heselschwerdt, Thorsten Wagener, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Anna M. Ukkola, Yannis Markonis, Yuting Yang, and Peter Greve

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Short summary
Precipitation on land is split into different pathways, contributing to runoff (blue water) or to plant water use (green water). Climate change alters this balance and shapes how future precipitation is divided. We use Earth system models to study these changes and their controls. We find that stronger extreme five-day precipitation is the main control and routes more future precipitation into blue water, even where average precipitation decreases, with implications for freshwater availability.
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