Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-81-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-81-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 1
Research article
 | 
14 Jan 2026
Research article |  | 14 Jan 2026

Characteristics of agricultural droughts in CMIP6 historical simulations and future projections

Lukas Lindenlaub, Katja Weigel, Birgit Hassler, Colin Jones, and Veronika Eyring

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Short summary
This study explores changes in drought characteristic based on projections by 18 different Earth system models. Their performance is evaluated by comparing historical simulations to observation based reanalysis. The analysis of a standardized drought index under different future scenarios revealed that the harvest area that is projected to experience extreme drought conditions towards the end of this century ranges from 10 % to 40 % depending on the emission scenario.
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