Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-651-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Improving terrestrial carbon flux simulations with machine learning and global Earth observations
Download
- Final revised paper (published on 01 Jun 2026)
- Preprint (discussion started on 16 Jun 2025)
Interactive discussion
Status: closed
Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor
| : Report abuse
-
RC1: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2517', Anonymous Referee #1, 01 Aug 2025
- AC1: 'Reply on RC1', Christian Seiler, 20 Aug 2025
-
RC2: 'Comment on egusphere-2025-2517', Anonymous Referee #2, 20 Sep 2025
- AC2: 'Reply on RC2', Christian Seiler, 29 Sep 2025
Peer review completion
AR – Author's response | RR – Referee report | ED – Editor decision | EF – Editorial file upload
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (13 Oct 2025) by Anping Chen
AR by Christian Seiler on behalf of the Authors (24 Jan 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (13 Feb 2026) by Anping Chen
RR by Anonymous Referee #1 (26 Feb 2026)
RR by Anonymous Referee #2 (04 Apr 2026)
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (10 Apr 2026) by Anping Chen
AR by Christian Seiler on behalf of the Authors (13 Apr 2026)
Author's response
Author's tracked changes
Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (15 May 2026) by Anping Chen
AR by Christian Seiler on behalf of the Authors (15 May 2026)
This study applies a machine learning-based Genetic Algorithm (GA) and multiple global Earth observation datasets to systematically optimize poorly constrained parameters in the CLASSIC land surface model. The optimization is conducted over a long historical period (1701–2020), simultaneously targeting multiple variables and using multiple observational data streams, aiming to improve historical simulation performance and assess future terrestrial carbon fluxes under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Despite these strengths, several issues may limit the scientific impact and clarity of the manuscript. My detailed comments are as follows:
L233: The global representativeness of the randomly selected 160 grid cells should be evaluated. These cells may not capture regional differences or small-scale processes, and if the selected grids differ substantially from the target regions, the optimized parameters may not be suitable for local applications. While the 160 grids were randomly selected, it is not stated whether multiple random samplings were performed to test the stability of results. Different random seeds could lead to different optimal parameter sets.
Using the same set of observational data for both fitness evaluation and parameter optimization lacks an independent validation set or cross-validation. This may result in good performance on the training data but poor generalization capability.
L235: The computation time of two weeks is substantial, yet the manuscript does not specify the convergence criteria, number of iterations, or early stopping strategy, raising concerns about potential waste of computational resources. If the solution space is large, GA may still remain trapped in suboptimal solutions.
L253–258: Are the six land surface variables (ALBS, GPP, HFLS, HFSS, LAI, LST) weighted equally in the cost function? Different variables may differ greatly in importance (e.g., GPP is more critical for the carbon cycle), but the manuscript does not explain how weights were assigned.
L270–272: The robustness analysis was conducted with fewer grid cells, a shorter time period, and fewer generations. The representativeness of these reduced settings should be discussed in the manuscript.
L299: The finding that model performance stops improving after 25 generations may be due to GA parameter settings. This should be considered and discussed.
L315: The statement that “some variables did not improve” is made without analyzing the possible causes. This could be due to structural model errors rather than parameter settings, or uncertainties in the observational datasets. The discussion should include potential reasons and possible future improvements.
L338: Although the optimized simulation is slightly better than the default in some statistical metrics, the differences are described as “too minor to be considered meaningful.” The manuscript should discuss why optimizing 28 parameters results in only limited improvement in NBP, which may be related to observation errors, insufficient parameter representativeness, or model structural deficiencies.
L385: While two GA configurations were found to perform better than the default, the manuscript does not analyze their characteristics (e.g., differences in selection/crossover/mutation strategies) or why they perform better. Such analysis would help in better understanding the influence of GA settings on optimization results.
In the main text, some figures and tables could be moved to the supplementary materials to improve readability, such as Figures 1, 2, 7 and Tables 1, 2.