Earth System Dynamics
Earth System Dynamics
ESD
Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-631-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-631-2026
© Author(s) 2026. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 17, issue 3
Research article
 | 
01 Jun 2026
Research article |  | 01 Jun 2026

Attribution of changes in winds over the Southern Ocean from 1950 to 2100

Tereza Jarníková, Colin Jones, Steven Rumbold, and Corinne Le Quéré

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Short summary
Southern Ocean winds drive global climate and have strengthened since 1980 due to Antarctic ozone depletion. We assessed which climate reconstructions best capture these changes using sea level pressure observations. We then used an Earth system model to attribute these changes between ozone and greenhouse gas emissions. Ozone depletion dominated past wind acceleration, but greenhouse gases will drive future changes after 2050.
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